For the year 2019, the box office stumbled a bit in comparison to last year. In spite of many big franchises, overall business was down close to 4% from last year to $11.39 billion. While not a bad drop per se (and still up from 2017), it's certainly a minor alarm as more entertainment options (Disney+, AppleTV+, Netflix and others) serve to distract audiences from theaters.
It was also an interesting year of mergers, as the 20th Century Fox film studio officially went under the Disney umbrella, shortening the Big Six to five major studios. And, there's talk of some of the smaller studios getting acquired as well.
So, for this post, here's the plan. I will be talking about each studio and how they fared this year, and then look at how they might fare next year.
Disney
2019 domestic gross: $3.7 billion (up 21% from last year)
2019 in Review....
Everyone knew that Disney was going to be a powerhouse this year, with seven movies joining the $1 billion club (a record for a studio). Of course, everyone knew that Avengers: Endgame was going to be huge, but no one I'm sure thought it would smash the opening weekend record by almost $100 million (and earn $1.2 billion worldwide in a single weekend). The Lion King remake was also guaranteed to be a huge hit thanks to years of nostalgia, as the remake poured in over $1.5 billion worldwide to break into the Top 10 all-time. Frozen 2 built off the intense fanfare of the original and is on track to top its' predecessor's $1.275 billion worldwide final, in addition to a possible $500 million domestic gross. And Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is still pulling a strong audience for legions of Force fans, even if it is tapering off a bit from previous installments.
Captain Marvel was even bigger than anyone expected, a testament to the power of Marvel's brand, riding to over $400 million stateside and $1.1 billion worldwide. The Aladdin remake overcame controversy and tapped into the nostalgia of the 1992 original on its way to becoming the surprise hit of the summer, pulling in $350 million stateside and close to $1.1 billion worldwide. And the nostalgia of all three predecessors helped Toy Story 4 reach the $1 billion club as well.
Now, not everything worked. The Dumbo remake in March was a mild miss, earning just $350 million worldwide against a $170 million budget. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil fared better, but wasn't quite as profitable as the original with the worldwide gross only pulling in 2/3 of its' predecessor ($500 million versus $750 million). And the inheritance of the Fox catalog resulted in major losses for troubled X-Men production Dark Phoenix and Ad Astra.
What's to come in 2020...
Studios are breathing a sigh of relief that the Mouse House doesn't have nearly as strong of a line-up as 2019, with more original films. That is especially represented by both animation divisions, as Disney Animation has Raya and the Last Dragon for Thanksgiving and Pixar has Onward and Soul in the Spring and Summer. All three look like strong concepts, but don't expect them to be billion-dollar earners.
The only remake on Disney's calendar this year is Mulan hitting theaters in March. That film has been hit with a lot of controversy in China, but in America, it should very much appeal to fans of the 1998 original. It probably won't be as big as Lion King or Aladdin, but it should do solid business. Disney is making a movie version of their theme park ride Jungle Cruise this July, which could work for two reasons: Emily Blunt and Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. Strong casting choices will help Disney keep this from being another costly loss like Tomorrowland was in 2015.
There's no Star Wars movies on the calendar, and Marvel's two films look to be lesser successes. Yet Black Widow seems to be the studio's only real shot at $1 billion, thanks to her characters' surge in popularity over the years and fans dying to see her get her own movie. The Eternals looks like a riskier bet, but strong casting in Angelina Jolie and Richard Madden will definitely help.
On the downside, Disney delayed their Artemis Fowl adaptation to the end of May, in what might be a big miss. The One and Only Ivan opens in August with a strong cast (Angelina Jolie, Sam Rockwell, Bryan Cranston), but its' tough to open a movie strong in that month.
As for the Fox division, their slate is a mixed bag. Horror pic Underwater, Harrison Ford adaptation Call of the Wild, the long-delayed New Mutants and Woman in the Window, animated TV series adaptation Bobs Burgers, sci-fi flick Inconstant Moon, comedy Everyone's Talking About Jamie and thriller Deep Water all don't look like they have good prospects. On the positive side, prequel The King's Man, Steven Spielberg's West Side Story, Ryan Reynolds' action comedy Free Guy, and mystery sequel Death on the Nile seem to have the best shot at doing well stateside.
Warner Bros.
2019 domestic gross: $1.558 billion, -19% from last year.
2019 in review...
Warners had a very mixed year, with many franchises that were hoped to help didn't. The LEGO Movie 2, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, Shaft and Doctor Sleep (most surprisingly) failed to really generate excitement, and too many adult thrillers late in the year all failed to bring in an audience. Horror flicks did AOK, but not too impressively as both Curse of La Llorona and Annabelle Comes Home fell short of their predecessors, while It - Chapter 2 lost over a third of its' predecessors' business. However, with $450 million worldwide, the sequel still performed fairly well overall.
