Sunday, January 31, 2016

Weekend Box Office Report: "Kung Fu Panda 3" Solid but Not Quite Awesome Stateside at #1, "Finest Hours" Capsizes...

Overall business was up 33% from this same weekend last year, when American Sniper held onto the top spot once again ahead of Project Almanac ($8.6 million) and Black or White ($6.2 million). I should point out this same weekend last year was Super Bowl weekend, so its not a direct apples-to-apples comparison.


Kung Fu Panda 3 poster.jpgAs expected, DreamWorks Animation topped the box office with their threequel Kung Fu Panda 3. However, the third installment in the 8-year old franchise didn't light the box office on fire, earning $41 million, for a solid $10,367 per-venue average. Granted, this is not a bad start, but it falls short of Kung Fu Panda 2's $47.7 million opening from 2011, as well as The Peanuts Movie ($45 million) and the last DreamWorks effort, Home ($52 million). However, all of those opened on much more popular weekends, whereas 3 opened in late-January, a usually quiet frame at the box office. Kung Fu Panda 3 tried to replicate the early-year success of The SpongeBob Movie and The LEGO Movie, but failed to do so (however, those opened on the weekend after the Super Bowl, whereas this is the week before). Reviews for the film were very positive (80% on Rotten Tomatoes), while the CinemaScore was a strong "A". With zero competition until Zootopia arrives March 4, plus the extended President's Day Weekend ahead, look for the film to hold up well through the month of February.


It was overseas, however, that Kung Fu Panda 3 truly shined. In China, it set the record for the biggest start to date for an animated movie ($58 million in 3 days, partly because its a Chinese co-production). Altogether, it earned $76 million from just a few Asian markets, and had strong starts in South Korea and Russia also. Do not be surprised if this passes $600 million worldwide like its predecessors' did. I have yet to see Kung Fu Panda 3 (sadly), but I will try to get that taken care of in the next week. Distributor 20th Century Fox was being conservative with a $40-45 million prediction.

Last weekend's topper and fellow Fox release The Revenant had a solid hold in its sixth weekend, off just 23% to $12.4 million, for a very strong $138.2 million pick-up in 42 days. This will easily pass $150 million, and could go as high as $175 million if it continues to hold strong through Oscar night. It has also earned $275 million worldwide.

Holdovers all generally held well as audiences caught up with movies after Winter Storm Jonas last weekend. Star Wars: The Force Awakens slid back to third place in its seventh weekend, and was off a light 23% to $10.8 million, for an undeniably strong $895.4 million gross in 49 days. Its also just a couple days away from becoming just the third movie in history to pass $2 billion worldwide (at $1.984 billion and counting so far).

The Finest Hours poster.jpgDisney also took fourth place this weekend as their first offering of 2016 didn't really get off to a good start. The Coast Guard thriller The Finest Hours opened to $10.3 million, for a mild $3,286 per-venue average. That's in line with expectations, but its not a particularly strong start. Hours opened in line with last month's In the Heart of the Sea ($10 million), and also matched the debuts of McFarland, USA ($11 million) and Million Dollar Arm ($10.4 million). However, those latter two had much smaller budgets, while Hours cost $70-75 million to produce. Reviews were OK (60% on Rotten Tomatoes) while the CinemaScore was an "A-". This could play fairly well over the coming weeks with older audiences. But even if it legs out like McFarland or The Hundred-Foot Journey ($53 million), it still won't be profitable and be a rare (easily-forgettable) miss for the Mouse House. Disney didn't release an official projection.






Ride Along 2 recovered decently from last week, off just 33% to $8.3 million, for a solid, if unspectacular $70.8 million gross in 17 days. The first Ride Along had $96 million through the same point. The Boy had a strong hold (though due to audiences rediscovering it following the winter storm), off just 27% to $7.9 million, for a very decent $21.5 million gross in 10 days. Whether or not it hits $30 million, it will still finish a decent success for STX Entertainment (the budget was only $10 million).

Dirty Grandpa was off just 32% to $7.6 million, for an OK $22.8 million pick-up in 10 days, and is on its way to a finish near $35 million. The 5th Wave was also down only 32% to $7 million, for a forgettable $20.2 million gross in 10 days. The YA adaptation may be saved by overseas grosses, as its at $65 million worldwide in two weekends.

Opening all the way down in ninth place was the spoof comedy Fifty Shades of Black, which misfired with $6.2 million ($2,982 per-venue average). That's below expectations. The saving grace for the Open Road Films production, just a $5 million budget on this one. While this obviously is a terrible result for an African-American comedy, the small-level distributor should get out of this one without red ink on its hands.

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi had a solid hold, rounding out the Top 10 with a 34% dip to $6 million. The Michael Bay war flick has earned a decent $42.6 million in 17 days as it makes its way to a $55 million finish. It's not having great results overseas so far, unfortunately, so any profit Paramount makes will be slight at best.

Next weekend is Super Bowl Weekend, so things will slow down a little bit. Openers include the highly-anticipated Coen Brothers film Hail, Ceasar!, horror flick Pride and Prejudice and Zombies, and Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Choice. It should be a fairly quiet weekend as Kung Fu Panda 3 is likely to remain on top.