Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Weekend Box Office Report: "Godzilla" Tops But Fails to Breakout, "Rocketman" and "Ma" Both Solid...

Overall business powered ahead of this same weekend by 63%, which featured Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 still on top with $29 million and $23 million, respectively.


Godzilla รข€“ King of the Monsters (2019) poster.pngOpening at #1, as expected, was Godzilla: King of the Monsters. However, for a movie that was budgeted between $170 and $200 million, it didn't get the strong start it so desperately needed. The sequel pulled in $47.8 million (solid $11,630 per-venue average), half of the first Godzilla's $94 million opening from five years ago. Tracking was always mixed heading into release, as the film entered a very competitive Summer, with both PG-13 and R-rated action options entertaining crowds. The film also came in behind Kong: Skull Island's $61 million launch from two years ago. Analysts predicted anywhere between $50 and $65 million. Audiences gave it a solid "B+" CinemaScore, but competition will continue to ramp up in the coming weeks with X-Men: Dark Phoenix and Men in Black: International opening over the next two weeks. In fact, if King of the Monsters follows the same trajectory as its predecessor, it will have a hard time getting too far beyond $100 million stateside. That would definitely make the film a major box office bomb if it ends up holding similarly.


The film fared better overseas, but it also came in behind expectations. Analysts forecasted a $200 million overseas launch (it opened in 90% of international territories), but it ended up at $130 million, for a $177 million worldwide launch. $70 million of the total came from China, which was expected to hit close to $100 million for its' opening frame. At this rate, with competition, the worldwide gross may have a hard time topping $400 million (the original Godzilla earned over $500 million worldwide).

After a strong start last week, Aladdin held on very well for a Memorial Day release. The remake of the 1992 classic was down 53% in its sophomore frame to $42.8 million, for a very good $185.5 million pick-up in 10 days. Most Memorial Day holdovers, in the meantime, drop an average of 55-60% for the weekend. Benefiting from solid word-of-mouth, Aladdin will hope to withstand next week's Secret Life of Pets 2 to keep pulling in family audiences. Overseas numbers remain strong too, with the worldwide gross approaching $450 million so far.


Rocketman (film).pngOpening in third place was the musical biopic Rocketman. The Elton John biopic came in ahead of distributor Paramount's expectations ($18-22 million), but behind other analysts' projections ($30+ million). It opened to a solid $25.7 million (good $7,126 per-venue average). On the downside, that's half of Bohemian Rhapsody's $51 million launch back last November. However, that film was PG-13, so its' not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. However, its' a promising start against a $40 million budget. The film received rave reviews and a solid "A-" CinemaScore. With little options for older crowds coming up, this could prove to be a leggy hit over the next couple of months. It's also pulled in $32 million overseas so far as well.









Ma Official Movie Poster.jpgThe final new release, horror thriller Ma opened solidly in fourth. The Octavia Spencer flick pulled in $18.1 million (solid $6,446 per-venue average), mostly in line with expectations even though some thought it might get higher than $20 million. That's in line with Escape Room from earlier this year ($18 million), and is over three times its $5 million budget. While not a blockbuster debut, Ma proved to be solid counter-programming to the bigger films playing right now. Audiences gave it a mixed "B-" CinemaScore (which is above-average for the horror genre). There isn't much in the way of competition for the film coming up, so maybe it will play strongly in the weeks ahead.









Continuing to fall fast, John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum fell 55% in its third weekend to $11.1 million. However, with a strong $125.7 million in 17 days, the threequel is still performing way ahead of its predecessors. It's also at $225 million worldwide. Lionsgate has set a May 2021 release date for a fourth installment.

Taking a hit from Godzilla, Avengers: Endgame fell 53% in its sixth weekend to $8 million. With a gargantuan $815.7 million in 42 days, it will likely take another hit from X-Men: Dark Phoenix next week. Endgame continues to close in on Avatar overseas, with $2.714 billion so far, its about $73 million behind. With another $20-25 million domestic and maybe similar amounts overseas, the film is on track to finish around $2.76 billion, just $20-30 million behind. At this point, Disney could consider a re-release to get it to that level if possible.

Another movie that has proven to be frontloaded is Detective Pikachu. The Pokemon film was off 48% in its fourth weekend to $7 million, for a solid (if unspectacular) $130.9 million in 24 days. It's likely to take another hit from Secret Life of Pets 2 next week, and will probably only match its $150 million budget at most. However, overseas is saving the day, with the worldwide gross about to pass $400 million.

Last week's other new releases both failed to show signs of stability. Booksmart was down 52% to $3.3 million, while Brightburn collapsed 69% (off mixed word-of-mouth) to $2.5 million. Both films have earned $14.3 million in 10 days, and will both likely fall short of $20 million stateside. Both films had small budgets, so they probably will end up breaking even in the end.

Rounding out the Top 10 was The Hustle, which fell 63% to $1.3 million. Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson have earned a meh $33.2 million in 24 days against a $21 million budget. It's earned $75 million worldwide.

That's about it. Next weekend, its' Fox (or should I say Disney?) versus Universal as X-Men: Dark Phoenix and Secret Life of Pets 2 both track for good debuts next week. Predictions post coming on Thursday. :)