Box office is set to surge from last year, and this looks like it will be one for the record books as it will be the first non-holiday weekend in history to have four films open to $20 million or more.
As expected, The Vow is on top, but it earned a whole lot more than even the highest of tracking suggested. The romance drama earned a huge estimated $15.4 million on Friday, which is ahead of even the highest of expectations and is the second-biggest Friday this year behind The Devil Inside. That's the biggest Friday number for a romantic flick since 2010's Valentine's Day, and was ahead of comparable films Dear John and The Notebook through the same day. Audiences however were mixed as they gave the "inspired by true events" tale a "B" CinemaScore. However, with Valentine's Day coming up, it should be able to do strong business over the weekend with $40 million by the end of Sunday, perhaps more if it gets a Saturday bump, and easily the biggest opening of the year by far.
In second, Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds proved to be a hit crime team with Safe House. Despite its' striking similarity to Contraband, the film earned a surprisingly strong estimated $13.8 million on Friday, riding way ahead of expectations. That was the second-biggest opening in Washington's career, behind American Gangster ($15.5 million). With positive reception from audiences ("A-" CinemaScore), the film is also heading for strong results, at around $38.5 million, and could even take the top spot from Vow dependent on how good Saturday's grosses are.
Despite being the least-loved entry in the franchise, fans still warmly welcomed the return to theaters of George Lucas' Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (3D), which earned third place with an estimated $8.6 million. That was just short of The Lion King's 3D re-release ($8.9 million), but way ahead of Beauty and the Beast's ($5.7 million). With its' primary audience being families, this should easily get a bump on Saturday, and go on to gross a solid $27 million for the weekend, perhaps more if the bump is higher than expected.
Expected to be the odd one out this weekend, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island was unfazed by the amount of competition, and despite being in fourth place, earned an estimated $6.6 million on Friday, again way ahead of analysts' expectations (including myself). The family sequel was about even with Journey To The Center of the Earth ($6.7 million), and with a bigger Saturday bump (as it is the only new family movie out and the original opened during the summer when bumps aren't as large), it probably will open ahead of the originals' $21 million start. By comparison, last year's Gnomeo and Juliet opened to that same number and went on to gross $25.4 million for the weekend. Audiences were positive towards the sequel ("A-" CinemaScore), so it should at least come close to that same number with around $24 million for the weekend.
Rounding out the Top 5 is Chronicle which dropped an expected 59% from its' debut last week to an estimated $3.5 million, and should be able to round up about $11 million for its' second weekend.
Official weekend estimates to be posted tomorrow afternoon...