On the more positive side, Warner Bros. successfully tapped into the Pokemon fanbase as Detective Pikachu rode to nearly $450 million worldwide. DC remained a strong asset, with Shazam performing solidly with $375 million worldwide on a lower budget, and Joker really surprising everyone with Oscar buzz and the first R-rated movie to gross over $1 billion worldwide.
What's to come in 2020...
2020 definitely looks more promising, with plenty to offer moviegoers. Their biggest hit will likely be Wonder Woman: 1984, which has a strong chance at hitting $1 billion thanks to the goodwill of its' 2017 predecessor. The DC Universe also has Birds of Prey with Suicide Squad breakout Margot Robbie returning to the role of Harley Quinn. While a likely R rating may hold it back, it should be a strong player early in the year.
Christopher Nolan also returns with a mysterious movie called Tenet, while the studios' Hanna Barbera catalog makes a couple of returns here with Scoob! and Tom and Jerry hoping to tap into those fanbases. And the studio has a buzzy adaptation of Lin Manuel-Miranda's In the Heights to look forward to in the summer also.
Towards the downside, Warners will take advantage of the holidays with two pricey blockbusters. After a sequel to Godzilla didn't work, the studio will hope that a pre-Thanksgiving start will help Godzilla vs. Kong succeed. And their adaptation of Dune will take the typical Star Wars weekend, in what will hopefully be a huge hit, or a pricey miss. Right now its' up in the air. A third Conjuring movie is also on the calendar in September, which could be hit or miss. Roald Dahl's The Witches also is up in the air in October. A few other minor budget flicks opening are unknowns at this point, including Ben Affleck's The Way Back and Angelina Jolie's thriller Those Who Wish Me Dead (man, she's busy this year).
Universal
2019 domestic gross: $1.51 billion, -16% from last year.
2019 in review...
If there's one studio who usually could go toe to toe with Disney in recent memory, its' Universal. But not this year. The studio couldn't quite rise to the challenge animation-wise, with Secret Life of Pets 2 down 60% from its predecessor stateside and over 50% worldwide (however, thank goodness Illumination's movies are cheap to make). How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World fared a lot better, but was surprisingly front-loaded on its way to $160 million stateside. However, it did get above $500 million worldwide. Finally, Abominable was a big misfire late this year, earning just $60 million domestic and $175 million worldwide.
With Dragon, the horror hit Us and M. Night Shyalaman's Glass, they did get off to a solid start. They did get $750 million out of spin-off Hobbs and Shaw (though domestically it wasn't exactly strong). And they turned a controversial R-rated movie about 12-year olds (Good Boys) into a surprise late-summer hit.
But Universal struggled towards the end of the year, with Last Christmas and Black Christmas struggling, and Cats accumulating controversy and lack of interest on its way to what might be a $70 million loss for the studio. At least Queen and Slim worked for its' audience.
What's to come in 2020...
Universal definitely has a stronger year ahead, with Minions: The Rise of Gru in July and Fast and Furious 9 in April both likely to reach $1 billion. Halloween Kills will be a strong sequel in October, while DreamWorks Animation will deliver two possible hit sequels as well with Trolls: World Tour in April and The Croods 2 at Christmastime.
Toss-ups include the pricey remake of Dolittle with Robert Downey Jr., horror flicks The Turning and The Purge 5, and reboots of The Invisible Man and Candyman. Tom Hanks stars in two movies for the studio; sci-fi flick BIOS which could be a pricey miss if it doesn't land well, and true story flick News of the World which may or may not succeed depending on awards season chances.
Sony
2019 domestic gross: $1.32 billion, up 3% from last year.
2019 in review...
Sony seemed to fare the best in terms of counter-programming Disney, especially late in the year. However, a lot of that gross can be attributed to Spider-Man: Far From Home becoming a huge $1 billion-sized hit (that's under the Marvel umbrella). But Sony had other hits. From small-budget flicks earning big profits (Escape Room, A Dog's Way Home, Little Women), to original hit and possible Oscar winner Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Jumanji: The Next Level might not reach $1 billion like it was expected to, but its' still churning out possibly $300 million stateside, a rarity for a non-Disney movie in 2019. And Zombieland: Double Tap matched its predecessor's gross domestic and worldwide, a rarity for sequels nowadays. And while Overcomer was only able to earn half of War Room's numbers, it was still a profitable hit for Sony's faith-based division and the Kendricks.
There were a few pricey misses. Reboots of Men in Black and Charlie's Angels and a sequel to Angry Birds failed to generate audience interest, while TriStar's awards season hopeful A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood didn't quite catch on with awards season in a crowded market for adults.
What's to come in 2020...
