Monday, July 30, 2018

Weekend Box Office Report: "Mission: Impossible Fallout" Accomplishes Record Goal at Top Spot...

Overall business was up 8% from last year, when Dunkirk held off The Emoji Movie ($24.5 million) to stay #1.


MI – Fallout.jpgAs everyone expected, 56-years young Tom Cruise took the top spot at the box office. Mission: Impossible Fallout took the largest (unadjusted) debut yet for the 22-year old franchise, earning $61.5 million in its debut (strong $14,022 per-venue average). In comparison, the biggest 3-day debut beforehand was 2000's Mission: Impossible II ($57.5 million), while the last installment, Rogue Nation, managed $55.5 million in its debut 3 years ago. Let's just face it, it is incredibly hard to maintain this kind of momentum six films in to a franchise. For Cruise, this is the second-biggest debut of his career behind War of the Worlds ($64 million). What else contributed to this huge opening? Strong marketing and strong social media awareness, plus goodwill from Rogue Nation and some of the best reviews for a movie this year (98% positive on Rotten Tomatoes). Audiences were just about as positive, giving the spy thriller an "A" CinemaScore. With a budget of $178 million (which rose thanks to nine weeks added to the schedule as Cruise had an injury, causing production to shut down), this kind of debut was needed.

As far as how it will hold in the coming weeks, there is largely no real competition the remainder of the summer. The only real threat will be The Meg (which is tracking for a $20 million debut in two weeks). There is a chance fans rushed out opening weekend, but strong word-of-mouth might counteract that idea. Overseas, the film overperformed with a $92 million start in 40% of the international marketplace, with plenty more to go. Distributor Paramount and analysts were projecting a $50-55 million debut.

After a very good debut last week, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again showed signs of front-loading. The musical sequel fell an alarming 57% to $15 million in its second weekend, for a still very good $70.4 million gross in 10 days. In comparison, the first Mamma Mia dropped only 36% in its second weekend. It's just about guaranteed at this point that the sequel won't come close to the original's $144 million final gross. Next weekend won't help matters either for its target audience, as The Spy Who Dumped Me is tracking for a decent debut.

Faring worse was the other sophomore sequel, The Equalizer 2 (though this one wasn't expected to hold well with the competition). The Denzel Washington flick plunged 61% to $14 million, for an OK $64.2 million pick-up in 10 days, which is the exact same amount the first film had earned in 10 days. In comparison, the first Equalizer dropped only 45% in its second weekend, however. Expect the first film to take the lead from here.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation had added competition to deal with this weekend. As a result, it fell 48% to $12.3 million. The animated threequel continues to perform fairly well, with $119.2 million picked up in 17 days. Barring it doesn't collapse in the face of Christopher Robin next week, the threequel will probably end up topping the first Hotel Transylvania's $148 million final gross, but the sequel's $170 million final gross may be out of reach at this point. Worldwide, its earned nearly $300 million so far with some gas left in the tank.


TTG Movie Poster 5.jpgMeanwhile, the other new nationwide release underwhelmed in its debut. Despite surprisingly rave reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes), audiences didn't seem to show much interest in Teen Titans GO! to the Movies. The TV series adaptation earned just $10.5 million in its opening (low $3,297 per-venue average), which includes $1 million from Thursday night. This movie turned out to be quite front-loaded over the weekend, with Friday alone accounting for 40% of the weekend's gross. There are a couple reasons that might explain the low weekend, however. First, being a hand-drawn movie, the film had no 3D or IMAX to boost it. Second, competition from Hotel Transylvania and Incredibles kept it from really having a chance at breaking out. Audiences gave the film a "B+" CinemaScore. That plus the reviews might help keep it going through the next few weeks, but competition from Christopher Robin next weekend isn't going to help it. Distributor Warner Bros. kept the budget small on this one ($10 million), and the studio/analysts were expecting close to $15 million.


With the added action and superhero competition, Ant-Man and the Wasp fell 49% in its fourth weekend to $8.4 million. Marvel's latest has earned a solid $183.1 million in 24 days, and close to $400 million worldwide. Fellow Disney and superhero flick Incredibles 2, on the other hand, held up better despite added animation competition. The Pixar blockbuster was off 40% to $7.2 million, for a phenomenal $572.8 million pick-up in seven weeks of release. Overseas, the film continues to grow, with the worldwide total set to pass $1 billion this week.

Continuing to find some late-in-the-game stability, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom was off 40% in its sixth frame to $6.8 million. That was a better hold than what the original Jurassic World had against the previous Mission film. The latest dino blockbuster is at a strong $397.6 million in 42 days, and $1.24 billion worldwide with still a little bit to go. Meanwhile, fellow Universal flick Skyscraper continued to get lost in the midst of all the competition. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's latest was down 53% in its third round to $5.4 million. With a weak $59.2 million in 17 days, the only real original title in the list is on track for a $70 million finish against a $125 million budget. It is making up ground overseas, with the worldwide gross at $265 million so far ($85 million from China). But with Universal's expensive marketing effort, it may still end up in red ink.

Rounding out the Top 10 in its fourth frame was another Universal flick, The First Purge. The horror hit did plunge 56% to $2.2 million. But with a very good $65.5 million in 26 days, its already passed the final gross of the original Purge movie ($64 million). Not to mention, its pulled in five times its production budget ($13 million). Another example of remarkable franchise stability four films in.

That's it for this week. Next weekend, things will start to settle down as August gets under way. The film with the best chance to top Tom Cruise's stunts will be a Disney movie, Christopher Robin. Also opening are young adult thriller The Darkest Minds, spy comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me, as well as nationwide expansions for political drama Death of a Nation and teenage dramedy Eighth Grade. Its' sure to be an interesting weekend. Tune in Wednesday for predictions. :)