Sunday, November 27, 2016

Thanksgiving Weekend Box Office Report: "Moana" Sails To Top Spot, "Fantastic Beasts" Holds On at #2, "Allied" and Others Disappoint.

Overall business for the 3-day stretch of the holiday weekend wound up in line with last year's Thanksgiving (current projections have it up by 0.4%).


Moana Teaser Poster.jpgAs what several expected, Disney Animation topped the box office with their latest musical princess tale, Moana. The South Pacific-themed adventure pulled in $55.5 million over the three-day weekend (strong $14,329 per-venue average), and a superb $81.1 million five-day gross. Moana is the first Thanksgiving opener in eight years to open on top at the box office, and ranks as the second-biggest Thanksgiving debut ever, just ahead of Toy Story 2 ($80.5 million). Altogether, Moana opened in between the last two Disney princess tales, Tangled ($68 million 5-day) and Frozen ($93.5 million 5-day, which still holds the Thanksgiving record), and it ranks as Disney Animation's fourth-biggest 3-day opening of their history, behind Zootopia ($75 million), Frozen and Big Hero 6 ($56 million). This is a very successful debut, and with near universal acclaim from critics (98% on Rotten Tomatoes) and audiences ("A" CinemaScore), this will play through the holidays. It did turn out to be much more front-loaded than Frozen over the weekend, so don't expect it to reach that movie's $400 million final gross, but that would be too high of a bar to reach anyway.

Moana was originally forecast to pull in $75 million for the 5-day stretch. It also opened in a couple of overseas markets this weekend (it expands further next weekend), pulling in $16.5 million (including $12 million in China). Ultimately, we won't know for sure how much it will pull in until after next weekend, but Moana seems like it might earn at least the same amount as Tangled ($590 million) worldwide. Disney produced the film for $150 million.

After topping last weekend, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them fell to the runner-up position, and actually held on remarkably well for a fantasy flick. The Harry Potter prequel was off 39% over the three-day weekend to $45.1 million over the three-day, and a projected $65.8 million over the five-day stretch. In 10 days, the David Yates production has earned a good $156.2 million. In comparison, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part I was down 61% over the three-day part of Thanksgiving, and The Hunger Games - Mockingjay: Part II was off 49%. The movie has exploded overseas, with an astounding $132 million earned, with China and Japan opening to strong numbers each this weekend ($41 million in the former, a record for the franchise). Fantastic Beasts has pulled in $470 million worldwide in two weeks, and looks set to pull in much more.

The other major fantasy flick in the list, Marvel's Doctor Strange was off 25% over the three-day to $13.4 million, and $18.9 million over the five-day stretch. Marvel's latest hit is at a strong $205.1 million gross in 24 days, and is about to pass the final gross of Thor: The Dark World ($208 million). Benedict Cumberbatch's flick also continues to score big overseas, with $615 million earned worldwide so far with a Japan release set for January.


Allied (film).png
Debuting in fourth place with mediocre results was the latest from Robert Zemeckis, WWII romantic thriller Allied. Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard managed to pull in $13 million over the three-day weekend (mild $4,114 per-venue average) and $18 million over the extended weekend. That was in line with distributor Paramount's expectations, but it is behind the $20-25 million other analysts projected. Considering the $85 million budget, this one could have done better. Thanksgiving weekend is a difficult weekend to launch something for adult audiences, as family audiences usually come out more in droves. Overseas is off to a muted start so far as well. Reviews were mixed-to-positive (61% on Rotten Tomatoes), while the CinemaScore was a "B".









Fellow Paramount film Arrival fared much better this weekend, holding up exceptionally well after dropping last weekend. The Amy Adams sci-fi thriller was off just 7% from last weekend to $11.3 million, and $15.6 million over the five-day period. In 17 days, it has earned a very good $62.4 million, and will likely continue to play well over the next few weeks. Meanwhile, on the other hand, with another new animated musical in theaters, Trolls fell 41% (not a good hold for the holiday weekend) to $10.3 million, and $14.2 million over the five-day stretch. DreamWorks Animation's latest is at $135.1 million in 24 days, and is running $5 million ahead of MegaMind through the same point. Almost Christmas was the lone film to inch up over the weekend, despite new competition. The Universal release was up 5% to $7.6 million, and $9.5 million over the five-day frame. The PG-13 comedy has earned a successful $36.7 million.

Meanwhile, another Christmas-themed comedy failed to bring in audiences. The R-rated sequel, Bad Santa 2 opened behind expectations with $6.1 million over the three-day weekend (dismal $2,091 per-venue average), and $9 million over the five-day. Many had projected this to hit the mid-teens millions, but the 13 year wait proved to be too much for audiences to really care. Reviews were terrible (26% on Rotten Tomatoes), while the CinemaScore was a "C+". This likely means that it will fade fast. The budget was $26 million.

Hacksaw Ridge followed in its fourth weekend, off just 18% over the three-day to $5.5 million, and $7.8 million over the five-day stretch. Mel Gibson's acclaimed war drama has earned a solid $52.2 million in 24 days, and should find its way to over $60 million by the end of its run. Rounding out the Top 10 was The Edge of Seventeen, which was off 38% from its opening to $3 million, and $4.5 million over the five-day stretch. The acclaimed comedy has earned a disappointing $10.3 million in 10 days, but the budget was only $9 million, so things should wind up in the black by the time all is finished.

Finally, Warren Beatty's Rules Don't Apply opened all the way down in 12th place with a horrible $1.6 million over the three-day stretch (just $661 per-venue, one of the worst ever recorded), and $2.2 million in 5 days. This was way behind expectations, and is a disastrous result. Reviews were mixed (57% on Rotten Tomatoes), and the CinemaScore was a a "B-".

That's it. Next weekend, there's not really much opening, as the post-Thanksgiving frame is normally one of the weakest ones of the year to begin with. Moana and Fantastic Beasts are set to dominate again, while horror flick Incarnate will probably only manage an opening less than $5 million in the bottom of the top 10. Stay tuned for more.