Overall business should come back to life after two down weeks.
Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Kung Fu Panda 3 ($48 million)
#2: Fifty Shades of Black ($12 million)
#3: The Revenant ($11 million, -31%)
#3: The Finest Hours ($10 million)
#4: Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($8.5 million, -41%)
#5: Ride Along 2 ($7.5 million, -42%)
#6: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi ($6.5 million, -34%)
Dirty Grandpa ($6.5 million, -44%)
#8: The 5th Wave ($6 million, -44%)
#9: The Boy ($5.5 million, -51%)
#10: Daddy's Home ($3.5 million, -34%)
The first of my Top 10 Anticipated Movies of 2016 is opening this weekend (and I am excited about seeing it this weekend!), and I am hoping it does well. However, opening nearly five years after its predecessor won't help Kung Fu Panda 3 very much. It is the first big-studio choice for families in a while, as Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip is finishing around $85 million and Norm of the North is clawing and scraping to get past $20 million. But, comparing it to other animated threequels, Madagascar 3 climbed to a franchise-high ($215 million stateside, $750 million worldwide), while Shrek the Third fell off a bit from the second film's record-smashing high ($375 million stateside, $800 million worldwide).
Animated sequels are hit-and-miss at the box office. And Kung Fu Panda 2 wound up $50 million less than the first film ($165 million vs. $215 million). Another DreamWorks Animation sequel, How to Train Your Dragon 2, also lost some ground ($177 million vs. $217 million). One has to wonder then, why the late-January release date? Then we remember that The LEGO Movie ($69 million) and The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water ($55 million) opened around this time the last two years and wildly succeeded. Those were both nostalgia-infused films (of sorts), so don't expect this to open quite as high. But, with strong reviews on its side (86% on Rotten Tomatoes) and a strong marketing effort, I think it may very well match the second movie's 3-day opening ($47 million).
As for the other releases, I have heard very little about Fifty Shades of Black, as it seems to be a mockery/parody of Fifty Shades of Grey. Buzz has been minimal so far. It could do similar business to last weekend's Dirty Grandpa, but that may be stretching it. Finally, Disney releases coast guard thriller The Finest Hours, which is unfortunately getting negative reception and barely noticeable buzz so far. Disney is pushing it in IMAX 3D, which those surcharges may be enough for it to get to $10 million for the weekend. But, this will likely be a forgettable release for the Mouse House (I will try to catch it in theaters, however).
Oscar contender The Revenant should remain in the mix thanks to continuing Oscar buzz. Star Wars: The Force Awakens will now have competition for its family audience, as well as a fellow Disney release to compete against. However, there's a strong chance Force gets a boost from double-features with Finest Hours (and vice-versa). Ride Along 2 and Daddy's Home should both dodge a bullet and recover thanks to Fifty Shades of Black being rated R. 13 Hours should also hold strong thanks to no competition (The Finest Hours may involve the military to a degree, but it's a gentler Disney release).
On the downside, Dirty Grandpa will lose some steam thanks to Fifty Shades of Black (though they both are aiming for different ethnicities despite both being rated R), while The 5th Wave may or may not hold well in the aftermath of the winter storm. Same goes for The Boy.
