The film with the biggest potential this weekend is DreamWorks Animation's Puss in Boots. Starring the voices of Antonio Banderas and Salma Hayek (reuniting them from Desperado), this film has seen intense promotion over the last two months. Buzz has been high and critical reception has been positive, and being the first CGI-animated film in four months will certainly be enough to bring in large audiences. But the main question is, will it be the next animated blockbuster? I don't know, DreamWorks has been in a bit of a slump lately as How To Train Your Dragon, MegaMind, and most recently Kung Fu Panda 2 all failed to reach $50 million on their opening weekend, while Monsters VS. Aliens and the Shrek movies reached $60 million or more on their debuts. The fact that the flick is a spin-off from the Shrek movies and that it will be boosted by 3-D and IMAX 3-D grosses should help it at least perform in between all those titles. Debuting in around 7,100 screens at 3,952 theaters, look for Puss in Boots to earn $48 million on its' debut, and will probably gross over $150 million by the time it leaves theaters.
Also opening is futuristic romance drama In Time. Starring Justin Timberlake and Amanda Seyfried, both are bankable stars as their tracking history has seen openings between $15-$20 million (Friends with Benefits, Red Riding Hood and Letters to Juliet being notable examples). However, the time travel genre is relatively unpopular and critical reception has been mediocre by far, but, it should still see an opening in double digits because of the actors' fanbases and overall modest audience buzz. Starting off in around 4,000 screens at over 3,000 theaters, In Time might get around $13 million for its' debut and will probably be shut off at $40 million when it is all said and done.
The other new release is Johnny Depp's The Rum Diary. It releases from FilmDistrict, who has had an outstanding debut year with Insidious, Soul Surfer, and Drive all succeeding at the box office. Add in the fact that Depp is extremely popular, this could be the big surprise this weekend. Buzz has been high so far and critical reception has been modest, an opening close to The Tourist from last year would be expected, though a lower theater count and lack of a popular co-star will keep this from reaching that films' opening. Debuting in around 2,700 screens at around 2,200 theaters, look for a $12 million start and is also looking to be heading for a $40 million finish domestically.
After its' record-breaking start last weekend, Paranormal Activity 3 looks to cascade, though with it being Halloween weekend might soften the blow. A 55% drop to $23 million would put it at a strong $86 million in 10 days. Real Steel looks to also drop harder than previous weeks with competition for its' core audience. A 45% ease to roughly $6 million would give it $74 million in 24 days. The remake of Footloose will probably drop a similar amount with In Time taking its audience. A 45% drop to $5.5 million would give it $39 million in 17 days. The Three Musketeers will cascade due to competition and mixed audience reception, so a 50% drop to $4 million would give it just $15 million in 10 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Puss in Boots ($47.7 million)
#2: Paranormal Activity 3 ($22.8 million, -56%)
#3: In Time ($13.1 million)
#4: The Rum Diary ($11.8 million)
#5: Real Steel ($5.8 million, -46%)
#6: Footloose ($5.5 million, -45%)
#7: The Three Musketeers ($4.2 million, -47%)
#8: The Ides of March ($3 million, -39%)
#9: Moneyball ($2.7 million, -30%)
#10: Dolphin Tale ($2.3 million, -46%)
This post was written on my Nintendo 3DS (for the most part, changes were made later)...
