Box office will most certainly be down from last year, when Fast Five dominated the box office charts with an eye-popping $86 million on opening weekend...
Overall, the film that has the best chance at the top spot is The Five-Year Engagement, a romantic comedy produced by Judd Apatow and starring Jason Segel and Emily Blunt. While tracking hasn't been very strong so far, Apatow has a strong fan base and this is the first R-rated comedy on the market since a now seven-week old 21 Jump Street. Both Segel and Blunt have proven to be modest draws domestically, with Segel's last project starring in the reboot of The Muppets and Blunt's last co-starring role was with Matt Damon in The Adjustment Bureau. Date audiences will be split between this and The Lucky One, though more male audiences will likely go for this one more than the female-centric Efron film. Reviews have been generally positive so far which will help it to boost its' gross somewhat. Debuting in over 2,800 theaters, Engagement should earn a relatively solid $23 million on its' debut, earning first place and if it can spawn positive word-of-mouth, could see a finish as high as $70 million.
The other three releases don't look as strong, though the 3D stop-motion animated film The Pirates! Band of Misfits looks like it will fare better than the other two. Produced by British-based Aardman Studios, the creators of last year's Arthur Christmas as well as Chicken Run and Wallace & Gromit, the comedy stars Hugh Grant in his first animated role alongside Salma Hayek and others. While tracking has been hardly relevant compared to similar films, there are a number of advantages heading into its' debut frame. Promotion has been aggressive, showing commercials in front of almost every movie, and surprisingly, critics have been giving it rave reviews which also will help. Another strong factor is that the film could see strong legs from being the only family film on the market until Madagascar 3 arrives in June, though Chimpanzee and The Three Stooges will still take away a bit of business. Opening in over 3,000 theaters, Pirates should pillage around $15 million worth of booty, slotting in third place and it should play well over the next several weeks to finish between $50 and $60 million.
Horror thriller The Raven also arrives in theaters. Supposedly based on the last days of acclaimed author and poet Edgar Allen Poe's life (not) and starring John Cusack, the film's tracking, similar to the other three, hasn't been relevant. The Cabin in the Woods is starting to fade away so that should give a little room for Raven to steal some of that audience, but with mediocre reviews, a low theater count and no other real starpower, it will be hard for it to break out. Opening in just over 2,000 theaters, Raven should scare up about $9 million for its' debut, where it will likely end up in sixth place for the weekend. It should then go on to finish with around $25 million.
Finally, Jason Statham returns to theaters in action thriller Safe. I've already said this, but again, tracking has been very poor (The Avengers is literally slaughtering them in terms of Twitter counts and Facebook likes), though casual audiences not into horror, animation, or romance might find a nice alternative with this film. But the plot about protecting a little girl from danger sounds a bit too familiar, and while Statham has his fanbase, true-blue action films usually struggle at the box office. And considering the large amount of pics yanking adults in different directions, there just may not be any room for Safe to thrive. Opening in around 2,200 theaters, Safe should protect about $7 million this weekend, landing in seventh place. The film should then go on to finish with roughly $20 million.
Following its' large $33.6 million debut last week, Think Like A Man won't face competition from its' core audience, but films targeting African-American audiences don't usually hold up well (even with ones earning "A" CinemaScores). So a 45% drop might result, giving the film around $18 million and second place for its' second weekend, for a 10-day total of a strong $61 million. The Lucky One will have The Five-Year Engagement to deal with, though females under the age of 18 might not be interested in Apatow's R-rated flick. A similar drop (45%) would give the Zac Efron flick around $13 million, sliding to fourth place and earning $39 million gross in the same amount of time. The Hunger Games will round out the Top 5, and it should continue holding well with no added competition, a 35% slide to $9.5 million would give it a strong $368 million in six weeks.
Here's a look at the rest of the Top 10:
#8: Chimpanzee ($6 million, -44%)
#9: 21 Jump Street ($3 million, -35%)
#10: American Reunion ($2.8 million, -49%)
