Overall box office may come in slightly behind last Thanksgiving.
Moana increased 120% from Thanksgiving Day to $21.8 million on Friday, for a $47.4 million 3-day pick-up. While still a strong result, the tick-up isn't quite as strong as Frozen (143%), Tangled (142%) or Penguins of Madagascar (180%). Ultimately, Moana is playing in between Frozen ($26 million Friday) and Tangled ($19.5 million Friday). If it continues to play like both movies, it will trip to about $20 million on Saturday, before adding another $11 million on Sunday. Moana has been lowered again since its Wednesday forecast, with a $53 million 3-day forecast, and $79 million for the extended stretch.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them had a strong jump on Friday, up 92% from Thanksgiving to $18.6 million, for a 3-day pick-up of $39.2 million. That's a stronger jump than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (81%). It should ease a bit to $17 million on Saturday and another $9 million on Sunday. It's been upgraded a little bit to $44.5 million over the 3-day and $65 million over the 5-day.
I will be doing the rest of updated predictions as a chart, with comparisons to yesterday:
#3: Doctor Strange ($13 million 3-day, $18.5 million 5-day, unchanged)
#4: Allied ($11.5 million 3-day, $16.5 million 5-day, unchanged)
#5: Arrival ($10.5 million 3-day, $14.5 million 5-day, down a little bit)
#6: Trolls ($10 million 3-day, $14 million 5-day, up signficantly from Thursday thanks to a record-breaking 240% jump Thursday-to-Friday)
#7: #8: Bad Santa 2 ($5.5 million 3-day, $8.5 million 5-day, down from yesterday)
#8: Almost Christmas ($5.3 million 3-day, $7.3 million 5-day)
#9: Hacksaw Ridge ($5.2 million 3-day, $7.5 million 5-day)
#10: The Edge of Seventeen ($2.7 million 3-day, $3.9 million 5-day)
#11: Rules Don't Apply ($1.5 million 3-day, $2.2 million 5-day, up slightly from yesterday)
