August normally means business starts slowing down. Thankfully for this year, August should start on a high note. Business looks to be up from last year, which was led by the weak debut of The Dark Tower ($19.1 million).
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Christopher Robin ($35 million)
I can see this movie going in one of two directions. One, it could break out to solid numbers. Two, it will wind up on the same level as Pete's Dragon ($21 million debut). Thankfully for Disney, Winnie the Pooh and friends are among their most beloved characters (though their animated flicks from the 2000's decade weren't big box office hits per se). And the Mouse House has had tremendous success bringing their animated titles to live-action movies. This looks like one people want to see. Reviews won't be out until tomorrow evening, which may or may not be a good sign. If reviews are positive, it could break out. If not, maybe it will go lower and not take the top spot. But for now, I'm thinking this will be the perfect nostalgia blast to get it to respectable numbers.
#2: Mission: Impossible Fallout ($33 million, -46%)
It is going to be close this weekend, as Fallout is benefiting from stellar reviews and audience response. That being said, there is a chance this could follow a similar path to War for the Planet of the Apes. That threequel had strong reviews and audience reception, and yet failed to really have long legs through the remainder of summer. I'm going to predict somewhere in the middle here for this particular franchise-capper.
#3: The Spy Who Dumped Me ($23 million)
Women have been fairly under-served this summer (at least up until a couple weeks ago). For those looking for something different, this action comedy definitely looks like it will suffice. Early reviews are decent (62% on Rotten Tomatoes), while ticket sales are outpacing Hitman's Bodyguard from last year ($21.4 million). I'm going to predict a debut close to that of previous Mila Kunis comedy Bad Moms ($28 million).
#4: The Darkest Minds ($12 million)
Young adult movies based on teenage books used to be all the rage. Not so much anymore. This time, it's Alexandra Bracken's novel getting the big screen treatment, while Jennifer Yuh Nelson makes the transition from animation to live-action after directing two Kung Fu Panda movies. Despite a strong marketing effort, I am sensing a similar debut to previous August YA release The Giver, a similar film that didn't have strong buzz either. With a $35 million budget, a debut like this wouldn't necessarily spell disaster.
#5: Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again ($9 million, -40%)
Though females have another option this weekend, older females may not want to settle for R-rated hijinks. Thus, I would expect the musical sequel to have a much better hold this weekend.
#6: The Equalizer 2 ($8 million, -43%)
There is one strong advantage for Denzel Washington this weekend. No male-driven action films opening. Expect this to have a stronger hold in its third frame.
#7: Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ($7 million, -43%)
Drac and the rest of his pals can't seem to catch a break. Last weekend there was a new cartoon, this weekend a Disney movie looks to steal families away from the animated threequel.
#8: Teen Titans GO! To the Movies ($6 million, -42%)
Though it has done decently over the week, the added competition from Disney's Christopher Robin probably won't allow this to hold very well.
#9: Ant-Man and the Wasp ($5.5 million, -38%)
A fellow Disney release that might get double-features with Christopher Robin. This might have a solid hold if that's the case.
#10: Incredibles 2 ($4.5 million, -38%)
The Pixar title should continue to hold solidly, thanks to spillover business from Christopher Robin.
One movie to watch out for this week is the expansion of the critically-acclaimed Eighth Grade. The teenage dramedy will expand to just over 1,000 locations, which might lead to a weekend anywhere between $3 and $6 million, though buzz isn't particularly noteworthy. But I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks into the Top 10.
