Sunday, March 18, 2012

Weekend Box Office Report: "Jump Street" Shoots Down Top Spot...

While it was another good weekend based on recent comparisons, the disadvantages of only one new wide release and softer Saturday business (due to NCAA Tournament and St. Patrick's Day) made this weekend the first of 2012 to be down from last year...

Despite some negatives, the lone new release this weekend did have a strong start.  Action comedy/TV series adaptation 21 Jump Street topped the box office with $36.3 million, for a per-theater average of a robust $11,632 from around 4,300 screens at 3,121 theaters.  It claimed the record for the largest-grossing opening for a non-sequel R-rated comedy outside of summer, and continued a strong track record for star Channing Tatum (since The Vow opened to $41 million).  Produced for $42 million, the film came in above distributor Columbia Pictures expectations, who had projected an opening in the high-20's to around $30 million.  The film recieved largely positive critical reception (87% on Rotten Tomatoes), but mixed reception from audiences ("B" CinemaScore).  With the highly-anticipated The Hunger Games arriving next Friday, the film will have to be on guard to make sure it reaches the $100 million mark.




After two weekends on top, Dr. Suess' The Lorax slid to second place, and once again, held decently with a 41% ease to $22.8 million, for a solid $158.4 million gross in 17 days.  Still averaging above $6,000 per theater, the latest animated megahit should have no problem crossing the $200 million barrier, and could even finish above How To Train Your Dragon's $217.6 million gross if it holds well against The Hunger Games next weekend and gets an Easter boost.

The news wasn't anywhere near as good for John Carter.  Disney's expensive sci-fi flick fell 55% in its' second weekend to $13.6 million, for a dismal $53.2 million in 10 days.  While the hold was a little stronger than recent sci-fi films, its' still not finding its' footing.  Look for a finish in the $80 million range domestically, but it will be saved overseas as it has already picked up over $125 million internationally.

With Jump Street affecting older teenagers, Project X cascaded 64% to $4 million despite being in a distant fourth place.  The found-footage party flick has earned a fine $48.2 million in 17 days.  Act of Valor followed closely with a 47% drop to an estimated $3.7 million, for a solid $62.5 million in 24 days.  Surprisingly, Eddie Murphy's comedy A Thousand Words kept the sixth spot, and held well with a 41% ease to $3.6 million, but has picked up a paltry $12 million in 10 days and will likely close between $15 and $20 million.
Keeping the seventh spot in its' sixth weekend is Safe House, which eased 43% to $2.7 million.  The Denzel Washington hit has earned $120.2 million in 38 days.  With kids out on Spring Break, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island jumped up two spots, and held well with a 34% ease to $2.4 million, for a $95 million gross in the same amount of time.  The adventure sequel is now guaranteed to finish above $100 million domestic and has passed the $300 million mark worldwide.

Despite being in just 382 theaters, Will Ferrell's limited release Casa De Mi Padre slotted in ninth place for the weekend with $2.3 million, for a per-theater average of a good $5,988.  That was much higher than what analysts were expecting, and the budget was just $6 million by distributor Lionsgate.

This Means War rounded out the Top 10, easing 43% to $2.1 million, for a $50.5 million gross in one month of release.

Overall box office was down 4% from the same time last year when action thriller Limitless topped the box office with $18.9 million.  The Bradley Cooper flick would see good legs, finishing with close to $80 million.  Rango held onto the second spot with a 33% ease to $15.1 million, while Battle: Los Angeles plunged 59% to third place with $14.5 million.  Matthew McCaughnahey drama The Lincoln Lawyer debuted in fourth with a respectable $13.2 million, and would also see good legs, finishing with $55 million.  Sci-fi comedy Paul rounded out the Top 5 with a disappointing $13 million start, on its' way to to just north of $35 million domestic.

Here is the final Top 10:

#      Movie                                                                         Actual Numbers        Studio Estimates        My Predictions

1      21 Jump Street                                                         $36,302,612          $35,000,000          $30,000,000
2      Dr. Suess' The Lorax                                              $22,764,760          $22,800,000          $26,000,000
3      John Carter                                                              $13,569,795          $13,515,000          $16,000,000
4      Project X                                                                    $4,044,159            $4,000,000            $5,500,000
5      Act of Valor                                                               $3,733,697            $3,678,000            $4,000,000
6      A Thousand Words                                                 $3,632,932            $3,750,000            $3,500,000
7      Safe House                                                                 $2,716,795            $2,800,000            $3,000,000
8      Journey 2: The Mysterious Island                         $2,388,320            $2,460,000            $2,500,000
9      Casa De  Mi Padre                                                    $2,287,239             $2,200,000                 ----
10    This Means War                                                       $2,141,760             $2,125,000                 ----