Monday, November 26, 2012

RECORD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND! "Twilight", "Skyfall", "Lincoln" Lead With Strong Numbers, "Guardians" Leads Newcomers But Underwhelms....

It was definitely a weekend where people went to the movies.  This years' Thanksgiving wound up being the biggest one ever!! (an estimated $206.7 million over the three-day portion, ahead of 2009's then-record $175.2 million...it was definitely the best weekend I've had to report on this blog yet...because nearly every movie did well, I posted a record 7(!) posters on this post!!!


And for the third out of the last four Thanksgivings, it was all led by Twilight.  The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part II did plunge from its' strong debut last weekend, down 69% to $43.6 million over the three-day weekend, the highest-grossing second weekend for the franchise, and averaging a strong $10,723 from around 7,200 screens at 4,070 theaters.  For the five-day extended frame, Twilight earned $64.4 million.  In 10 days, the finale to the teenage vampire romance has sucked up a huge $227.4 million, or about $6 million ahead of Part I through the same point (but $4 million behind New Moon through the same point).  At this point, dependent on how hard it drops next weekend, Part II looks like it probably will finish its' run with around the same amount New Moon earned ($292.5 million), with still a chance at passing the triple-century mark. Its' already in sixth place for the year  domestically, and has already passed $500 million worldwide thanks to franchise-best numbers in foreign markets.  Thanks to Twilight and The Hunger Games, distributor Lionsgate passed $1 billion for the year; the first-time ever the studio has reached that milestone.



Skyfall PosterHolding onto the second spot, Skyfall showed incredible staying power, down just 14% over the three-day weekend to $35.5 million over the three-day weekend and a strong $50.5 million over the extended five-day holiday.  For the three-day weekend the 23rd James Bond movie averaged an impressive $10,069 from around 5,300 screens at 3,526 theaters (up in theater count from the last two weeks).  In 17 days, the movie has earned a massive $221.1 million, and is already the biggest-grossing James Bond movie ever, passing Quantum of Solace ($167.5 million), and has a long way to go.  This amazing staying power illustrates the enthusiastic word-of-mouth this action blockbuster is receiving.  And with already over $500 million overseas, it could go on to gross as much as an amazing $300 million in the U.S. (ahead of Twilight) and $1 billion worldwide, putting it in the Top 30 all-time domestically and Top 15 all-time worldwide.  Skyfall is certainly turning out to be a much-bigger hit than anyone expected.



But Skyfall and Twilight weren't the only ones to attract monumental business.  Holding onto the third spot for a second straight weekend and expanding into more theaters, Steven Spielberg's critically-acclaimed Lincoln saw the best performance of any holdover.  The historical drama actually increased 22% over the three-day weekend to $25.7 million, along with a spectacular $34.8 million over the extended frame.  For the three-day frame, Lincoln averaged a Top 10-best $12,724 from around 2,600 screens at just 2,018 locations.  The Oscar front-runner is proving to have solid word-of-mouth and has earned a strong $62.8 million since its' limited opening 17 days ago.  The increase is reminiscent of The Blind Side three years ago, which would take the top spot the following weekend (don't expect the same here).  With little competition for older audiences over the next several weeks, Lincoln looks well-positioned to play throughout the holidays, and passing the $100 million mark is now a foregone conclusion.











But its' not all excitement.  The one sour note of this weekend was the shockingly disappointing performance of DreamWorks Animation's latest, Rise of the Guardians (and I thought their slump was over).  The animated flick was only able to take fourth place and $23.8 million over the three-day weekend (only 35% of sales came from 3D showings).  Even the extended weekend was only able to muster $32.3 million.  For the three-day weekend, the animated epic averaged a moderate $6,508 from around 6,800 screens at 3,653 theaters.   Not counting Aardman films, the movie was the least-grossing start for a CGI-animated movie by the studio.  But don't call it a bomb just yet.  Critics gave the movie positive reviews and audiences loved it, giving it an "A" CinemaScore.  Holiday-centric or Santa-involved films usually see strong holds over the Christmas season.  And with very little competition over the rest of the holidays, Guardians should follow a similar pattern.  Distributor Paramount Pictures projected a debut in the mid-30's millions, and DWA produced the film for $145 million.



