Box office looks to jump up again from last year with the holdovers, as expected, topping the new releases....
Moneyball held the #1 spot for the second-straight Friday, easing 38% to an estimated $3.9 million. Like last weekend though, the Brad Pitt baseball drama will narrowly miss out on the top spot again, as the family-friendly pics get much bigger bumps on Saturdays, and could fall as far as third place by the time Sunday hits. Right now, I think a second weekend of $12.5 million could result and that would boost its' tally to near $40 million in 10 days.
Dolphin Tale held a bit better with overwhelmingly positive word-of-mouth, easing 32% to an estimated $3.5 million. Family flicks tend to see bigger multipliers over their second and third weekends, and while its' in second place now, expect it to come on top for the weekend with $14.5 million, for a 10-day total of a slightly weaker $38 million.
The Lion King 3-D does stumble a bit after expanding past its' original two-week engagement, dropping 46% to an estimated $3.3 million. But remember, there is no more animated competition until Puss in Boots (which was recently moved up a week to October 28), and a lot of families don't have Blu-ray players (the single-disc DVD follows on November 15), so we should expect a similar bump-up this weekend and good holds to come. The typical family bump will give the re-release $13 million for its' third weekend, and a $82 million tally in 17 days.
Out of all the new releases, surprisingly, Sherwood Pictures' Courageous was able to outdo the others, despite playing at just 1,161 theaters. The Christian drama opened to a solid estimated $3.1 million on Friday, which was higher than the studios' last film Fireproof ($2.3 million) and not far behind the recent faith-based dramas Soul Surfer ($3.7 million) and Secretariat ($4 million). The film had the top ticket pre-order sales on Fandango earlier this week, which was helped by church groups and communities. Look for Courageous to finish the weekend with $9.5 million.
The other three new releases stumbled. 50/50 and Dream House tied for fifth place, earning an estimated $2.7 million apiece, and should gross around $8.5 million and $7.5 million for the weekend. What's Your Number? did just as I expected, floundering with an estimated $2.1 million and seventh place, and will gross $6 million for the weekend.
Here is the projected Top 10 (updated):
#1: Dolphin Tale ($14.4 million, -26%)
#2: The Lion King 3D ($13.1 million, -41%)
#3: Moneyball ($12.3 million, -39%)
#4: Courageous ($9.6 million)
#5: 50/50 ($8.7 million)
#6: Dream House ($7.6 million)
#7: What's Your Number? ($6 million)
#8: Abduction ($5.2 million, -59%)
#9: Contagion ($4.8 million, -42%)
#10: Killer Elite ($4.6 million, -51%)
