Sunday, October 23, 2011

Weekend Box Office Report: "Paranormal Activity 3" Scares Away Records....

Even though records were broken, box office still stumbled from last year...



The low-budget sensation keeps growing as Paranormal Activity 3 broke records, tracking down $52.6 million, for a per-theater average of a stunning $15,829 from around 4,200 screens at 3,321 theaters.  That claimed the highest-grossing opening ever in the Fall movie season (the previous record-holder was Jack*** 3-D) and easily became the biggest opening yet for a horror flick.  It also eclipsed the entire run of this years' other high-grossing horror flick Insidious in just three days and has grossed eleven times its' $5 million budget already.  It was the biggest opening of the year since Rise of the Planet of the Apes nearly four months ago and turned the tides for the genre after a whole string of movies didn't even reach $25 million in their entire runs.  Distributor Paramount Pictures had originally predicted a mid-30's millions opening, and the expectations of the studio and analysts were blown away.  Being promoted as a prequel, fans of the original film were expecting a much better venture than the second film, which was somewhat disliked by some fans, but the fact that it preceded the first movie made new fans show up, causing a much larger opening.  However, it didn't seem like fans were very impressed with this venture either, as it earned a "C+" CinemaScore grade, though critics were generally positive towards it.  How well will it hold in the weeks ahead?  Right now, its' anyone's guess since there is no more horror competition this year.

After topping for two weeks straight, Real Steel retreated to second place but held very well with just a 34% ease to $10.8 million, for a $66.7 million tally in 17 days.  Look for the boxing robots to finally be K-O'd at around $90 million.  The remake of Footloose followed closely in third and also held well with a 34% drop to $10.4 million, for a $30.4 million tally in 10 days.  It has eclipsed its' $25 million budget in the process.



As for 2011's 3-D rendition of The Three Musketeers, looks like their swords bended as it clocked in $8.7 million and took fourth place for a per-theater average of a dismal $2,875 from around 4,600 screens at 3,017 theaters.  That was on the low end for a 3-D event (which accounted for 54 percent of the gross), and was the least-attended theatrical releasing of the classic story.  Produced for $100 million by distributor Summit Entertainment, this will likely yield disappointing numbers by the time its' done.  Musketeers had promotions that failed to excite audiences, and considering the fact that the 3-D format has been stressed to its' limit this year, the extra charge and the glut of 3-D releases also kept audiences away.  The good news is that it has already earned over $60 million overseas, so it won't be a disaster.

George Clooney's The Ides of March hangs around in the Top 5 for a third straight weekend, easing 32% to $4.9 million for a $29.1 million tally in 17 days.  The political drama is expected to finish its' run at about $40 million.  Dolphin Tale had one more weekend to its' core audience and eased 32% to $4.2 million, for a $64.4 million tally in one month of release, slotting in sixth place.  It will be wiped out by Puss in Boots next weekend and will likely close at $75 million.  Moneyball wasn't far behind with a 27% ease to $4 million, for a $63.6 million pick-up in the same amount of time and will also close at around $75 million.

Johnny English Reborn poster

The other new nationwide release, Johnny English Reborn, slotted in eighth place for the weekend with $3.8 million, for a per-theater average of a poor $2,470 from 1,551 theaters.  That was a little over one third of the original Johnny English, and was probably a tenth of the originals' attendance.  The PG-rated family-adjacent film brings to mind last weekend's The Big Year, which earned a similar number.  This proves that families are getting tired of either boring or spoofed concepts, and Johnny English was further inconsequential from a long lapse of time from the original, which wasn't a success to begin with.  However, like the original and Musketeers, English is a huge blockbuster overseas, as it has crossed the $100 million mark worldwide against a $45 million budget, which was mostly funded by Universal Pictures, who has once again seen a slow year.

After its' average debut last week, the remake of The Thing crashed in the face of Paranormal Activity 3, collapsing 64% and falling from third to ninth place to $3.1 million, for a 10-day total of an anemic $14 million and will finish short of $20 million.  Cancer dramedy 50/50 rounds out the Top 10 in its' fourth weekend with a 33% ease to $2.8 million, for a $28.8 million tally in 24 days.

Meanwhile, faith-based drama The Mighty Macs slotted in 15th place with $963,000, for a per-theater average of a poor $988 from 975 theaters.

In milestone news, action western Cowboys & Aliens became the years' 23rd flick to cross the $100 million barrier this past week.

Overall box office was down 10% from the same time last year when Paranormal Activity 2 topped the box office with a then-horror record $40.7 million.  The low-budget sequel though would crash to a $85 million finish domestically and nearly $180 million worldwide, falling short of its' predecessor on both fields.  Jack*** 3-D crashed 58% to second place after its' then-fall record to $21.3 million for a 10-day total of $86.9 million.  Red held much better in third place with a 31% drop to $15 million, while Matt Damon thriller Hereafter took fourth place with a disappointing $12 million, on its' way to just $32.7 million domestically, but would gross $105 million worldwide.  The Social Network rounded out the Top 5 with a 30% drop to $7.3 million.

Here is the final Top 10 (due to complications on one of my resources, I only have the final numbers through an estimates perspective):

#   Movie                                                                Actual Number (Half of it)        Projected Estimate        My Prediction

1    Paranormal Activity 3                                       $52,600,000                    $54,000,000          $35,900,000
2    Real Steel                                                            $10,900,000                    $11,300,000            $9,500,000
3    Footloose (2011)                                                $10,400,000                    $10,900,000            $8,000,000
4    The Three Musketeers (2011)                            $8,700,000                      $8,800,000         $14,700,000
5    The Ides of March                                               $4,900,000                      $4,900,000            $4,200,000
6    Dolphin Tale                                                         $4,200,000                      $4,200,000            $4,500,000
7    Moneyball                                                             $4,000,000                      $4,100,000            $4,000,000
8    Johnny English Reborn                                       $3,800,000                      $3,800,000            $7,500,000
9    The Thing (2011)                                                   $3,100,000                     $3,100,000            $3,400,000
10   50/50                                                                       $2,800,000                     $2,800,000            $3,000,000