Overall Thanksgiving business is on track to be well ahead of last year.
Moana is yet another Disney blockbuster. Their latest animated musical pulled in an excellent estimated $15.7 million on Wednesday, a record for the largest opening day ever for a Thanksgiving release. The previous record-holder, Disney's own Frozen which pulled in $15.2 million on its first Wednesday on this same day three years ago. Frozen would later turn that number into a $93 million 5-day frame. With unanimous critical acclaim (97% on Rotten Tomatoes), Moana will likely wind up with similar business, if not slightly more. For now, I am projecting a slight decline on Thursday before a major hike on Friday. I am projecting a $68.5 million three-day and $97 million five-day.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them added another $11 million on Wednesday, a little bit behind the $13.6 million The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part II earned on this same day last year. If it plays out like Part II, Fantastic Beasts should drop a bit on Thursday before rebounding on Friday. Right now, the Harry Potter prequel is on track for a $42 million three-day and $61.5 million five-day stretch.
Doctor Strange edged out the next new release for third place, and had a fairly strong Wednesday, pulling in $3 million, well ahead of Thor: The Dark World's $2.3 million Wednesday on this same Wednesday three years ago. Thor went on to pull in $15.5 million over the five-day stretch. I think Strange will maintain a slightly stronger pace than that film, with a projected $12 million 3-day and $17.5 million 5-day.
That brings us to Allied, which had an OK start, $2.7 million in fourth place on Wednesday. With middling reviews (60% on Rotten Tomatoes), this will probably fall short of the $20 million expected by most analysts. If it plays out like usual for Thanksgiving releases, it will pull in $11.5 million over the weekend and $16.5 million for the five-day.
Trolls tied Allied for fifth place with $2.7 million on Wednesday, in line with MegaMind's $2.7 million Wednesday from 2010. At it's current pace, I expect the DreamWorks Animation title to match that movie's $12.5 million three-day and $17.5 million five-day. Arrival also remained in the mix, with $2.1 million on Wednesday. I am projecting a $10 million three-day and $14 million five-day for the Amy Adams sci-fi thriller.
The other two new releases failed to pull in a real audience. 13 years after its predecessor was a sleeper hit, Bad Santa 2 only pulled in $1.6 million on its opening Wednesday in seventh place. Amazingly, that's in line with its predecessor's opening day ($1.6 million), though it's way behind in attendance (ticket prices have changed a lot since then). With the Christmas theme, it might be able to hold itself together better over the weekend than others. Right now, I'm projecting a $7 million 3-day and $10 million 5-day, but that might be a bit of a stretch.
Rules Don't Apply completely faltered, opening all the way down in 11th place with just $315,000 from 2,382 locations. At its current rate, I am projecting a $1.4 million 3-day and $2 million 5-day, well behind expectations and a big disappointment for all involved.
That's about it. Next update coming tomorrow evening.
