Overall business this weekend probably won't live up to the same weekend last year.
Here is the projected Top 10 for the 4-day weekend:
#1: Tomorrowland ($51 million)
#2: Pitch Perfect 2 ($43 million)
#3: Mad Max: Fury Road ($31 million)
#4: Avengers: Age of Ultron ($30 million)
#5: Poltergeist ($27 million)
#6: Hot Pursuit ($4.3 million)
#7: Furious 7 ($3 million)
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 ($3 million)
#9: The Age of Adaline ($2.5 million)
Home ($2.5 million)
Far from the Madding Crowd ($2.5 million)
Tomorrowland has tracked solidly for a while, as Disney's Brad Bird gamble finally arrives in theaters (I am very excited [and will be seeing it in a week-and-a-half]). For families, this will be the first new PG movie in theaters since Paul Blart 2 and Home. It may not carry huge interest for younger children, but families with older children will definitely show interest. The Disney label certainly has a lot of appeal. But, mixed reviews may or may not bring in mainstream moviegoers. I think an upper-30's millions 3-day start and a four-day start around $50 million may be a little generous, as I'm hoping for a strong debut.
The Poltergeist remake has also enjoyed solid buzz, considering its a PG-13 horror flick that will have wider appeal than the usual R-rated flick. The last major horror film to hit theaters, Unfriended, was rated R and was a mild success, finishing around $35 million. With a strong marketing effort, I can see this breaking out over the weekend, even if it only manages a fourth or fifth place start.
As for holdovers, the surprising strength of Pitch Perfect 2 will allow it to remain in contention for a possible upset over Tomorrowland, though the sequel will likely be more front-loaded than its predecessor, and a second-weekend drop above 50% for the 3-day portion of the weekend seems imminent. Mad Max: Fury Road has seen strong weekday business, and strong reception from both audiences and critics could allow it to hold better than usual for an action flick (around 45-50% for the 3-day portion). Avengers: Age of Ultron will be in some double-features with Tomorrowland, which will allow it to have its best hold yet this weekend (a 3-day frame in the $22-23 million range seems likely).
Sixth through tenth place will all be picking for scraps. Hot Pursuit should get a break after dropping hard last week, even though its still a major disappointment for all involved. The Spring leftovers will get one more go as mainstream audiences flock to theaters over the extended weekend to catch up with older films. Expanding to 700 locations, Far from the Madding Crowd could definitely break out over the extended weekend also.
