Here are some early week-by-week forecasts based on tracking...
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June 1
June kicks off with the second of this years' two Snow White movies, Snow White and the Huntsman. The fantasy action flick features Charlize Theron as the Queen, Chris Hemsworth (Thor) as the Huntsman and the Twilight movies' Kristen Stewart as Snow White. Distributor Universal Pictures is hoping to start a new franchise, and the trailers have already excited fans of the Twilight movies. Debuting a sneak peak in front of Breaking Dawn - Part I and The Hunger Games is a brilliant move, and tracking is starting to surge. However, with it being sandwhiched between Men in Black III and Promethus, its' unlikely that it will earn blockbuster numbers, but based on anticipation alone, it should easily outdo its' rival Snow White film, Mirror Mirror just a few days after its' opening.The only film opening in the face of Huntsman is horror sequel Piranha 3DD. The 3D horror comedy is a major question mark, considering that its' predecessor, Piranha 3D, was only barely able to recoup its' $25 million budget in its' entire run. However, it could still benefit from being the only horror film released for most of the summer.
Long-Distance Prediction: Snow White should easily take the top spot with at least $40 million for the weekend, while Piranha will probably snag a lower spot in the Top 10 with a debut below $10 million.
June 8
Sci-fi epic Prometheus finally makes its' way into theaters after being in development for the past decade. Starring Michael Fassbender, Idris Elba, and Charlize Theron (and yes, she's in two movies in two weeks), the trailer has already excited several fans, with early tracking showing to be very strong. However, the film is very dark, and if it ends up with an R rating, its' chances at breaking out will be very slim. If it can get a PG-13 (which is what distributor 20th Century Fox is hoping for), then its' chances at bringing in audiences are much higher. A lot of people are getting confused that this is a prequel to Alien, but the producers have confirmed that it isn't. But even if a high opening is attainable, it will be very front-loaded, considering past trajectories for similar films.
Also opening is 3D animated threequel Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted, which arrives three and a half years after Escape 2 Africa earned a surprisingly strong $60 million over its' debut weekend, but wound up 10% behind its' predecessor in final gross terms. On the positive side, Europe's Most Wanted is opening on a weekend when kids are out of school and will also will be the first family-oriented film released in six weeks. That may sound like a nice advantage, but there's a lot working against it too. DreamWorks Animation has been in a slump over the last couple of years, with their openings lowered to the mid-40's millions and final grosses downgraded to the $150 million range (they used to open films to over $60 million and finish with nearly $250 million). And considering that last year's animated sequels Cars 2, Kung Fu Panda 2, Hoodwinked Too! and Happy Feet Two all did significantly less business than their predecessors, plus opening just two weeks ahead of Brave will also limit its' potential. Still though, even if it doesn't do strong business stateside, it should be in for solid returns overseas.Long-Distance Forecast: In what should be an extremely tight race, Promethus and Madagascar 3 are both due for openings in the $40-$50 million range, but I'm going to give the edge to the sci-fi epic.
June 15
The box office quiets down for one brief weekend with two films with modest expectations. The director of the hit broadway adaptation Hairspray brings Rock of Ages to the big screen. The rock musical boasts a strong ensemble cast, including Tom Cruise, Russell Brand, Paul Giamatti, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Dancing with the Stars' Julianne Hough and Grammy-award winning singer Mary J. Blige making her acting debut. Musicals are popular, as shown by the remake of Footloose ($55 million) as well as Mamma Mia! ($150 million) and Hairspray ($90 million). Plus, with no real competition, and this could be a real sleeper hit.
Hoping to school the musical is father-son comedy That's My Boy, starring Adam Sandler and Andy Samberg. The R-rated comedy takes advantage of opening Father's Day Weekend, which should work well in its' favor, but the role of an older father may make Sandler fans scratch their heads, as it is out of his usual comfort zone. But R-rated comedies have a strong tendency to break out, and with three $100 million earners last year (Bridesmaids, Bad Teacher, Horrible Bosses) plus Sandler's popularity and this could also do solid business.
