Out of all three new releases, Nicholas Sparks' book adaptation The Lucky One looks like it will be the one to finally unseat The Hunger Games to take #1. Starring Zac Efron, the romantic drama looks like a combination of earlier this years' The Vow and 2010's Dear John (the latter was also a Sparks book). In a marketplace that has been completely devoid of date night movies, couples and older females will certainly show up at multiplexes this weekend. Date night films generally do solid business, and dependent on how well they're recieved, do have good word-of-mouth. Efron does have a fanbase, he starred in the hit 17 Again ($23 million opening, $60 million finish) on this same weekend three years ago. Critical reception has been negative by far, but other Sparks book adaptations have been successful, with Dear John ($80 million), The Notebook ($80 million) and The Last Song ($65 million) all turning in solid numbers. Debuting in over 3,000 theaters, The Lucky One should be in for $23 million for its' debut weekend, on its' way to around $65 million domestic.
The next new release is aiming for the African-American audience, which hasn't had much to see this year besides Tyler Perry's Good Deeds. Book adaptation Think Like A Man does have some starpower and it has been rising steadily in buzz all this past month, but one has to wonder if that is due to an inflated fanbase. While films targeting that audience have been successful, they've been very front-loaded (last years' Jumping the Broom and all the Tyler Perry films are prime examples), which could hurt its' playability. But promotion has been strong over the last few weeks, indicating that awareness is high. Mixed to negative reviews, and a low theater count may do a bit more damage as well. Opening in just around 1,800 theaters, Think Like A Man might take in about $19 million and second place for its' debut. The film should end up with roughly $40 million domestic.
Last and unfortunately least, is Disneynature's latest documentary, Chimpanzee. The fourth release from Disney's nature doc. division releases just in time for Earth Day (which lands on Sunday this year). And while Disney has given this one a big promotional push, it just doesn't seem like audiences are seeing these kinds of films like they used to. And audience fatigue has shown with the first three releases (Earth earned a solid $15 million in its' first five days on its' way to $33 million, while Oceans and African Cats had $6 million three-day starts [Oceans took in $8.5 million since its' Thursday start] and finished with $19 million and $15 million). However, it does seem like this one has seen a bit better tracking compared to the latter two, and being the only G-rated movie in theaters right now will certainly bring in the younger kids. Narrated by Tim Allen and opening in over 1,500 theaters, Chimpanzee should open in sixth place this weekend, and earn a decent $6.5 million for its' debut, on its' way to roughly $20 million stateside.
After four consecutive weekends on top, The Hunger Games will finally have to surrender the top spot. With The Lucky One targeting older teens, a 45% drop may result giving the sci-fi blockbuster roughly $12 million for a one-month tally of a dynamite $355 million. Last weekend's top new release The Three Stooges should hold decently as there is no new competition for boys that would be bored with a nature doc. A 35% drop may result giving the Farrelly Brothers adaptation $11 million for a 10-day total of a decent $32 million. Titanic (3D) should round out the Top 5 in its' third weekend, and it should still hold decently despite more competition. A 40% drop to roughly $7 million would give the re-release a solid $55 million in 19 days.
Here's a look at the rest of the Top 10:
#7: The Cabin in the Woods ($6 million, -59%)
#8: American Reunion ($5.5 million, -48%)
#9: Mirror Mirror ($4.5 million, -34%)
#10: 21 Jump Street ($4 million, -40%)
