As the summer season peaks, overall business looks for one more big blockbuster to lead the rest of Summer vacation. Based on comparisons, I believe this weekend will be ahead of this same weekend last year, when Dunkirk held off The Emoji Movie and Atomic Blonde to remain #1. Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Mission: Impossible - Fallout ($60 million)
True, this is the sixth installment in Tom Cruise's action franchise. But, it has a few big things in its' favor. One is very strong social media buzz. Second, great goodwill and audience word-of-mouth from the previous installment (Rogue Nation). Third, fantastic reviews for this installment (97% on Rotten Tomatoes) will convince mainstream audiences to give it a try. Finally, a lack of any real competition following this movie will allow for a chance for strong legs. Rogue Nation managed a $56 million debut and a finish of $195 million. It could be topped. Or this could be an example of a sequel that falls short, we'll see.
#2: Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! ($19 million, -46%)
I can see this holding stronger, as there's no added options for females this weekend. However, the film's front-loaded opening weekend does have me doubting that it will have a strong hold.
#3: The Equalizer 2 ($16.5 million, -54%)
After a very good debut last week, its pretty likely Tom Cruise will probably take a bite out of Denzel Washington's movie here (though this one is rated R in comparison to the other's PG-13).
#4: Teen Titans GO! to the Movies ($15 million)
This is a tricky one to predict. It's a rare 2D hand-drawn animated film without any boosts from 3D or higher formats, which won't help it necessarily. It does have a couple of strong things in its favor. First is the presence of the DC Superheroes (and the film's somewhat mocking tone of superhero movies in general seems appealing). Second, and most importantly, the film is receiving surprise critical acclaim (95% on Rotten Tomatoes). However, competition from two other animated films in the Top 10 will limit its breakout potential. Also, while Teen Titans GO! has been a major success for Cartoon Network with its fanbase of kids and adult diehards, the same argument could be made for My Little Pony (which only earned $20 million in its entire run).
#5: Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ($13 million, -45%)
Obviously, added competition from Teen Titans GO! will prevent this threequel from holding strong.
#6: Ant-Man and the Wasp ($9 million, -46%)
Added competition for comic book fans and action fans will keep this once again from having a decent hold.
#7: Incredibles 2 ($6.5 million, -45%)
Teen Titans GO! will once again steal families away from this Pixar hit.
#8: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($6 million, -47%)
Added action movie competition will not guarantee another strong hold here. The original Jurassic World fell 48% the weekend Rogue Nation debuted, so a similar situation is likely here.
#9: Skyscraper ($5.5 million, -52%)
Too much competition will likely have Dwayne Johnson get lost in the sea of films out in theaters.
#10: The First Purge ($3 million, -41%)
This is the movie that might have the best hold out of all holdovers. No added horror competition. We'll see though, as that might sound outrageous...
