Sunday, April 22, 2012

Weekend Box Office Report: "Think Like A Man" Shoves "Hunger Games" Aside, "Lucky One" and "Chimpanzee" Also Overperform...

Overall box office was down slightly from last year as we had another weekend of overperformers...

In a huge surprise in what's become the battle of the trifecta of book adaptations, Think Like A Man won and actually became the latest hit with audiences.  From just around 2,600 screens at 2,015 theaters, the Steve Harvey adaptation earned $33.6 million, averaging a sensational $16,693 per venue and doubling analysts expectations.  Distributor Screen Gems, who is having a great 2012 so far, had their second-biggest opening ever (behind earlier this years' The Vow) and their third #1 opener this year so far (after Vow and Underworld: Awakening).  It also gave owner studio Sony Pictures Entertainment their fourth #1 opener for 2012 (after the previous two and 21 Jump Street), more than any other studio, and the film also opened higher than many of Tyler Perry's similar-themed films.  Critical reception was mixed to negative, but audiences loved what they saw, giving it a glowing "A" CinemaScore.  But the big question moving forward is that will it see strong legs in the weeks ahead, or will it be front-loaded like a Tyler Perry film?  Nevertheless, SG has another big hit on their hands, who produced the film for just $13 million.


But other films succeeded too, this weekend.  Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Lucky One debuted in second with $22.5 million, for a per-theater average of a fine $7,137 from around 3,700 screens at 3,155 theaters.  That was on par with star Zac Efron's 17 Again, which earned $23.5 million on this same weekend three years ago.  It also was the second-best three-day start for a Sparks film adaptation, behind Dear John.  Overall, the film came in at the high-end of expectations, in which analysts ranged their predictions from as low as the low-teens to as high as just over $20 million.  Critics were negative towards the romantic drama, but audiences were more in favor with a B+ CinemaScore.  The film will have competition next weekend with Jason Segel's The Five-Year Engagement, but with distributor Warner Bros. spending just $25 million on the project, it should still turn a nice profit and help keep Efron in theaters for at least a few more years.






After four consecutive weekends on top, The Hunger Games finally retreats to third place, but miraculously, it had its' best hold yet.  The sci-fi book adaptation eased just 31% in its' fifth weekend to $14.7 million, for a $357.1 million gross in one month of release, and climbing to 19th place on the all-time chart domestically.  If it can post another strong hold next weekend, then the film will still have an outside shot at closing above $400 million stateside, along with what could possibly be close to $700 million worldwide.


The other new release also impressed.  Disneynature's fourth release, Chimpanzee, debuted in the fourth spot with a strong $10.7 million, for a per-theater average of a good $6,829 from 1,563 theaters.  That marked the highest-opening ever for a nature documentary (besting the inaugural Disneynature release, Earth, which opened to $8.8 million), and reversed Disney's nature doc division's downward trend.  Over the last four years, Disney has taken advantage of Earth Day (which is today) by releasing these films, and with this film opening prior to the holiday (while the other three debuted on Earth Day), it makes sense why this film had a solid weekend gross.  However, despite positive reception from critics and audiences ("A" CinemaScore), once the holiday passes, it will likely be front-loaded the rest of the way.  Comparing recent trajectories, Chimpanzee will probably fall short of Earth's $33 million final gross, but its' still going to be enough for Disney to continue releasing these films for years to come.




With Chimpanzee taking the family audience, The Three Stooges fell 43% to fifth place to $9.8 million, for a decent $29.9 million pick-up in 10 days.  The Farrelly Brothers adaptation probably will probably make a final bow at around $45 million.  Horror flick The Cabin in the Woods followed with a 46% drop to $8 million, for a $27.2 milion pick-up in the same amount of time.  That was a much lighter second weekend drop than what typical horror films usually do, and it should reach $40 million before it scares its' last victims.


American Reunion is fading fast, dropping 48% to seventh place in its' third weekend, grossing $5.5 million for a $48.5 million gross in 17 days.  While it will close above its' $50 million budget stateside, its' still not enough to breathe life back into a long-dormant franchise.  But it was Titanic's 3D re-release that took the hardest hit this weekend, plunging 58% to $5 million and eighth place for a $52.8 million gross in the same amount of time.  Look for the infamous ship to sink below the surface (again) at around $60 million.  21 Jump Street spends a sixth weekend in the Top 10, holding the best out of the entire field once again with a 28% drop to $4.75 million, for a strong $127.2 million gross in 38 days.  Mirror Mirror rounds out the field with a 36% ease to $4.4 million, for a $55.5 million gross in 24 days.

Overall box office was down just 1% from last year when Rio held onto the top spot for a second-straight weekend, leading last years' Easter frame with a 33% ease to $26.3 million.  Tyler Perry's comedy Madea's Big Happy Family debuted in second with an OK $25.1 million, on its' way to just north of $50 million stateside.  Book adaptation Water for Elephants debuted in third with a decent $16.8 million, but would see strong legs in the weeks ahead, finishing with nearly $60 million stateside and nearly $120 million worldwide.  As it was Easter weekend, Hop rebounded with a 14% increase to $12.2 million despite sliding to fourth place, while Scream 4 rounded out the Top 5 with a 62% plunge to $7 million.  The other new release debuted in sixth place, Disneynature's third documentary African Cats, which earned $6 million on its' debut, but crashed to just $15 million domestic.

Here is the final Top 10:


#      Movie                                                                 Final Gross          Projected Estimates          My Predictions

1    Think Like A Man                        $33,603,303       $33,000,000        $19,000,000
2    The Lucky One                             $22,518,358       $22,800,000        $23,000,000
3    The Hunger Games                       $14,666,007       $14,500,000        $12,000,000
4    Chimpanzee                                  $10,673,748       $10,200,000          $6,500,000
5    The Three Stooges                         $9,764,214         $9,200,000         $11,000,000
6    The Cabin in the Woods                $8,016,075         $7,750,000           $6,000,000
7    American Reunion                         $5,474,565         $5,200,000           $5,500,000
8    Titanic (3D)                                    $5,032,557        $5,000,000            $7,000,000
9    21 Jump Street                                $4,750,986        $4,600,000            $4,000,000
10  Mirror Mirror                                  $4,408,179        $4,114,000            $4,500,000