2020 isn't looking quite as strong for Sony, as they only have nine major films on the calendar for the big label Columbia (five others are split between TriStar and Screen Gems). Most of these are franchise try-outs/sequels. Among the sequels, animated/live-action hybrid Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway and the highly-anticipated Venom 2 stand the best chance. A smaller-scale sequel to Escape Room is on the calendar also, but on the post-Thanksgiving weekend, which isn't a good sign of confidence. Hopefully they will move it up to give it a better chance.
A new installment in the Bad Boys movies debuts in a few weeks, with mixed expectations. Same goes for a new installment in Ghostbusters this summer (which looks like it took the Terminator route in marketing). A horrorized reboot of Fantasy Island could go either way. Casting Vin Diesel for adaptation Bloodshot also is up in the air. The Sony part of the Marvel catalog has a second movie in vampire villain Morbius in late-July, which could be a hit if its' marketed right. Finally, Tom Hanks war movie Greyhound finally releases in May after a major delay, and may or may not succeed.
TriStar's stand-out is Kevin Hart comedy Fatherhood, while Screen Gems has a reboot of The Grudge to start off 2020 with mixed expectations.
Lionsgate
2019 domestic gross: $768.5 million, +98% from last year.
2019 in review...
Lionsgate did pretty well in 2019, thanks mostly to a few strong franchises. John Wick - Chapter 3: Parabellum outpaced its predecessors to a $170 million domestic gross, while Tyler Perry's last turn as Madea gave A Madea Family Funeral $75 million stateside and the second-biggest gross in that franchise's history. Angel Has Fallen played very well late in summer, earning $70 million stateside and winding up ahead of its' more immediate predecessor domestically. And the studio also had a major year-end hit with Knives Out, which finished 2019 above $100 million.
The studio did have a few major misses in the form of comedy Long Shot ($30M), a reboot of H***boy ($20M), and Luc Besson's Anna (less than $10M).
What's to come in 2020...
For most years, Lionsgate usually doesn't have much scheduled at the beginning. A lot of their films pop up throughout the year. And this year isn't much different. There are a few stand-outs. Faith-based I Still Believe is the Erwin Brothers' anticipated next project after I Can Only Imagine was a breakout hit two years ago. It may not be as big, but it will be a strong hit for Lionsgate if marketed right. Janelle Monae stars in horror flick Antebellum, and a unique comedy for Kristen Wiig titled Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar could bring in an audience. On the toss-up side, there's a reboot of Saw with Samuel L. Jackson that could go either way.
Paramount
2019 domestic gross: $563.4 million, -26%
2019 in review...
The last place major studio continues to struggle a bit, with not much in the way of true success. Their biggest hit of the year was Elton John biopic Rocketman, which managed nearly $200 million worldwide. They did have a minor hit in alligator horror flick Crawl ($90 million worldwide), and Dora and the Lost City of Gold pretty much broke even with $120M worldwide.
However, their biggest movies of the year flopped hard. No one was interested in Terminator: Dark Fate ($60M domestic, $260M worldwide), and pricey gamble Gemini Man fared even worse with just $50 million stateside. Animated effort Wonder Park was also a disappointment in a crowded March, earning $45 million stateside.
What's to come in 2020...
Thankfully for the Melrose studio, much better product is coming. There are three films that look to at least earn $100 million stateside, if not $150 million. Animated threequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge On the Run, long-awaited sequel Top Gun: Maverick, and highly-anticipated sequel A Quiet Place: Part II. They also have the buzzy spin-off to Jack Ryan, Without Remorse starring Michael B. Jordan, and a Tiffany Haddish comedy called Like a Boss that has solid potential early this year. And a sequel to Eddie Murphy's Coming 2 America could prove to be a good idea or a bad idea.
Paramount also has current "it guy" Chris Pratt for action flick The Tomorrow War set for Christmas. On more of the downside, the studio has another pricey sci-fi flick in the form of Infinite, which stars Mark Wahlberg but carries mixed vibes. A delayed Sonic the Hedgehog has a better character design, but also has mixed expectations in theaters. Another delayed picture, The Rhythm Section, looks to be buried over Super Bowl weekend.
Other question marks include sci-fi flick Monster Problems, G.I. Joe reboot Snake Eyes and children's book adaptation Clifford the Big Red Dog.
As for other studios, STX and A24 don't have much on their schedule right now, and like Lionsgate, will add as they go. As for MGM and United Artists, they have guaranteed box office hit No Time to Die (the next James Bond movie) opening in April. Also, long-awaited follow-up Bill and Ted Face the Music (August), a third Legally Blonde and an Aretha Franklin movie called Respect (October) all look to to be solid hits as well.
That's about it. In the end, how will these situations impact 2020? Time will tell...
