The second and last month of the winter box office season is typically the slowest as there is hardly any excitement. Last year, Adam Sandler's Just Go With It ($79.5 million) and the animated film Gnomeo and Juliet ($74.9 million) led the month to a total of $659.5 million, down 13% from 2010 and down 16% from 2009. With January 2012 doing far better business than expected and the domestic box office running 9% ahead of last year so far, one would expect February to pull similar numbers. But, based on tracking, chances are much less for this month to fare as well as it doesn't have added support from Christmas holdovers...
Here is an analysis of the month based on week-to-week:
February 3
The first weekend of the month doesn't look like it has much potential, especially with all films openings being affected by it being Super Bowl Weekend.
Horror flick The Woman in Black is hoping to ride the success of last month's The Devil Inside. While buzz has been going up the last few weeks, its' not quite as strong and ambitious as Devil's was. Being Harry Potter's Daniel Radcliffe's first starring role outside that film series, its' going to be hard to see if he can do well on his own. Horror flicks have been hit or miss since last summer, and while the early part of the year has resulted in primarily success, its' still not guaranteed if this can be the next major hit, and it hasn't gotten a big promotional push from distributor CBS Films.
Also recieving steady buzz over the last month, sci-fi action flick Chronicle is hoping to take away Woman's audience. But its' hard to imagine this seeing strong numbers, since sci-fi flicks in recent memory have missed expectations (Battle: Los Angeles and the bomb Skyline are notable examples). And with competition with other action flicks, its' going to be hard for this to score successful results.
The other new release is aiming for a smaller audience. True-story based Big Miracle is hoping to take in the audiences that saw last year's true stories Moneyball and Dolphin Tale earn nearly $75 million apiece. Unfortunately, while it has seen good promotion, and it has good starpower with Drew Barrymore and John Krasinski, it doesn't seem to have high anticipation and its' save whales trapped under arctic ice doesn't sound as appealing as a dolphin getting a new tail or a losing baseball team resurging. But, with a PG rating, it could still become a minor hit if it can connect with family audiences.
Long-Distance Prediction: It looks like a close race between Woman and Chronicle each grossing in the low-to-mid teens millions. Miracle will likely settle for fourth or fifth place with a lower gross.
February 10
The second weekend of February is easily the first real competitive weekend of the year, with all four releases having a decent shot at the top spot.
Romantic drama The Vow is hoping to capitalize on date night audiences heading towards Valentine's Day. Based on true events, the film has starpower with Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams playing a couple in which the girl suffers a traumatic accident. Based on early buzz, that kind of story does actually look like something that audiences can connect with, which could result in strong numbers both in its' opening and in the long run.
Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds team up for action thriller Safe House, which sort-of looks a lot like last month's Contraband. Fortunately though, Washington is a bankable star and both him and Reynolds have their own fanbases that could come out in strong numbers. Buzz has been going up for this over the past month, but the R rating will probably not make it open as high as Washington's last action pic Unstoppable.
3D conversions are big this year, and Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace is hoping to ride the wave of classic re-issues that has proven to be successful with The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast (which both performed ahead of expectations). Though it would be unfair to compare two classic animated films to the first chronological installment of a famous movie series. On a positive side, it has been recieving some strong anticipation, but on a negative side, this film is largely considered by fans one of the worst of the six-installment long film series. But, George Lucas has many die-hard fans, and with a PG rating, parents who saw this when they were younger will find this as a good introduction for their kids to the franchise. Add in the surcharges, and this conversion should open higher than what Beauty and the Beast's did, but I don't think it will be able to catch Lion King's.
Finally, family sequel Journey 2: The Mysterious Island is serving as counter-programming for Star Wars. Following three years after Journey to the Center of the Earth was a leggy hit at $100 million domestic (after a $21 million opening) and $230 million worldwide. Early international numbers have already given it the same potential, but, despite good promotion, this is recieving the least anticipation among all the new releases that weekend. On a more positive side, families that already own Star Wars on DVD, Blu-ray, or VHS could find this as a viable option, and it will certainly benefit from 3D surcharges. But the added competition will make it a challenge for this sequel to come close to the original Journey's opening and final gross.
Long-Distance Prediction: Right now, its' anyone's guess, but mainly between Vow, Safe House, and Star Wars with grosses of $20 million or higher. Journey 2 does have an outside shot, but will likely settle for fourth or fifth place with a lower gross.
February 17
The 4-day President's Day Weekend is going to be another major weekend of competition.
The first superhero event this year and the most anticipated title of the month, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance acts as a sequel to 2008's Ghost Rider, which enjoyed moderate success at over $120 million domestic and $250 million worldwide. But, it wasn't very well liked by audiences and critics, and early reviews have called this one worse. 3D surcharges will help, but the negative encouragement brought by the first film and the fact that star Nicolas Cage has struggled over the last few years to get a box office hit certainly won't give this as strong of a start as the original.
Action romance comedy This Means War gets a jump on the weekend by opening on Valentine's Day (Tuesday prior to the weekend). The film has seen its' promotion, but besides Reese Witherspoon, there really isn't much starpower. With the early start though, its' easy to see this seeing solid numbers from date audiences over the week and weekend (even though some demand might be relieved by then), but business will be spread out with The Vow, which will make it a much bigger challenge.
Aiming for family audiences, Disney is hoping that their English dub of Studio Ghibli's The Secret World of Arrietty will earn bigger numbers than 2009's Ponyo ($4 million opening, $15 million finish). Opening on a four-day weekend will certainly help it to score perhaps slightly bigger numbers, but it will all depend on how wide of a release Disney will pursue. Ponyo was only in just over 900 theaters, and a similar release count certainly won't help boost business much. Promotion has been high on Disney Channel and showing commercials in front of other movies, but with more competition to compete against, its' hard to imagine this breaking out.
Long-Distance Prediction: Ghost Rider will win the four-day weekend, but numbers could be limited to as low as the high-20's millions to around $30 million. War could get modest numbers in second or third, while Arrietty will likely open below the Top 5.
February 24
The last weekend of February looks quiet, perhaps a little too quiet...
Tyler Perry directs another drama with Good Deeds. While he does star in it, and his name alone will drive his fanbase in, his dramas don't tend to earn as strong numbers as his Madea comedies. But, the emotional story could connect with audiences, so an opening a bit higher than his 2009 drama For Colored Girls ($19.5 million start) could be a reasonable target.
Amanda Seyfried has proven that she can do well with audiences with Dear John, Letters to Juliet, Red Riding Hood and In Time all earning around $40+ million domestically. But, she's taking a bit of a different direction with Gone, in which she doesn't have much additional starpower, considering her previous films have had additional starpower or promotion. And with other action films competing against it, its' currently questionable whether this can live up to her reputation or not.
War drama Act of Valor is hoping to ride the success that Red Tails ($34.5 million in 11 days) has seen so far. Unfortunately, distributor Relativity Media (which has mainly been a bomb factory) hasn't quite given it a promotional push. This is a kind of film that could break out, but with an unknown cast, its' chances are inconsequential.
Finally, Jennifer Aniston and Paul Rudd come together for romance comedy Wanderlust. The starpower alone should at least get it a decent number, but it is questionable whether its' lackluster plot can make it succeed with audiences. Plus, the amount of competition for the date audience is going to spread out business even further. Even with Judd Apatow listed as a producer, it may not be enough.
Long-Distance Prediction: Deeds will likely win with an opening in the low-20's millions, Gone and Wanderlust are in a tight race for second or third place while Valor has yet to really establish itself enough to have a shot at also being in that tight race.
