Sunday, October 2, 2011

Weekend Box Office Report: "Dolphin Tale" Jumps To #1....

Box office continued to be up from last year with the holdovers, as expected, remaining on top....



After debuting in third last weekend, Dolphin Tale benefited from great word-of-mouth and jumped to the top spot in its' second weekend, easing just 27% to $13.9 million, for a 10-day total of $37.2 million.  That matches the 10-day total of Secretariat, but that film had a $9.6 million second weekend, so Dolphin will beat that films' $60 million total.  However, with relatively weak weekday business, don't expect the film to hit the $100 million mark, but continued good word-of mouth should lead it to around $80 million.

Moneyball holds on to second place, and declines a modest 38% to $12 million.  Taking the "on deck" position for two weeks straight, the Brad Pitt baseball drama has earned $38 million in 10 days, and has not seen the strongest weekdays either.  A final domestic tally of $70 million might not be quite enough to get the awards attention that critics think it deserves.

The Lion King 3-D was extended past its planned two-week limited engagement, but apparently not enough people knew about that and it dropped 52% to $10.6 million, sliding to third place after topping for two weeks straight.  With $79.2 million in 17 days, it has moved into the Top 10 all-time domestically.  Even with its' Blu-ray release on Tuesday, Disney is going to try to get it to $100 million, a feat that is possible with many families not owning the rather expensive Blu-ray players.  But regardless of the result, Disney is likely to re-release more of its' animated classics in 3-D for years to come.



The biggest surprise of the weekend was the strength of Sherwood Pictures' latest Christian drama Courageous.  Earning fourth place on its' debut, the film earned a solid $9.1 million, for a per-theater average of a strong $7,806 from just 1,161 theaters.  That ranked as the fifth highest-grossing opening for a Christian film, behind Passion of the Christ and the three Narnia movies, and wasn't far behind this years' other faith-based drama, Soul Surfer ($10.6 million).  Courageous recieved mainly mixed critical response, but was awarded a rare "A+" CinemaScore grade and was #1 on Fandango for ticket pre-sales most of this week, which was primarily due to church and Christian communities encouraging people to go see it, and it worked.  Even better, the film was produced for a meager $2 million, which means it will probably become one of the biggest hits of the year (in terms of profitability).



Even though it came in fifth place when actuals were reported, 50/50 still did solid business with $8.6 million, for a per-theater average of a mild $3,517 from around 2,900 screens at 2,458 theaters.  And while that was on the low end for Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt's film careers, the film recieved broad critical acclaim and an "A-" grade from CinemaScore audiences.  Like Courageous, the film will become a box office success as the film was produced for just $8 million by distributor Summit Entertainment, who has been quiet this year in terms of movies.

Right behind them in sixth place is Dream House, which debuted on the low end of expectations with $8.1 million, for a per-theater average of a mild $3,055 from around 3,000 screens at 2,661 theaters.  That was on par with Don't Be Afraid of the Dark but was still disappointing considering it earned a "B" CinemaScore grade and was produced for a costly $50 million.  Horror films typically see a bumpy road ahead, though this film may do better by the fact that its' the Halloween movie season and there is no new competition for two weeks.  Nonetheless though, it won't end up being profitable for distributor Universal, who once again hasn't seen the best year.

Taylor Lautner's Abduction followed in seventh place with an understandable 49% drop to $5.6 million, for a $19.1 million total in 10 days and won't reach its' $36 million budget domestically, but a finish of $30 million plus maybe some good international grosses might turn a slight profit.

The other new release, Anna Faris comedy What's Your Number? bombed in eighth place with just $5.4 million, for a per-theater average of a weak $1,806 from around 3,300 screens at the widest new release of the weekend, 3,002 theaters.  That ranked alongside One Day and I Don't Know How She Does It as proof that moviegoers haven't been impressed with the book adaptions this year ("B" CinemaScore grade, which is the same as the other two).  Produced for $20 million by distributor 20th Century Fox, it will very much fall short of that number domestically.

Killer Elite and Contagion rounded out the Top 10 with $4.9 million apiece (actuals reported them nearly $10,000 apart from each other).  The Robert De Niro independent release dropped 47% and has $17.5 million in 10 days.  The Matt Damon thriller eased 42% and has $64.6 million in 24 days, beating the final tally of Damon's previous movie The Adjustment Bureau in the process.

In milestone news, R-rated Cameron Diaz comedy Bad Teacher became the years' 22nd film to reach the $100 million mark domestically.

Overall box office was up 1% from last year when critically-acclaimed Facebook drama  The Social Network topped the box office with a solid $22.4 million.  The Jesse Eisenburg flick would go on to win Best Picture at the Oscars and gross $97 million at the domestic box office.  With no new competition for its' audience, Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole held well and held onto second place with a 32% drop to $10.8 million.  Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, on the other hand, dropped 47% to $10 million and third place.  Leggy holdovers The Town and Easy A rounded out the Top 5, with 38% and 36% drops to $9.7 million and $6.7 million.  The other two new releases, horror flicks Case 39 and Let Me In, were ignored in seventh and eighth places with debuts of $5.4 million and $5.1 million.

Here is the final Top 10:

#         Movie                                             Actual Number        Projected Estimate        My Prediction

1        Dolphin Tale                               $13,912,419           $14,245,000          $14,500,000
2        Moneyball                                   $12,031,592           $12,500,000          $13,300,000
3        The Lion King 3-D                     $10,615,645           $11,096,000          $14,200,000
4        Courageous                                  $9,063,147             $8,800,000            $8,000,000
5        50/50                                              $8,644,095             $8,858,000            $9,800,000
6        Dream House                                $8,129,355            $8,200,000           $11,000,000
7        Abduction                                     $5,608,053            $5,700,000            $5,500,000
8        What's Your Number?                 $5,421,669            $5,600,000            $6,500,000
9        Killer Elite                                      $4,916,839            $4,800,000            $4,600,000
10      Contagion                                      $4,907,154           $5,016,000            $4,400,000