Paranormal Activity 3 is projected to earn an estimated $25 million on Friday, or a bit up from 2's $21 million Friday. Its' a rarity that a threequel improves from its' predecesors, but the main question is that how well will it hold over the weekend? It probably will be front-loaded, but as long as the Friday-Saturday drop is below 40%, it will stay ahead of its' predecessor. 2 ended up with a $40.7 million weekend, or a weekend multiplier of 1.9, and if 3 follows the same trajectory, it would see a weekend of $47.5 million. Easily the years' best opening since Rise of the Planet of the Apes nearly four months ago.
But, alas, there's not much to say about the other new releases, who slotted in fourth and eighth places on Friday. The Three Musketeers struggled with just an estimated $2.8 million on Friday, and based on recent trajectories, it probably will at least get to $8.5 million for the weekend. Johnny English Reborn is a huge bomb, tallying just over $1 million in estimates and even though it will get a bump on Saturday, I still can't see it reaching $4 million for the weekend. Good news, these films are still performing exceptionally overseas, so they will still be successes after all.
The remake of Footloose and Real Steel once again will be in a heated battle, this time for second place. Easing 33%, the dance remake earned an estimated $3.6 million and could reach $11 million for the weekend. The boxing robots eased 30% to an estimated $3.2 million and will probably jump ahead of Footloose once again, as it will get the family bump and might reach $12 million for the weekend.
The Ides of March and Dolphin Tale will be fighting for the fifth spot over the weekend, as they both held well with 32% and 18% drops to $1.5 million and $1.4 million, and they both look to reach $5 million for the weekend, but due to the family bump, I'm expecting Dolphin to come out ahead. Moneyball wasn't far behind with a 20% drop to $1.4 million and a $4.5 million weekend, benefiting from promotion on the World Series telecast this past week.
Here is the projected Top 10 (updated):
#1: Paranormal Activity 3 ($47.5 million)
#2: Real Steel ($11.8 million, -28%)
#3: Footloose ($10.7 million, -32%)
#4: The Three Musketeers ($8.3 million)
#5: Dolphin Tale ($5.1 million, -18%)
#6: The Ides of March ($4.8 million, -31%)
#7: Moneyball ($4.4 million, -20%)
#8: Johnny English Reborn ($3.7 million)
#9: The Thing ($2.9 million, -66%)
#10: 50/50 ($2.8 million, -35%)
