Out of all three new releases, it appears that the Farrelly Brothers' adaptation of The Three Stooges has the best chance at unseating The Hunger Games. The reason why? Its' pretty obvious, the famous comedic trio has always been popular, even though they haven't been updated for the 21st century at all (like other familiar franchises have). Still nevertheless, parents that remember Moe's anger issues, Larry's crazy ideas, and Curly's obnoxiously and hilariously high-pitched voice will more than want to introduce this to their kids. Critical reception has been negative, as expected, but audiences won't pay attention to that, plus competition is light, with Mirror Mirror really only posing as a threat (though that films' target audience is girls, who probably wouldn't be interested in this). Debuting in over 3,400 theaters, look for Stooges to bumble their way to a decent $15 million start, opening in the second spot. It should then finally be knocked out of theaters at around $50 million.
Also hoping to take out Hunger Games is horror comedy The Cabin in the Woods, which is hoping to ride the horror streak that The Devil Inside and The Woman in Black are riding (Silent House however didn't come close to riding it). With no competition and rising tracking numbers though, it appears that this is hoping to at least open nearly as big as the second of the three. One big advantage the film has is that it stars Chris Hemsworth (a.k.a. Thor), who has emerged as a bankable star in recent memory. However, with older teenagers yanked in different directions (The Hunger Games), its' hard to imagine this really breaking out. Critical reception has surprisingly been positive thus far which should help it. Opening in around 2,600 theaters, Cabin should scare up a pretty good $13 million, good enough for third place. The movie should then be front-loaded and probably finish with roughly $30 million
The other new release doesn't look anywhere near as impressive. Sci-fi action comedy Lockout is hoping to benefit from starring Guy Pearce and Maggie Grace. However, while it does have somewhat of a fanbase, it has yet to prove in its' tracking that its' something worth wondering about. Plus, the same case with Cabin, with casual moviegoers and older teenagers being pulled in different directions, its' certainly going to be inconsequential. Debuting in around 2,300 theaters, Lockout should shoot up a stale $6 million and will probably only earn eighth place for the weekend. A final domestic tally in the forgettable $15 million range seems about right.
The Hunger Games will hold the top spot for a fourth-straight weekend, unless if it drops hard like a blockbuster normally does. With strong daily business, I'd expect a 50% drop to $16.5 million, for a 24-day total of nearly $335 million. American Reunion is hoping to continue holding well, and with no new competition for its' audience, a better-than-average hold should occur. A 40% ease to $13 million would give it $42 million in 10 days. Titanic's 3D re-release will round out the Top 5, and it should hold reasonably well for a re-release, but it will still drop a bit substantially since its' date night crowd might've already rushed to see it. A 40% drop to $10.5 million would give it $44 million in 12 days.
Here's a look at the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Mirror Mirror ($7.5 million, -33%)
#7: Wrath of the Titans ($7 million, -52%)
#9: 21 Jump Street ($6 million, -40%)
#10: Dr. Suess' The Lorax ($3.5 million, -30%)