Long-Distance Forecast: Comparing past trajectories, That's My Boy looks like it could edge Rock of Ages for the top spot, with both at least opening in the high-20's millions.
June 22
Another major wildcard arrives in the fourth and last full weekend of June. Pixar launches their first original film in three years with action adventure/fairy tale adaptation Brave. The film is highly anticipated within a select fanbase, but this particular one looks very much different from Pixar's other films. For the first time in studio history, a Pixar film has a female lead, which is a huge risk because it may not appeal as much to boys. Perhaps the best comparisons are Disney's last 3D-computer animated film Tangled, which opened to $48 million over the three-day portion of Thanksgiving weekend and DreamWorks' How To Train Your Dragon (which looks oddly similar without the Dragons), which debuted to a somewhat disappointing $44 million, but showed strong legs, on its' way to nearly $220 million stateside. The advantage of opening in the summer will allow it to open slightly higher than those two, but those kinds of numbers would be considered extremely disappointing. But if it can spawn positive word-of-mouth, then it could see strong legs.Counter-programming against Brave is supernatural thriller Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter, which has earned its' own good size of a fanbase as it is based on a best-selling book. The film does have a solid shot at earning a sizable number in the face of the Pixar flick (as Wanted did in the face of WALL-E back four years ago), but considering that audiences will be yanked in different directions by this time with so many strong holdovers, its' chances at being a blockbuster are anything but possible.
Finally, Steve Carell and Keira Knightley star in apocalyptic comedy Seeking A Friend For The End of The World. The R-rated film is hoping to ride the wave of successful similar films, but while both starring actors have been in hugely-successful movies, this idea is somewhat out of the ordinary considering that its' focus is on the supposed upcoming apocalypse. Buzz isn't very relevant so far, though it could strike a modest note with casual moviegoers not interested in seeing the other two options that weekend.
Long-Distance Forecast: Even with it only expected to earn around $50 million for its' debut, Brave is still well-positioned to win the weekend. Vampire Hunter and Seeking a Freind should also have relatively solid debuts in the $20-$25 million range.
June 29
In what is one of the main head-scratchers of the year, G.I. Joe - Retaliation is hoping to do similar business to its' predecessor, The Rise of Cobra, which debuted to $59 million and ended up with just over $150 million three years ago. The action flick has unfortunate timing though, debuting just a few days before The Amazing Spider-Man, which won't give it but just a full weekend to prove it can get strong numbers. Rise of Cobra wasn't well-recieved by either audiences or critics, but the strong starpower of Bruce Willis and Channing Tatum plus the addition of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson does make it look a lot more interesting (Johnson recently helped revive the Journey franchise earlier this year).
The other three releases don't look as promising. Channing Tatum actually stars in two movies that same weekend (and with him in box office hits The Vow and 21 Jump Street, why not?), this time with R-rated comedy Magic Mike. Directed by Steven Soderbergh, who recently saw a misfire with Haywire, and co-starring Alex Pettyfer and Matthew McConaughey, the film will have competition from That's My Boy, but it does sound like that if it can get a major marketing push, the flick could do solid business in the face of G.I. Joe.
Tyler Perry gets back to cross-dressing with Madea's Witness Protection, his seventh film starring his trademark character, though it is the first that is original, not based on a musical. Obviously, Perry has a nice fanbase, and his films are usually nice-sized hits (he did have a small disappointment with Good Deeds earlier this year). The African-American audience will not have had something to see since Think Like A Man, which should allow this to have good numbers.
Finally, drama People Like Us hopes to take in a similar audience to The Help. As the only drama out, it could be an easy sell to audiences not interested in the other three. Even though it doesn't have a strong cast (besides Chris Pine), the lack of real dramas should translate into reasonable grosses.
Long-Distance Prediction: G.I. Joe should easily win the weekend with at least an opening in the high-40's millions. Mike and Madea should be in for debuts in the high-20's millions, while People Like Us will likely debut in the lower section of the Top 10 with around $10 million.
