Thursday, June 6, 2019

Weekend Box Office Predictions for June 7-9, 2019.

Based on the predictions I'm making, overall business should be easily ahead of last year, which featured Ocean's 8 debuting at #1 with $41 million.

Here is the projected Top 10:

#1: The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($74 million)

The first Secret Life of Pets movie was well-received by animation fans and families (for the most part), and became Illumination Entertainment's biggest movie stateside at $370 million. With a competitive marketplace for families, I would not expect the sequel to go nearly as high. However, the animation studio usually keeps the budgets tidy on these projects, and with an $80 million budget here, it should easily be another profitable hit for them. I would expect about a 25% decline from the first film's $104 million start.


#2: X-Men: Dark Phoenix ($61 million)

This is a tough one to predict, as its' been subject to a few release date changes. Fox (now owned by Disney) has been marketing this one heavily as a "finale" to this movie series, as the characters prepare to integrate into the MCU. With that in mind, Dark Phoenix should bring out longtime fans of these movies to a decent opening. But, overall buzz hasn't quite caught on as well as recent blockbuster releases. So, I would expect something close to $60 million, with some wiggle room.


#3: Godzilla: King of the Monsters ($21 million, -56%)

With X-Men likely to take teenagers' attention away, Godzilla will probably drop hard this weekend.



#4: Aladdin ($20 million, -53%)

Disney's remake of their 1992 classic will probably take a hit with Pets in the marketplace, but its' still doing strong.


#5: Rocketman ($15 million, -42%)

With no new options for older crowds, this film should have one of the weekend's better holds.


#6: Ma ($8.5 million, -53%)

Horror flicks usually drop above 50% in their second weekends. I expect something similar here.



#7: John Wick - Chapter 3: Parabellum ($6 million, -46%)

The one thing that Wick has a distinct advantage this weekend is that none of the new titles this week are R-rated action flicks. That should lead to a better hold this week.

#8: Avengers: Endgame ($4 million, -50%)

With the X-Men in the marketplace, the Avengers will have no choice but to retreat.


#9: Detective Pikachu ($3.5 million, -50%)

Families will likely flock to Pets this weekend, leaving not much room left for Pikachu.

#10: Booksmart ($2 million, -39%)

A lack of appealing options for females should lead to one more round in the list for the Olivia Wilde flick.