Here is the projected Top 10 for the three-day and four-day periods, in what could be a close race for first and second place:
#1: Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance
Nicolas Cage is back as the famous underworld superhero (though he claims its' not a sequel). The original Ghost Rider had a $52 million four-day start back in President's Day Weekend 2008, which at the time was the biggest President's Day debut of all time. Unfortunately, the first film was panned by critics and also wasn't liked by audiences, which doesn't bode well for this sequel. Add in the facts that despite good anticipation, early reception has called this installment worse than the first one, and Nicolas Cage has been in a deep box office slump since after the National Treasure movies. But, die-hard superhero movie fans who haven't had any new flicks to entertain them since last summer, will mostlikely show up for this. But there's too many negative factors that its' going to be very hard for it to even be successful.
3-Day Weekend Prediction: $27 million
4-Day Weekend Prediction: $33 million
Estimated Final Gross: $60-$65 million
#2: Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
Family films are notorious for nearly replicating their previous weekends, ala Gnomeo and Juliet, which earned nearly the same amount over the four-day frame as it did the previous weekend. With positive word-of-mouth ("A-" CinemaScore), it should more than definitely hold well this frame, as it is performing way above expectations.
3-Day Weekend Prediction: $20 million (-27%)
4-Day Weekend Prediction: $26.5 million
Estimated 10-Day Total: $61.5 million
#3: The Vow
It had a record-breaking Valentine's Day ($11.6 million), but with more competition and just a "B" CinemaScore, its' hold isn't going to be impressive...
3-Day Weekend Prediction: $19 million (-54%)
4-Day Weekend Prediction: $24 million
Estimated 10-Day Total: $88 million
#4: Safe House
Denzel Washington's action thriller opened to strong numbers, but competition from Ghost Rider won't help it to get a good hold this weekend, despite its' good word-of-mouth...
3-Day Weekend Prediction: $18 million (-55%)
4-Day Weekend Prediction: $22.5 million
Estimated 10-Day Total: $79 million
#5: This Means War
Romance, action, and comedy come together in this spy vs. spy. Promotion has been on the high end over the last several months, and anticipation is relatively modest. Star Reese Witherspoon (who looks an awful lot like Carrie Underwood in the poster) is a draw, but hasn't had a big hit since Four Christmases in 2008. With The Vow serving as competition, its' going to be hard for it to break out, but it should be able to take in audiences that are in the mood for action rather than just plain romance.
3-Day Weekend Prediction: $17 million
4-Day Weekend Prediction: $21 million
Estimated Final Gross: $50-$55 million
#6: Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (3D)
Based on recent 3D re-issue trajectories, Lion King held well over the course of its' run, while Beauty and the Beast was a lot more front-loaded. Whether this will be front-loaded or not isn't exactly certain, though as its' target audience is families, it should be able to see a fairly decent hold for the four-day frame.
3-Day Weekend Prediction: $14 million (-37%)
4-Day Weekend Prediction: $18.5 million
Estimated 10-Day Total: $45 million
#7: The Secret World of Arrietty
From the creative minds at Studio Ghibli (who were behind Spirited Away and Ponyo), Disney is hoping to bring in parents with young children for this animated adaptation of the award-winning novel The Borrowers. A 4-day weekend is a great time to launch a family movie, since kids will have Monday off, which will help its' gross go even higher. With the best critical reception out of the new releases (92% on Rotten Tomatoes), plus the fact that Disney has pulled out all the stops to make sure awareness is high, this could be a mini surprise. Yes, there is competition from Journey 2 and Star Wars, but Arrietty is aiming for the 8 and under crowd while the other two are aiming for the 8 and older crowd. I think the best comparison for this would be last year's Winnie The Pooh, which had good promotion, but opened to just short of $8 million on its' debut. Another comparison would be Studio Ghibli's last film, Ponyo, which earned just $15 million domestically, but that was off a limited promotional campaign. A release in just 1,300+ theaters won't help either, but it doesn't need a strong run stateside to become a success, as it has already grossed over $175 million overseas ahead of its' U.S. release. I think numbers close to Pooh for the four-day frame are a decent target.
3-Day Weekend Prediction: $5 million
4-Day Weekend Prediction: $7.5 million
Estimated Final Gross: $20 million
#8: Chronicle
It held well last weekend, but more competition for the teenage audience will make this drop hard...
3-Day Weekend Prediction: $5 million (-59%)
4-Day Weekend Prediction: $7 million
Estimated 17-Day Gross: $53 million
#9: The Woman in Black
There's no competition for the horror genre, but they usually fall out by this time around, as the female audience (its' primary audience), will be yanked in different directions...
3-Day Weekend Prediction: $4.5 million (-56%)
4-Day Weekend Prediction: $6.5 million
Estimated 17-Day Gross: $46 million
#10: Big Miracle
The four-day extended frame will give this one more weekend in the Top 10, as it still is a viable choice for family audiences looking for a true-story adventure...but it still won't improve its' status as a disappointment...
3-Day Weekend Prediction: $2.5 million (-36%)
4-Day Weekend Prediction: $3.5 million
Estimated 17-Day Gross: $18 million
