Saturday, November 26, 2016

Thanksgiving Box Office Update #2: "Moana" Slips Behind "Frozen" Pace, Still Strong As Turkey Day A Mix of Strong Drops and Strong Holds.

Moana remained at #1, though it was closer today than it was on Wednesday. Disney Animation's latest megahit did take a bit of a tumble, down 37% from its Wednesday start to $9.9 million on Thanksgiving, for a two-day total of $25.6 million. In comparison, Frozen was off a lighter 27% to $11 million on Thanksgiving Day in 2013, and had earned $26.2 million through its second day. With that in mind, Moana may not beat Frozen now (we will know for sure once Black Friday numbers come in). Need I remind everyone that family movies are often hurt the most by Thanksgiving itself, as families usually stay home. A jump similar to Frozen and Tangled's Black Friday jumps would result in $24 million on Friday. As of now, Moana has been downgraded to $60 million over the three-day weekend, and $85.5 million for the five-day frame, still a very impressive number.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held better, off just 13% from Wednesday to $9.6 million, coming in just $300,000 within Disney's latest princess. The Harry Potter prequel is at $20.6 million in the first two days of the extended frame, and $111.1 million in six days of release. A similar jump to the previous Harry Potter movie opening on Thanksgiving (Deathly Hallows - Part I) would result in a $17.5 million Friday. As of now, Fantastic Beasts has been adjusted up slightly from yesterday to a $42.5 million 3-day and $63 million 5-day.

Doctor Strange was off 16% from Wednesday to $2.5 million, a slightly larger drop than Thor: The Dark World from Wednesday-to-Thanksgiving (which fell 13% in 2013), though the two-day gross is still a little bit ahead ($5.5 million vs. $4.4 million). A similar strategy to The Dark World would give Strange a $5.5 million Friday. As of now, Strange has been upgraded to a $13 million 3-day and $18.5 million 5-day.

Allied was down 14% from its opening day to $2.3 million, for a $5 million 2-day pick-up. The Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard thriller should pull in around $5 million on Friday. Right now, it's 3-day and 5-day forecasts remain unchanged ($11.5 million/$16.5 million). Meanwhile, Arrival actually inched up 5% from Wednesday to $2.2 million, in what should be a $5 million Friday also. The Amy Adams thriller has been upgraded from yesterday to $11 million 3-day and $15.5 million five-day forecasts.

Bad Santa 2 was off 13% to $1.4 million on Thanksgiving, for a mild $2.9 million gross in 2 days. It should jump up to around $3 million on Friday before leveling off. It's been downgraded slightly from yesterday, to a $6.5 million 3-day, and $9.5 million 5-day. Meanwhile, Trolls fell apart on Thanksgiving, falling 54% to $1.2 million as families instead ate turkey. It should jump up a huge amount, perhaps to as much as $3 million on Friday, but its forecasts have been adjusted down greatly from yesterday. Look for a $7 million 3-day and $11 million 4-day, way off from yesterday.

Finally, Rules Don't Apply once again came in 11th place, with a 10% decline from Wednesday to $285,000, for a stale $600,000 pick-up in 2 days. Right now, its $1.4 million/$2 million projections for the traditional and extended frames remain unchanged as it continues to flop.

That's it for today. I will have Friday's numbers up tomorrow afternoon. Hope all had a great day.