Last May was a record-breaker at $1.037 billion, up 15% from last year and up 3% from 2010....
Here are some early forecasts week-by-week based on tracking:
May 4
Yes! It is finally time to assemble! The highly-anticipated ensemble superhero caper The Avengers arrives in theaters. Bringing together Iron Man, Thor, The Hulk, and Captain America has built up an intense fan frenzy, though not quite as obvious as The Hunger Games. But all five Marvel movies based on these characters have been blockbusters, with the least-grossing one being The Incredible Hulk with $155 million domestic and the largest-grossing being Iron Man 2 with $328 million domestic coming off a $128 million opening weekend. Tracking has surged over the last several weeks, pre-sales have sold out early, and trajectories show it ahead of The Dark Knight in how well tracking has been. One thing's for sure though, fans will be crowding theaters on the first Friday in May to see it.Long-Distance Prediction: I'm not guessing an official number at this moment, but Avengers does have a shot at taking the opening weekend record from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II. I think it could perhaps open to about the same as The Hunger Games, if its' tracking isn't heavily inflated by the films' fanbase.
May 11
Hoping to at least counter-program The Avengers is Johnny Depp and Tim Burton working together for the second time (first time was Alice in Wonderland) in vampire comedy Dark Shadows. Buzz has been building over the last couple of months, and considering how popular both Burton and Depp are (Alice opened to $116 million), this could be a big surprise. But the film is very dark in nature, and the PG-13 rating will likely scare off a lot of tweens that usually see any of Burton's films (this is his first PG-13 film). Plus, opening in the wake of the superhero juggernaut will limit business as well. (though Captain America wasn't affected by Harry Potter).
Long-Distance Prediction: Avengers will continue to remain on top with at least $50 million for its' second weekend, while Shadows, based on tracking may have to make do with a mid-30's millions opening.
May 18
The question mark of the month arrives on the usual blockbuster weekend of May. Twisted up adaptation of a board game and Transformers-wanna-be Battleship sails into theaters. The naval war action flick stars Taylor Kitsch, Liam Neeson, and Rihanna in her film debut, and it boasts some pretty impressive special effects. Distributor Universal Pictures has taken the liberty to open the film overseas five weeks early, where it has already earned nearly $130 million in foreign territories. Will it find similar results in America? IDK. There has been some negative reception coming from early screenings, and while tracking is picking up speed, it just doesn't seem like its' going to set the box office on fire.
Finally, romantic comedy What To Expect When You're Expecting is hoping to take in the female audience. Starring Jennifer Lopez and Cameron Diaz, it is another book adaptation that could be an easy sell for its' target audience, even though both Lopez and Diaz have peaked in terms of bankability. While Bridesmaids-like numbers are likely to be out of reach, it should benefit from being the only female-centric movie of the month.Long-Distance Prediction: With Avengers likely to be in the 20's millions territory by this time, Battleship should easily win, though right now, it looks like it may have to settle for an opening in the mid-40's millions. Dictator should score an opening near $30 million, while Expecting is shooting for a debut in the high-teens millions.
May 25
Memorial Day Weekend this year features the return of the alien-exterminating duo made up of Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones. Men in Black III arrives 10 years after the second one. The first two MIB films were hits, though its' hard to imagine a long-dormant franchise being successfully revived, especially with buzz not being very relevant so far. Still though, the first two films and Smith both have a huge fanbase, and with it opening on an extended weekend (where films tend to have huge debuts), its' also hard to imagine this being a disaster.Opening against it is horror flick Chernobyl Diaries. Distributor Warner Bros. is hoping that the extended weekend will serve it well. With no competition (also the fact that it is the first horror film in over a month) plus the fact that an extended weekend is normally boosted by casual moviegoers, and Chernobyl could post exceptional numbers.
Long-Distance Prediction: MIB III should win a relatively weak Memorial Day holiday weekend, with predictions being all over the board so far, but anything below $50 million would be considered disappointing, so I think that a four-day opening closer to $60 million might seem about right. Chernobyl will likely take third or fourth place with a low to-mid teens millions four-day opening.
Check back tomorrow for a preview of June....
