Last August earned $897.3 million, up 2.5% from 2010, but down 1% from 2009...
Here are some early week-by-week forecasts based on tracking...
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August 3
The first weekend of August is looking to be very competitive.
Jeremy Renner (Mission Impossible - Ghost Protocol; The Avengers) replaces Matt Damon in action series reboot The Bourne Legacy, which releases five years after The Bourne Ultimatum opened to $69 million on its' way to over $210 million domestic, being the highest-grossing film in the franchise. For this one, which seems more like a far-into-the-future sequel (or a spin-off), its' kind of hard to tell if audiences will show up for this one (especially without Damon, who has a large fanbase). Still though, the Bourne films are popular and this one should still at least turn in decent results.
Counter-programming against Bourne is sci-fi action flick Total Recall, starring Colin Farrell and Jessica Biel. The film has recieved a good amount of buzz early, which is a good sign, but the budget is reported to be a huge $200 million, which probably won't be possible to make domestically. Plus the competition with Bourne will limit business, but it could become a late-summer sleeper for those who aren't interested in its' competition.
Finally, family threequel Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days arrives a year and a half after Rodrick Rules opened at #1 with $25 million, but was more front-loaded and finished about $10 million behind the original Diary. Opening in the summer will help Dog Days to have stronger weekday business, and with the short wait between the two films, it does appear that the fanbase is excited to see more middle-school humor. Plus with it being the first family choice being released since Ice Age 4, it could at least open in between its' two predecessors.
Long-Distance Prediction: Bourne, perhaps the last major summer film released this year, should win with at least $40 million.
August 10
Box office will start quieting down for the second weekend of August, though it will be the battle of the comedies. Out of both new releases though, The Campaign looks like it has the best chance at taking down Bourne for #1. Starring Will Ferrell, Zack Galifianakis, and Jason Sudeikis, the film has yet to generate any type of anticipation. But the bankability of its' stars should result in relatively strong numbers.
Competing against it is another comedy, Hope Springs. The starpower for this is also strong, with Meryl Streep, Tommy Lee Jones, and Steve Carell starring. It will have the disadvantage of competing against Campaign, and with adults being yanked in different directions, its' going to be hard for it to break out. But with the starpower, it could still post modest numbers.
Long-Distance Prediction: Unless if Bourne does better than expected, Campaign should win with a mid-20's millions gross. Hope Springs might shoot for an opening in the low-to-mid teens millions.
August 17
Another competitive weekend. Action sequel The Expendables 2 arrives two years after the original Expendables was a hit with a $32 million opening and a $100 million finish domestically. With a short wait time, plus the return of the original cast (along with the additions of Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bruce Willis, and Liam Hemsworth), this could at least come close to replicating the success of its' predecessor.
Two family films duke it out head-to-head for the weekend. Debuting two days earlier on that Wednesday, Disney unleashes family drama The Odd Life of Timothy Green, starring Jennifer Garner and Joel Edgerton. The film does have a few adult aspects, but it also focuses on a heartwarming story that could connect with a lot of families. Plus being from Disney, it will also be the first choice for many families as well, and could play well through Labor Day Weekend.
The last major animated film of the summer, ParaNorman, also arrives from the creators of Coraline, which was a success with a $16 million opening on its' way to over $75 million domestic. This one looks different, and it may be a bit too scary for young kids, but with heavy promotion so far, and with no new animated flicks arriving until mid-September, and this does have an outside shot at breaking out.
Finally, musical drama Sparkle is hoping to take in audiences that saw films such as DreamGirls and Joyful Noise ($30 million). The film is notable for being the final project for music legend Whitney Houston, who passed away a few months ago, as well as being the film debuts for pop starlet Jordin Sparks and multi-genre artist and The Voice judge Cee Lo Green. While it probably won't be a choice for families, the film could easily score solid numbers from Houston's huge fanbase and the fact that there's no real competition for the female audience.
Long-Distance Prediction: Expendables 2 should win the weekend with around $30 million. Timothy Green, ParaNorman, and Sparkle should all score openings in the mid-teens millions.
August 24
The rest of the month's offerings aren't as impressive. Out of all three releases, action flick Premium Rush has the upright advantage. It has Oscar-nominated actor Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and has recieved some early buzz. It will have its' business limited by The Expendables 2 to a degree, but if it can get a significant marketing push, then it should do just fine.
Horror thriller The Apparition will have the advantage of being the first horror film in theaters since June, which should give it a significant advantage. But, with not much promotion for it so far, it's looking more to open in the range of Fright Night and Don't Be Afraid of the Dark from last year, as late-summer horror films don't usually fare well.
Finally, late addition/action comedy Hit and Run hopes to be a star vehicle for Kristen Bell, who is most famous for being the title character in Forgetting Sarah Marshall. Co-starring Bradley Cooper, this film has the best starpower of all three, but with quite a bit of competition around, its' going to be hard for it to pull in solid business.
Long-Distance Prediction: Premium Rush could win with an opening close to $20 million, while the other two will likely debut closer to $10 million.
I will not be covering August 31 because it is Labor Day Weekend, which three out of the four days of the weekend land in September...
Final part coming later this afternoon.