Originally not expected to do huge business, Ang Lee's Life of Pi was actually able to significantly out-perform expectations, earning estimated $22.5 million over the three-day and $30.6 million over the five-day frame (opening in fifth place).  For the three-day weekend, the movie averaged a good $7,670 from around 5,700 screens at 2,902 theaters (65% of business coming from 3D showings).  That was much stronger than what analysts were expecting, and was double the amount last year's Hugo ($15.4 million five-day) earned (though that was partially due to only being released in less than 1,300 theaters, plus extra competition).  Pi, another potential Oscar contender, benefited from strong critical reception and a good marketing campaign.  Add those together plus an "A-" CinemaScore, and the film should play through the remainder of the holidays, with a strong chance at finishing above $100 million.  Distributor 20th Century Fox was expecting a five-day debut between $15 and $20 million and they produced the film for an expensive $120 million.




Theatrical release poster depicting the protagonist, Ralph, along with various video game charactersEven with more competition added, Disney's Wreck-It Ralph showed no signs of slowing down in sixth place.  The animated hit slid a scant 11% over the three-day weekend to $16.6 million over the three-day frame, and $22.8 million over the five-day frame.  Over the three-day, Ralph averaged a still-good $5,085 from around 5,000 screens at 3,259 theaters, and has earned a solid $149.3 million in 24 days.  The movie did better than what MegaMind did over Thanksgiving weekend ($17.5 million five-day), and the still-strong grosses prove there's great word-of-mouth spawning for this film.  In fact, Ralph has already passed the final grosses of MegaMind and Puss in Boots through the same point.  Unless it is completely destroyed next weekend (family movies usually do suffer steep drops after Thanksgiving), Ralph still stands a chance at reaching $200 million with very little competition over the next month.  But if it were to follow MegaMind's trajectory, it would instead settle for around $175 million.



Meanwhile, the final new release, war drama/remake Red Dawn landed in seventh place with better-than-expected numbers, $14.3 million over the three-day weekend, and $21.7 million over the extended weekend.  The star-studded flick (which was filmed three years ago and shelved for a while) averaged a moderate $5,241 from around 3,200 screens at 2,724 theaters.  Considering the films' surprisingly good buzz, opening better-than-expected really wasn't surprising.  Red Dawn was shelved for a while due to its' former distributor MGM facing bankruptcy problems, and was later picked up by emerging distributor FilmDistrict, who was hoping for a high-teens five-day debut.  Considering all these disadvantages, this is quite a good start.  But being the only film in the Top 10 with negative reviews and a middling "B" CinemaScore, this will likely plummet the worst next weekend, and leave theaters quickly.  MGM produced the film for $65 million, but FilmDistrict picked up the rights for a small fee.



Denzel Washington's Flight also showed remarkable strength over the five-day holiday.  Taking eighth place and expanding further, the Robert Zemeckis flick was only down 4% from last weekend to $8.45 million over the three-day and $11.2 million over the five-day, for a 24-day tally of a strong $74.7 million.  The critically-acclaimed film seems to be holding up tremendously well in the face of Skyfall, Lincoln, and Pi, and does have an outside shot at reaching $100 million before its' all said and done.

At just 367 locations, Oscar front-runner The Silver Linings Playbook got off to an admirable start, earning $4.4 million over the three-day and $5.7 million over the five-day.  The romantic comedy averaged a strong $12,597.  The movie should expand throughout the holidays and could wind up being the next Black Swan.

Rounding out the Top 10, Ben Affleck's Argo, the last remaining Fall holdover continued to show amazing strength in its' seventh weekend.  The thriller was down only 5% to $3.9 million over the three-day weekend, along with $5.1 million over the four-day.  Starting to exit theaters, the critically-adored thriller passed The Town's ($92.2 million) final gross earlier last week, and has earned $98.1 million in 49 days.  The movie should pass $100 million within the next week or so, becoming the 24th movie of 2012 to reach that milestone domestically.

Internationally, Twilight - Breaking Dawn: Part II held onto the top spot with another $97.5 million internationally, bringing its' worldwide cume to close to $580 million already, with much more to go.  Ahead of it, Skyfall repeated in second with another $41.3 million, bringing its' worldwide cume to close to $800 million already.  In a distant third, Life of Pi opened in some Asian territories and took in a solid $17.5 million, while fellow new release Rise of the Guardians got off to a $10 million fourth place start (in just 8 markets).  Rounding out the Top 5 was Argo, which picked up another $6 million for a worldwide tally close to $150 million.