Unfortunately, despite some good numbers, its' not enough to improve on last year...
The Hunger Games held the #1 spot for the fourth-straight Friday, with an estimated $6.5 million, down 50% from last Friday. Based on recent trajectories, Games is headed for a weekend of at least $19 million, and at most $22 million. I'm going to go at the low end of those numbers with a $19.5 million weekend.
The biggest opener, as expected, was The Three Stooges, which wasn't too far behind with an estimated $5.7 million. That Friday gross was in line with recent family films such as Mr. Popper's Penguins ($5.8 million Friday) Dolphin Tale ($5.9 million Friday), and most recently Mirror Mirror ($5.8 million Friday), and was also higher than what analysts were expecting (projections were looking at a $13 million weekend which normally suggests a $3.5-$4 million Friday). Critical and audience reception was mixed (52% on Rotten Tomatoes and "B-" CinemaScore), but the main quesiton is, will it get a big Saturday bump? If it plays like that, it does have a chance at outpacing Hunger Games. But right now, I'm going to expect a second place start of around $18 million.
Third place went to The Cabin in the Woods, which also did pretty good numbers, with an estimated $5.5 million. That's down from The Woman in Black and was less than a third of The Devil Inside, and word-of-mouth wasn't good at all ("C" CinemaScore). Still though, the horror flick should be higher than average for recent openings in the genre with a $13 million weekend.
Rounding out the Top 5 were Titanic (3D) and American Reunion tied for fourth place, with estimates of $3.3 million each. Both are heading for $10 million weekends, with Titanic showing much more sustainability than Star Wars and Beauty and the Beast's 3D re-releases and American Reunion dropping hard for a R-rated comedy.
The other new release, sci-fi flick Lockout came right in line with expectations. Debuting in sixth place on Friday, it earned an estimated $2.3 million. A mixed "B-" CinemaScore grade indicates mixed word-of-mouth, and it should be able to eke out $6.5 million for the weekend, where it could drop as low as eighth place behind Mirror Mirror and 21 Jump Street.
Here is what the Top 10 looks like for the weekend:
#1: The Hunger Games ($19.3 million, -42%)
#2: The Three Stooges ($17.7 million)
#3: The Cabin in the Woods ($13.1 million)
#4: Titanic (3D) ($10.7 million, -38%)
#5: American Reunion ($10.2 million, -53%)
#6: Mirror Mirror ($7.2 million, -35%)
#7: 21 Jump Street ($6.8 million, -32%)
#8: Lockout ($6.5 million)
#9: Wrath of the Titans ($6.3 million, -57%)
#10: Dr. Suess' The Lorax ($3.2 million, -37%)
Official weekend studio estimates to be released tomorrow afternoon...
