Sunday, April 15, 2012

Weekend Box Office Report: "Hunger Games" Takes Down "Stooges" and "Cabin for Fourth-Straight Round at #1....

Box office was down for only the second time this year...

The Hunger Games spent a fourth-straight weekend at #1, easing a light 36% to $21.1 million, for a mammoth $336.7 million gross in 24 days.  That ranked as the fourth-biggest fourth weekend of all-time (behind Avatar, Titanic and Spider-Man) and marked the first time since Avatar that a movie spent four weekends at #1.  The sci-fi book adaptation now ranks in 22nd place on the all-time chart domestically, and has earned $530 million worldwide.  It will have to surrender the #1 spot next weekend, but at least its' been holding a lot better than what similar films would normally.  A final domestic gross now looks like its' going to be around $380 million, or perhaps a bit higher.  A sequel, Catching Fire, is currently fast-tracking through pre-production for a release in Thanksgiving 2013, though director Gary Ross won't be returning.




 

The biggest grosser among the new releases, as expected, was the Farrelly Brothers' adaptation of The Three Stooges, which took second with $17 million, for a per-theater average of a mild $4,892 from around 4,100 screens at 3,477 theaters.  That was actually a pretty solid start, considering the fact that the Stooges brand of humor isn't considered popular anymore, and it was the third-biggest launch of the Farrelly Brothers' directorial career.  It also opened in line with recent live-action family flicks such as Mr. Popper's Penguins ($18.4 million) and most recently Mirror Mirror ($18.1 million).  Produced for $35 million by distributor 20th Century Fox, the film came in higher than what analysts' were expecting (forecasts were between $11 and $14 million).  Audience reception was mixed ("B-" CinemaScore) and critics were more negative (42% on Rotten Tomatoes).  With Chimpanzee and The Pirates! Band of Misfits opening in the next two weeks, its' going to be hard for Stooges to hold well, but it should still be able to become a success.

Not far behind in third, horror flick The Cabin in the Woods debuted to OK results, with $14.7 million, for a per-theater average of a modest $5,245 from around 3,100 screens at 2,811 theaters.  That was at the high-end of expectations, in which analysts and distributor Lionsgate were expecting an opening in the low-to-mid teens' millions.  It also was double the average amount for a horror film that opened within the last year, even though it was three-fourth's of The Woman in Black's opening.  Positive critical reception (91% on Rotten Tomatoes, rare for a horror flick) and a market place completely devoid of genre competition certainly helped, but audiences weren't nearly as positive (a discouraging "C" CinemaScore).  With horror flicks being front-loaded (for the most part), the film will likely finish with just over $30 million (its' budget is reported to be between that and $45 million).





Titanic's 3D re-release jumped ahead of American Reunion, taking fourth place and holding well with a 31% ease to $11.9 million, for a $44.7 million gross in 12 days.  That's a much better hold than Star Wars - Episode I: The Phantom Menace's second weekend as well as Beauty and the Beast's (its' about to eclipse both of them in total gross).  The 3D re-release hit record levels overseas, with nearly $100 million taken in over the weekend, including a record $67 million six-day start in China.

Meanwhile, Reunion didn't hold well for an R-rated comedy.  The fourquel plunged 51% to $10.5 million, for a 10-day total of an OK $39.7 million.  While the drop was less than two of the three entries in the series, its' cumulative gross is way less.  Looks like the American Pie revival will likely be heading for a $55 million finish, a little over half of all three movies.

Wrath of the Titans followed in sixth with a 53% drop to $6.9 million, which was actually not bad for a major action flick.  Still though, the sequel has earned a disappointing $71.3 million in 17 days and will likely close with just over $80 million.  The good news is that its' earned close to $200 million overseas and will likely end up with $350 million worldwide.  In the face of The Three Stooges, Mirror Mirror actually held very well.  The fantasy comedy eased 38% to seventh place and $6.8 million, for a 17-day total of a decent $49.3 million.  Based on recent trajectories, the family film is heading for a $65 million finish, which is actually pretty solid considering the films' low expectations.
21 Jump Street continued holding well one month after its' release, easing 34% to $6.6 million and slotting in eighth place.  The action comedy has seen great legs and has earned $120.3 million in 31 days.  Within days it will pass Safe House and The Vow to take third place for the year by far domestically behind The Hunger Games and The Lorax.

Meanwhile, the other new release was unable to successfully bring in an audience.  Space action flick Lockout, despite having a somewhat good fanbase, earned just $6.2 million on its' debut, slotting in ninth place and averaging a dismal $2,700 from 2,308 theaters.  That was on par with expectations, but it was far from a strong opening.  Apparently distributor FilmDistrict, who had a strong debut year, is starting to have more disappointments.  Audience reception was mixed ("B-" CinemaScore) and the budget was $20 million, so at least it won't be a huge financial disaster, if it can eclipse that number with overseas grosses.










Rounding out the Top 10 in its' seventh weekend in theaters is Dr. Suess' The Lorax, which eased 39% to $3.1 million, for a strong $204.5 million gross in 49 days.  It hasn't been nearly as potent overseas ($75 million so far), but it has seen decent legs so far as none of its' drops have been above 50% by far.

In milestone news, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island crossed the $100 million barrier, becoming the sixth film of 2012 to reach that mark.  It came in 13th place this weekend, increasing 34% to $720,000 this weekend, and has earned $100.5 million since its' debut ten weeks ago.  It looks well-positioned to eclipse its' predecessors' final gross.

Overall box office was down 12% from last year when 20th Century Fox and Blue Sky Animation unleashed Rio, which topped the box office with a solid but unspectacular $39.2 million.  The animated flick would go on to gross close to $150 million domestically and nearly $500 million worldwide, ranking as the 10th biggest film of 2011 in international terms.  Long-anticipated horror sequel Scream 4 debuted to disappointing results in second, with just $18.7 million, on its' way to just shy of $40 million domestic.  Hop flinched in the face of Rio, dropping 50% to third after two weeks on top with $10.7 million.  Hanna and Soul Surfer rounded out the Top 5, both collecting $7.3 million.

Here is the final Top 10:

#      Movie                                                                Final Numbers          Projected Estimates          My Predictions
                       
1     The Hunger Games                                       $21,096,824              $21,500,000             $16,500,000
2     The Three Stooges                                       $17,010,125              $17,100,000             $15,000,000
3     The Cabin in the Woods                             $14,743,614              $14,850,000             $13,000,000
4     Titanic (3D)                                                    $11,930,249              $11,625,000             $10,500,000
5     American Reunion                                        $10,473,810              $10,700,000             $13,000,000
6     Wrath of the Titans                                        $6,906,209                $6,905,000               $7,000,000
7     Mirror Mirror                                                   $6,847,924                $7,000,000               $7,500,000
8     21 Jump Street                                                 $6,558,868                $6,800,000               $6,000,000
9     Lockout                                                            $6,231,836                $6,250,000               $6,000,000
10   Dr. Suess' The Lorax                                      $3,051,285                $3,020,000               $3,500,000