Sunday, February 12, 2012

Weekend Box Office Report: "The Vow", "Safe House", "Journey 2", and "Star Wars 3D" All Overperform in Record-Breaking Weekend...

There was something for everyone this weekend, as four new releases opened to more than $20 million apiece and led this frame to the second highest-grossing February weekend of all-time...



Rallying the top spot, true story adaptation The Vow was able to score with date night audiences, earning a strong $41.2 million, for a per-theater average of a fantastic $13,929 from around 3,700 screens at 2,958 theaters.  That easily passed The Devil Inside for the year's biggest opening weekend by far, (though the per-theater average was second to it for 2012 so far) and was way ahead of studio and analysts' expectations, who had projected around $30 million for its' debut.  It also marked the biggest opening yet for second-class studio Screen Gems, as it beat one of this films' stars Channing Tatum's Dear John ($30 million opening).  With him and Rachel McAdams being solid box office draws, plus the fact that the film opened just before Valentine's Day, the film was a must-see for date audiences and especially young women.  On a slightly negative note, critics didn't endorse it (28% on Rotten Tomatoes), though audiences were mostly mixed ("B" CinemaScore).  Even though there will be competition next weekend from This Means War, the film was produced for just $30 million, which indicates that the film will be a huge hit.



But it wasn't just date night audiences that came out in huge numbers, action fans, who have had plenty of films to see already this year, still came out for Safe House.  The Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds pic debuted with a huge $40.2 million, for a per-theater average of an excellent $12,880 from around 4,000 screens at 3,119 theaters, and was much higher than what analysts' were expecting, who had projected a low-20's millions start.  That ranked as the second biggest-opening of Washington's career, behind American Gangster ($43.6 million start) and was a bit of a revival for Reynolds, who saw two disappointments last summer wtih Green Lantern (just over $115 million) and The Change-Up ($42 million).  The main reason why House succeeded was because Washington is one of the biggest stars in Hollywood and his broad fanbase will go see anything he does, plus the fact that the film had an ambitious marketing campaign (including a Super Bowl commercial).  Critics were mainly mixed on the latest action flick (53% on Rotten Tomatoes), but audiences came out with favorable word-of-mouth ("A-" CinemaScore grade).  Produced for $85 million by distributor Universal Pictures, its' very likely that this film will become another big hit for the distributor.



Originally projected to be the odd one out this weekend, family 3D-adventure Journey 2: The Mysterious Island did just about the impossible.  The sequel to 2008's Journey to the Center of the Earth debuted in third place with a shockingly strong $27.3 million, for a per-theater average of a solid $7,878 (with 74% of business coming from 3D screens) from around 5,600 screens at the widest release of the frame, 3,470 theaters.  That actually was an improvement over the original's $21 million start (though it may be about even with it in terms of attendance), which is an extreme rarity for a family sequel (the only other exceptions have been the second films of the Diary of a Wimpy Kid and Alvin & The Chipmunks films), and doubled industry expectations, who had originally forecasted a low-to-mid teens millions debut.  Despite more competition in terms of action-adventure and family films, Journey 2 was able to capitalize on its' promotional campaign, and further solidified Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's position as a good draw at the box office (he helped Fast Five to franchise-high levels last year, and has become a mainstay in family films with The Game Plan, Race to Witch Mountain and Tooth Fairy).  Produced for $79 million by distributor Warner Bros./New Line, the film earned good word-of-mouth (indicated by its' "A-" CinemaScore and its' huge 94% bump from $6.6 million on Friday to $12.4 million on Saturday) and is going to do big business over the four-day President's Day frame next weekend.  Critical reception was generally negative (42% on Rotten Tomatoes), but its' already become an overseas hit with already over $100 million worldwide (including its' domestic opening).



