Here are early week-by-week forecasts based on tracking:
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July 6
Debuting three days earlier, Sony tries to revive the Spider-Man franchise with The Amazing Spider-Man. Starring Andrew Garfield (not Tobey Maguire) and Emma Stone, the potential franchise-starter has been rising in buzz over the last month (though that could be said for a lot of other films). For many fans of the franchise, this one is somewhat of a head-scratcher, as it is a prequel and not a follow-up to the ones starring Tobey Maguire. Plus, being sandwhiched between G.I. Joe and The Dark Knight Rises will limit its' chances at having a strong run. Still though, the 4th of July week is prime for launching a major film, in which audiences could show up in strong numbers for.Recently added to the schedule, 3D concert film Katy Perry: Part of Me debuts on the 4th of July, which lands on that Wednesday. Perry's fanbase is huge, but not in the league of Hannah Montana, Justin Bieber, and Michael Jackson whose 3D concerts debuted to $31 million and $29 million for the latter two. With some good early promotion and a summer release date advantage (the other three were released in the Spring and Fall), this one should at least come close to the latter two's debuts.
Finally, crime thriller Savages hopes to draw in older crowds not interested in the other two. The movie does boast an impressive cast, including Taylor Kitsch, Uma Thurman, Salma Hayek and John Travolta, but its' R rating will limit its' business as other films are yanking audiences in different directions.
Long-Distance Prediction: Spider-Man should win with at least $50 million for its' opening weekend and $100 million since its' Tuesday opening. Katy Perry should manage an opening in the mid-20's millions for its' first four days while Savages will probably have to go for $10 million.
July 13
Arriving three years after Dawn of the Dinosaurs, Ice Age: Continental Drift is the fourth adventure in the hit film series. Dinosaurs debuted on the 4th of July weekend in 2009, earning an acceptable $41 million in its' first weekend, but would hold up well throughout the remainder of the summer, earning nearly $200 million stateside. It would also become an international blockbuster, with nearly $900 million worldwide. This fourth installment looks to be in an odd position, even though there isn't any other family films debuting in July (which will benefit it), but animated sequels have been struggling as of late, and based on tracking, it would take a real knack for this to reverse the trend. Shrek Forever After, the last animated fourquel released, earned two-thirds of its' predecessor stateside, while Kung Fu Panda 2 and Cars 2 both finished $50 million behind their predecessors, a trajectory that Ice Age 4 will likely follow, but more than make up for it overseas.The only other release slated for that weekend is animation giant Seth McFarlane (Family Guy, The Cleveland Show, American Dad), who makes his live-action directorial debut with Ted, starring Mark Wahlberg, Mila Kunis, and McFarlane. The R-rated comedy should take advantage of McFarlane's fanbase, plus no additional competition (as similar films will be in their fourth weekend by then), but it does look a little odd (a teddy bear coming to life doing crass jokes...), which may turn off casual moviegoers.
Long-Distance Prediction: Ice Age 4 should top the weekend with at least around $40 million for its' debut, while Ted will probably settle for an opening in the high-teens millions.
July 20
The highest-anticipated movie of 2012 arrives with no other film brave enough to compete against it. Christopher Nolan wraps up his hugely-beloved Batman movie series with The Dark Knight Rises, which follows four years after The Dark Knight shattered records with a $158 million opening and a $530 million finish domestic, ranking third on the all-time domestic chart behind Avatar and Titanic. While series-ending films tend to be the highest-grossers, Rises has recieved mixed reception from its' trailers and its' 15-minute sneak peak shown with IMAX showings of Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol. But even if it is less-recieved and it doesn't gross as much as predecessor in the long run (sequels tend to be much more front-loaded), there's still so much anticipation that Rises has a strong shot at claiming the opening weekend record from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II.
Long-Distance Prediction: I'm not going to guess an official number at this moment, but Dark Knight will be #1 with at least $135 million to at most $180 million for its' debut.
July 27
The month quiets down with two releases with modest expectations. The sci-fi comedy Neighborhood Watch boasts a A-list cast, with Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn and Jonah Hill headlining a comedy that could offer strong counter-programming for Dark Knight Rises. Tracking has been pretty strong and out of all the comedy releases this year (based on buzz), it seems that this has the best chance at riding the $100 million wave that other comedies have done in the past year.
Also debuting is another head-scratcher. Fourquel Step Up: Revolution debuts almost two years after Step Up 3D was the franchise's lowest-grosser at just over $40 million domestic and over $100 million worldwide. Still though, the dance franchise is popular, and could entice teenagers that want something different after five comic book adaptations. The only disadvantage is that this newest one is being distributed by Summit Entertainment, while the third one had Disney distribute it, so the marketing and promotion may not be nearly as relevant and might limit business.
Long-Distance Prediction: Dark Knight should still win with at least $45 million in its' second weekend, while Neighborhood Watch could earn around $30 million for second place, and Step Up might settle for fourth or fifth with an opening in the low-teens millions.
