Here is the projected Top 10:
In a rare occasion, there are two films that I think either one could take the top spot...
#1 or #2: Chronicle
This action pic has been going up steadily in buzz and anticipation over the last month, and while it has an unknown cast, it has great anticipation among young males (with its' theme). Even though the Super Bowl will pose as a threat, its' still going to see good business over Friday and Saturday. Then again, sci-fi action flicks have been hit or miss (as seen by Battle: Los Angeles and the bomb Skyfall). Based on audience anticipation and overall good critical reception, a modest opening should be expected.
Weekend Prediction: $15 million
Estimated Final Gross: $35-$40 million
#1 or #2: The Woman in Black
Daniel Radcliffe's first non-Harry Potter flick, as he tries to be a box office draw on his own. The good news is that buzz has been high for this horror flick, which brings to mind last month's The Devil Inside, though the Twitter and Facebook counts haven't been as strong. Plus the Super Bowl will limit business on Sunday, but horror flicks normally succeed in the early part of the year, especially supernatural horrors, so it should see an above-average opening. Critical reception has been positive so that should help.
Weekend Prediction: $15 million
Estimated Final Gross: $35 million
#3: The Grey
Liam Neeson's thriller will likely not pull a strong hold due to more competition, the big game and mixed audience reception. But, the fact that the other films don't have as wide of an appeal should keep its' drop under 50%...
Weekend Prediction: $11 million (-44%)
Estimated 10-Day Gross: $37.5 million
#4: Big Miracle
The other new release is hoping to take in family audiences. Based on the inspiring true story of three whales trapped beneath the arctic ice and an organization formed to get them back to the ocean, the drama stars one of today's biggest actresses Drew Barrymore along with comedian and actor John Krasinski. Buzz has not been very relevant for this so far, but critics have been giving it good remarks and there really is no competition for families right now (as Beauty and the Beast (3D) will exit the Top 10 this week). The Super Bowl will still affect this, but not as much as the other two, so I am going to go on a limb and say this does better than what analysts are thinking, with perhaps some nice sustainability if it can spawn positive word-of-mouth.
Weekend Prediction: $10 million
Estimated Final Gross: $30 million
#5: One for the Money
Unlike other films being affected by the big game, this one won't be affected as females will be looking for something to see while their husband/son/boyfriend watches the game. Competition from Big Miracle won't help, but, even with mixed audience reception, its' still set for a fine hold in its' second frame..
Weekend Prediction: $6.5 million (-44%)
Estimated 10-Day Total: $20.5 million
#6: Red Tails
Positive word-of-mouth will keep this film going, but added competition won't make its' drop any smaller from last weekend...
Weekend Prediction: $6 million (-42%)
Estimated 17-Day Total: $42 million
#7: Underworld: Awakening
The fourquel did see a nice hold last weekend, but unfortunately, it has competition with The Woman in Black this time, so it will likely see a larger drop than it did last frame...
Weekend Prediction: $5.5 million (-56%)
Estimated 17-Day Total: $54 million
#8: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Best Picture-nominated film made up some ground last weekend, and while the Oscars are still a few weeks away, this drama is still going to see another strong hold.
Weekend Prediciton: $5 million (-29%)
Estimated 17-Day Total: $28.5 million
#9: Man on a Ledge
While it has gotten positive remarks from audiences, the disadvantages including more competition and the Super Bowl won't save it from being January's biggest disappointment...
Weekend Prediction: $4.5 million (-44%)
Estimated 10-Day Total: $15 million
#10: The Descendants
George Clooney's Best Picture-nominated flick should hold good enough to keep it in the Top 10...
Weekend Prediction: $4 million (-38%)
Estimated 84(!)-Day Total: $64 million
Possible change: While there's more competition, there's still a possibility dependent on how hard The Descendants drops that Contraband could take the 10th spot...
