Monday, May 25, 2015

Memorial Day Weekend Box Office Report: "Tomorrowland" Edges "Pitch Perfect 2" for #1, but Disappoints.

This Memorial Day Weekend was the lowest-grossing one since 2001, overall business for the 3-day frame was down 18% from the 3-day weekend of last year's Memorial Day frame, when X-Men: Days of Future Past topped the charts with $90 million ($110 million 4-day). On a positive note, this is only the second time in history where the Top 5 movies earned at least $20 million apiece.


Tomorrowland poster.jpgTomorrowland, as expected, tops the box office, but, in a rarity for Disney, fails to succeed. Brad Bird's return to the Mouse House opened to $33.1 million over the three-day period, for a per-venue average of a good $8,301 from 3,972 locations. Through Monday, Disney's original gamble managed $42.7 million. That's slightly ahead of another rare Disney pricey misfire, Prince of Persia: Sands of Time, which earned $38 million over Memorial Day Weekend in 2010. That movie went on to earn $90 million stateside. Tomorrowland came in slightly ahead of the 5-day $41.5 million Thanksgiving start of The Muppets, and ended up mirroring the Memorial Day start of Epic ($43 million 4-day start). This was expected to open around $50 million for the 4-day stretch, and even with that kind of opening, it still wouldn't be a great result given the film was produced for at least $175 million.





But, it couldn't afford to open below that, and sadly, it did. Reviews were down-the-middle (50% on Rotten Tomatoes) and the CinemaScore was a mixed "B". Families could catch up with it over the next month as there's no PG competition until Inside Out, but its going to need strong overseas grosses to break even. And overseas grosses aren't great so far either, $27 million in 56% of the international marketplace. China and Japan have yet to open and could add some much-needed intrigue, but it needs at least $300 million to break even.

It had a chance at possibly upsetting Tomorrowland, but in the end, Pitch Perfect 2 ended up just short with $30.8 million over the 3-day weekend, down 56% from its huge opening last weekend. For the extended frame, it earned $38.3 million, for an 11-day pick-up of a huge $125.7 million, and becoming the ninth film of 2015 to pass the century mark. The heavy weekend drop was expected, but I doubt Universal is complaining. At this rate, Pitch Perfect 2 could theoretically finish above $200 million (as long as it doesn't continue to drop above 50%).

Following in third with a very good hold was Mad Max: Fury Road. The critically-adored action flick fell 46% over the three-day frame to $24.6 million, and $31.3 million in four days. Since its opening 10 days ago, the George Miller reboot is at a solid $95.5 million. For an R-rated actioner, this is a great hold, especially considering that similar films, such as Prometheus and Lucy, fell about 60% on average. Mad Max will have to deal with fellow Warner Bros. film San Andreas next week, but, I think there's a solid chance it could hit $130-140 million, possibly $150 million.

In fifth place for the four-day (but fourth place for the three-day) was the other major summer holdover, Avengers: Age of Ultron, which had its strongest hold to date. The superhero sequel was off 44% to $21.7 million, and a 4-day tally of $28.2 million. In 25 days, the blockbuster sequel is at a phenomenal $411.4 million, already ranking as the 14th-biggest movie ever domestically. Domestically, Ultron passed the final gross of Iron Man 3 today. Overseas, despite a heavy drop in China, the sequel is already at $1.26 billion worldwide, ranking as the seventh-biggest movie in history. Age of Ultron may or may not now end up ahead of the first movie's $1.518 billion final gross. Its all going to depend on how it fares in Japan when it opens in July, as well as how well it holds in the coming weeks in the U.S. and China.

In fourth place for the 3-day (but fifth for the four-day) was the other new release, horror remake Poltergeist. The PG-13 horror flick opened a little higher than expected, pulling in a solid $22.6 million over the three-day period (decent $6,975 per-venue average), and $26.3 million in 4 days. That's the highest-grossing start for a horror flick so far this year, beating out Unfriended ($16 million) and The Woman in Black 2 ($15.8 million). This ended up doing stronger due to solid marketing and being more accessible for younger audiences (Unfriended was R). Reviews were negative (33% on Rotten Tomatoes), and the CinemaScore was a genre-typical "C+". This probably won't hold well in the long run, and the budget was a more-expensive-than-usual (for the genre) $35 million. But, if it can at least hit $50 million (which seems likely at this point) and generate some overseas interest, Poltergeist should be a minor success story for distributor Fox.

Below that massive Top 5 (combining for $167 million in the 4-day period), comes the rest of the list (combining for just $15 million). Hot Pursuit led the rest by default, but continued to lag significantly. The Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy fell 36% to $3.6 million over the 3-day and $4.6 million over the 4-day, and a 18-day pick-up of just $30 million. In the end, Pursuit will be lucky to pass $40 million.

Expanding to 865 locations, historical drama Far from the Madding Crowd had a very solid Memorial Day Weekend stretch. Madding pulled in $2.3 million over the 3-day ($2,543 per-venue average) and $3 million over the extended frame. The well-reviewed flick has earned $6.2 million since its limited opening 25 days ago, and could be on this list for a while.

Tying it for seventh place over the three-day stretch was Furious 7 in its eighth weekend of release. Paul Walker's final film was off 38% over the three-day period to $2.3 million, and $2.8 million over the four-day stretch. The penultimate entry of the franchise is at a massive $347.7 million in 57 days for distributor Universal, and overseas has continued to be spectacular. At $1.499 billion, Furious 7 is just $19 million away from the first Avengers and 3rd place on the worldwide list. Its still going to be a close call if the film can finish ahead.

Two family film holdovers rounded out the list. Paul Blart - Mall Cop 2 took a direct hit from Tomorrowland and fell 47% to $1.9 million over the three-day ($2.6 million for the 4-day). The Kevin James sequel has earned a solid $66.4 million in six weeks of release. DreamWorks Animation's Home continued to play well and has spent nine-straight weeks in this list. The alien invasion film was off a light 31% for the three-day to $1.75 million ($2.5 million 4-day), and is at a very solid $168.8 million gross in 64 days. Home ranks as the 4th-biggest movie of 2015 to date domestically behind Avengers: Age of Ultron, Furious 7 and Cinderella.

And that's it for this weekend Next weekend brings Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson in disaster flick San Andreas, and director Cameron Crowe puts together an ensemble cast (Bradley Cooper, Emma Stone, Rachel McAdams, Bill Murray, Alec Baldwin) for romantic comedy Aloha. How will they fare as the summer season continues to bloom (at a slower rate than expected)? We shall see.