Out of all the new releases though, I think that PG-13 horror flick Dream House has the best shot. The film stars Daniel Craig, who is a bankable star (though his last flick, Cowboys & Aliens, floundered). Horror flicks haven't fared well this year, with the biggest one, Insidious, grossing $54 million domestically. Besides that, horror flicks have averaged this year to open between $8 and $11 million, with the most recent ones (Final Destination 5, Apollo 18, Shark Night 3-D, Fright Night, Scream 4, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark) all performing below expectations. The film has seen modest promotion, but hasn't been able to be screened in front of critics yet. And with it being the beginning of the Halloween movie season, opening in around 2,800 screens at around 2,400 theaters, expect Dream House to start off with a modest $11 million.
Next up is R-rated dramedy (drama and comedy) 50/50. Starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Seth Rogen, the film has recieved unanimous praise from critics, and is based on the life of a film screenwriter who lives battling cancer. As for the films' potential, it is facing some competition with Moneyball and Contagion, and both Levitt and Rogen aren't huge draws at the box office. But the modest buzz and broad acclaim should convince more moviegoers to show up, but only in fairly decent numbers. Debuting in around 3,000 screens at 2,600+ theaters, look for 50/50 to walk off with roughly $10 million.
Also hitting theaters this weekend is Christian drama Courageous, from Sherwood Pictures, the producers of the #1 Independent Movie of 2008, Fireproof, which grossed $6.7 million on its' opening weekend from just over 850 theaters back around this same time that year. That flick would also see good legs, finishing with $33 million and ranking in the Top 10 faith-based movies of all-time. And while that film had a bigger star (Kirk Cameron), which may have helped that films' potential, it is obvious that the faith-based community and church communities have encouraged people to go see this one. With bigger promotion and a bigger distributor (TriStar Pictures), buzz has been modest, but hasn't been screened for critics yet. Probably the best comparison would be Soul Surfer, another faith-based drama that opened to $10.6 million earlier this year and finished with a strong $44 million, though that had better promotion and appealed to a more family-friendly audience. While some projections have put this film slightly lower than Fireproof, I am going on a limb and say that Courageous (debuting in 1,100+ theaters) opens to $8 million this weekend.
The other new release this weekend is Anna Faris comedy What's Your Number? Unfortunately for this flick, it's not being released at a good time. It is a book adaption, and while there is a striking exception with The Help, other adaptions, such as One Day and I Don't Know How She Does It have failed with openings of around $5 million. Luckily for Faris though (and co-star Chris Evans), this has enough starpower to probably go past those numbers, and the R rating will bring in more of the young audience. But it has been met with predominately negative response from critics and it faces competition from 50/50. As the widest new release of the weekend at around 3,300 screens at over 3,000 theaters, What's This Film's Number? $6.5 million and the lowest of all the new releases.
With not so much potential for the new releases, its' going to be a battle once again between The Lion King 3-D, Moneyball, and Dolphin Tale for the top spot. But because of its' A+ CinemaScore grade and no more family competition, Dolphin Tale should wind up on top this time with a 25% drop (same as The Help and Secretariat), with $14.5 million and giving it a 10-day total of $37 million. Lion King should be in the race for a three-peat (if it does it will be the first time this year a film has topped the box office for three consecutive weekends) with a 33% drop to $14 million and a 17-day total of a staggering $82 million. Moneyball will benefit from its' "A" grade and ease around 33% to $13 million, for a $39 million tally in 10 days.
The remaining second weekend holdovers look like they will be out of the Top 10 before we know it. Taylor Lautner's Abduction and independent release Killer Elite both look to drop at 50% each due to more competition and overall mixed audience response, giving them $5.5 million and $4.5 million, for 10-day totals of $20 million and $18 million.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Dolphin Tale ($14.7 million, -23%)
#2: The Lion King 3-D ($14.3 million, -31%)
#3: Moneyball ($13.2 million, -32%)
#4: Dream House ($11 million)
#5: 50/50 ($9.8 million)
#6: Courageous ($8.1 million)
#7: What's Your Number? ($6.5 million)
#8: Abduction ($5.5 million, -48%)
#9: Killer Elite ($4.6 million, -51%)
#10: Contagion ($4.4 million, -46%)
