Sunday, June 30, 2019

Weekend Box Office Report: "Toy Story 4" Remains on Top Despite Drop, "Annabelle" OK, "Yesterday" Overperforms...

Overall business was off 18% from this same weekend last year, when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom easily remained #1 with $61 million, while newbies Sicario 2 ($19 million) and Uncle Drew ($15 million) didn't quite pull in a lot of attention.


Toy Story 4 poster.jpgIt's not a surprise that Toy Story 4 remained planted at the #1 spot. However, the hold wasn't exactly great, as the latest toy adventure was off 52% to $57.9 million. However, the 10-day gross is at a still-pretty-awesome $236.9 million. In comparison, Toy Story 3 was off 46% in its second weekend to $59.3 million, and had earned $226.9 million through the same point. How this movie holds from here will depend on word-of-mouth, which is overall very strong. The next two weeks have no competition so it should easily remain a strong player. Overseas, the film continues to play strong with $80 million earned in most overseas territories. The worldwide gross will likely eclipse $500 million in the next few days. Whether or not it ultimately reaches $1 billion will depend on how it holds overseas, but it seems very possible at this point.





Opening in second place was the latest in the Conjuring universe, Annabelle Comes Home. Burnt off a bit from a Wednesday start, the horror flick opened towards the low-end of expectations with $20.4 million (decent $5,638 per-venue average), for a 5-day start of $31.2 million. While not a direct apples-to-apples comparison because of the Wednesday start, the first two Annabelle films earned $37 million and $35 million on their opening weekends. It's also behind the $26 million launch of earlier this year's The Curse of La Llarona. However, to be fair, there's been quite a bit of competition for horror films as of late, making overall demand much less than expected. Yet, Annabelle managed to out-perform the openings of both Ma ($18 million) and last week's Child's Play ($14 million). One has to wonder with a little bit more breathing room (perhaps a late-July opening) might would have helped it put more rear ends into theater seats. Reviews were solid for this entry, with a decent "B-" (for the genre) CinemaScore. And, overseas numbers are spectacular, with a $45 million launch from most overseas markets. On a budget that is around $30 million (based on insider reports), a $75 million worldwide launch is still pretty darn good.

Yesterday (2019 poster).pngPerhaps the biggest surprise, however, was how well Yesterday performed. The original concept from director Danny Boyle managed to pull in $17 million (good $6,531 per-venue average from 2,600 locations), pulling in Beatles fans. The musical dramedy might not be a blockbuster, but its a much-needed win for distributor Universal in what has been a mixed year for them. The fresh concept, plus a solid marketing effort, and a different-enough approach to pull in mainstream audiences worked some wonders this weekend. With a solid "A-" CinemaScore, Yesterday will hope to play as a solid alternative option for adults over the remainder of the summer. Universal produced the film for $26 million, and analysts were expecting a debut close to $10 million.








Another pleasant surprise is how surprisingly well Aladdin is playing. The remake of the 1992 Disney classic held well once again, off 29% to $9.3 million. The musical has earned a strong $305.9 million in six weeks of release, and should have at least two more weeks of playing strong before fellow Disney 90's remake The Lion King opens. Overseas, it continues to play strong also, with the worldwide gross at $875 million and counting.

Finally finding its sea legs, The Secret Life of Pets 2 was off a light 31% in its fourth frame to $7.1 million. The animated sequel continues to severely lag behind the original however, with $131.2 million in 24 days. Look for a final gross around $160 million, or less than half of the $370 million earned by the original film. Overseas numbers aren't great either, with the worldwide gross at $225 million on its way to maybe $400 million if it picks up steam in markets its' yet to open in. Let's just say it, Disney competition really sucked the life out of this title.

Men in Black: International also recovered a bit this weekend, off 39% in its third frame to $6.6 million. However, the reboot continues to struggle, with just $65 million in 10 days. The domestic final gross will likely wind up around $80 million (Sony will likely put it in double-features with Spider-Man: Far From Home), and overseas numbers aren't promising either. International has earned $220 million worldwide so far with business fading quick. If it doesn't reach $300 million, it will likely result in red ink for the Culver City lot.

Re-expanding to 2,000 locations, Avengers: Endgame added a few new things and brought back out a few fans. The blockbuster earned $5.5 million in its 10th overall weekend (9th in the Top 10), for a massive $841.3 million pick-up in 70 days. The re-release was for two purposes: One, to drum up anticipation for next weeks' Spider-Man, and two, to try and take down Avatar and become the biggest movie of all-time worldwide. With maybe $10 million more to earn stateside and the overseas run just about over, I still think its' going to fall about $15 million short (but Disney could give it a Labor Day re-release to make up the remaining ground). Right now, it stands at $2.761 billion ($27 million behind the $2.788 billion Avatar made).

Having the unfortunate disadvantage of opening right before Annabelle, Child's Play crashed and burned in its sophomore frame. The Chucky reboot was down 70% to $4.3 million, for a moderate $23.4 million in 10 days against a $10 million budget. The final gross may not reach $30 million, in what has been a decent, if not exactly good performance. Rocketman continued to hold solidly, off 31% in its fifth weekend to $3.9 million. The Elton John biopic has pulled in a solid $84.2 million in one month of release, along with another $80 million overseas.

Rounding out the Top 10 in its seventh frame is John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum. Keanu Reeves' action thriller held well again, off just 22% to $3.2 million, for a strong $161.3 million, on its way to maybe $170 million by the end of the summer. The fact that it almost doubled Chapter 2's $90 million final gross has to be considered a big accomplishment. Overseas numbers haven't been quite as impressive, but it did pass $300 million worldwide.

That's about it. Tuesday brings next weekend's big new release, Spider-Man: Far From Home. I will analyze its grosses Tuesday and Wednesday before releasing predictions for the weekend Wednesday evening. Looking for way more modest results is horror flick Midsommar, which opens that Friday. Hope all has a great week!