While it had to end up in fourth place, Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (3D) was still able to prove that the beloved franchise is still popular.  The re-release earned $22.5 million, for a per-theater average of a great $8,463 from around 3,300 screens at just 2,655 theaters.  That was on the high-end of analysts' and distributor 20th Century Fox's expectations, who had projected an opening of around $20 million.  Being just the third re-issue in the third dimesnion, the opening was in between Beauty and the Beast's ($17.8 million) and The Lion King's ($30.2 million) 3D re-issue opening weekends, though it was a bit front-loaded as it didn't recieve a Saturday bump.  That might raise a little concern on how well it will do in the long-run, but as it has appeal to families, it could still do good business over the extended frame next weekend.  The films' lifetime gross has climbed to $435 million domestic, moving into the Top 5 highest-grossing films of all-time domestically, and as the original run had nearly $950 million worldwide, expect the film to cross the $1 billion mark (a franchise first) by next weekend.  No budgeting information is available, but expect a release date announcement of Attack of the Clones (3D) soon.

After debuting in the top spot last weekend, sci-fi found footage flick Chronicle fell to fifth place, but held remarkably well despite all the competition with a 45% ease to $12.1 million, for a $40 million gross in 10 days.  Horror flick The Woman in Black dropped from second to sixth, but held very well for a horror flick with a 52% slide to $10.1 million, for a $35.3 million tally in the same amount of time.  Liam Neeson's The Grey followed in sixth with a 46% ease to $5 million, for a $42.8 million gross in 17 days.  The critically-adored action flick has failed to find its' footing due to more competition and will likely close just north of $50 million.

With much more competition for families, whale tale Big Miracle failed to show any signs of sustainment, dropping 49% to eighth place and $3.9 million, for a forgettable $13.3 million gross in 10 days, and is by far the least-grossing wide release of the year through the same point.  The true story-based adventure will likely end its' run at around $20 million.  The only Best Picture nominee remaining in the Top 10, The Descendants continued to keep going with once again, the best hold out of the list, at a 24% ease to $3.4 million, for a $70.7 million gross in 13 weeks.  Rounding out the Top 10 is horror fourquel Underworld: Awakening, which continues to fade away fast with a 55% ease to $2.5 million, for a $58.9 million tally in 24 days.

Overall box office was up a staggering 28% from last year when Adam Sandler's Just Go with It narrowly defeated Justin Bieber: Never Say Never (3D) for the top spot with $30.5 million, on its' way to over $100 million domestically and $200 million worldwide.  The teenage heartthrob's 3D concert earned $29.5 million, and would go on to gross nearly $75 million stateside.  Not far behind in third, the animated flick Gnomeo and Juliet debuted with double of what was expected, earning $25.4 million.  The cheap film would narrowly miss the $100 million mark stateside and would gross about $200 million worldwide.  The final new release, Channing Tatum's midieval action flick The Eagle stumbled into fourth place with $8.7 million, and crashed to a finish just short of $20 million stateside.  The previous week's winner The Roommate rounded out the Top 5 with a decent hold, down 46% to $8.1 million.

Here is the final Top 10:

#      Movies                                                                                                Final Numbers        Projected Estimates        My Predictions

1     The Vow                                                                                          $41,202,458            $41,700,000           $32,000,000
2     Safe House                                                                                      $40,172,720            $39,300,000          $22,000,000
 3     Journey 2: The Mysterious Island                                             $27,335,363            $27,550,000          $15,000,000
4     Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (3D)                  $22,469,932             $23,000,000          $24,000,000
5     Chronicle                                                                                        $12,092,589             $12,300,000          $11,000,000
6     The Woman in Black                                                                    $10,102,658             $10,400,000            $9,000,000
7     The Grey                                                                                           $5,045,620              $5,100,000            $4,500,000
8     Big Miracle                                                                                       $3,946,050              $3,900,000            $5,000,000
9     The Descendants                                                                            $3,441,676              $3,500,000            $3,500,000
10   Underworld: Awakening                                                                $2,480,156              $2,500,000                 ----