Monday, December 31, 2018

Weekend Box Office Report: "Aquaman" Remains in Control, "Mary Poppins" Makes Up Ground as Others Fall Behind and Newbies Struggle...

Overall business was down 5% from this same weekend last year when Star Wars: The Last Jedi edged out a strong second weekend for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle to remain on top.


Aquaman poster.jpgThe holiday box office has been pretty much controlled by DC this year. Following a very good start, Aquaman had a very good hold in the post-Christmas frame. The comic book movie slipped a light 24% to $51.6 million, for a strong $188.8 million gross since its' launch 10 days ago. I know that hold sounds ridiculously good, but we need to remember that the weekend after Christmas always provides extra business for most films as kids and adults are still off from school/work. With New Year's still around the corner, you can expect the film to roar past $200 million in the next couple days, followed by continued solid playability through January. Overseas, however, is where the film is truly doing gangbusters. The James Wan film has earned over $250 million in China and already close to $750 million worldwide. There's a good chance this gets above the $1 billion mark. If it does, it will be the first DC film to do so since The Dark Knight Rises six years ago. All things considered, this is a major win for the folks at Warner Bros.



As for Disney, they got some good news Mary Poppins Returns. With families free from Christmas and shopping distractions, the musical rose 19% from last week to $28 million. Thanks to Christmas break, the film is at $98.9 million in 12 days so far. With some awards season buzz and hardly any competition for the target crowd next month, Poppins should remain a strong player through next month as well.

Meanwhile, Bumblebee didn't quite catch on despite the rave reception. The Transformers prequel was off a scant 5% from last week to $20.5 million. In 10 days, the attempted reboot has earned a moderate $66.8 million. That's not a strong number, even with New Year's likely to boost it a bit. Its' earned $90 million overseas so far, but that is without China's numbers. With solid word-of-mouth, we'll have to see how it plays over the next few weeks before I can call it a disappointment.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is also struggling from the idea that it has rave reception, but overall business hasn't really been huge. The possible Best Animated Feature Oscar winner did increase 11% from last week to $18.3 million. In 17 days, the PG flick has earned $103.6 million. That's ahead of its' $90 million budget. However, one wonders if it could have broken out if there wasn't nearly as much competition for kids and families. Thankfully, there's no new animated films opening until February.

Surprisingly, The Mule had a stronger jump than the two family films higher in the list. Clint Eastwood's latest was up a solid 24% to $11.8 million in its third weekend, for a very good $60.7 million gross in 17 days. Playing to an older audience not interested in big-budget flicks, Eastwood's latest looks to continue playing strong through January.


Vice (2018 film poster).pngThere were two other new releases that entered the fray on Christmas Day. Just barely edging out in front was historical dramedy Vice. The Dick Cheney movie was front-loaded through the week, earning $7.8 million in sixth place (mild $3,190 per-venue average). Its' earned $17.7 million since Christmas Day. With a weak "C+" CinemaScore and mixed reviews (it did earn six Golden Globe nominations, however), one has to wonder how this will play over the coming weeks. It could catch on with more left-leaning moviegoers, or it will fade quicker. For director Adam McKay, this is lower than the wide debut of his last film The Big Short ($10.5 million). Vice had a $60 million production budget for distributor Annapurna Pictures.









Holmes & Watson.pngMeanwhile, Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly suffered a misfire also with Holmes and Watson. After a solid Christmas Day start, the film was also very front-loaded and earned just $7.3 million over the weekend (weak $2,630 per-venue average). Since Christmas, its' earned $19.7 million. Audiences and critics have hated this movie (D+ CinemaScore), with numerous reports of audiences walking out of the movie mid-way through. That's not a good sign for future business. There was also word that distributor Sony (who produced the film for $42 million) was trying to sell the film to Netflix, as if they knew the movie was bad. But Netflix apparently didn't buy it. In the meantime, Sony can dodge a loss like this since they've had such a good year. There was no real official studio forecast for this movie (since it opened mid-week).





After a weak start last week, Jennifer Lopez's Second Act did gain 11% from last week to $7.2 million in a close eighth. The romantic comedy has earned $21.8 million in 10 days, not a great result (even though the budget was only $16 million). If it can make it to $40 million, it might be able to break even for distributor STX.

Two animated holdovers from November rounded out the list. With kids on break, Ralph Breaks the Internet rose a Top 10-best 39% to $6.5 million, for a decent $175.7 million gross in six weeks. That's about the same as what the original Wreck-it Ralph had earned by the end of the holidays, and is also just behind last year's Coco. Considering it earned close to half ($85 million) of its current gross over Thanksgiving weekend, its' performance has been surprisingly front-loaded for a Disney film.

With Christmas come and gone, The Grinch understandably fell 50% from last weekend to $4.2 million. However, the film has had a strong run with a $265.5 million gross in eight weeks. That's ahead of Jim Carrey's version of Grinch ($260 million) and will also end up ahead of Illumination's previous Christmas animated effort Sing ($270 million). The big point is that with just a $75 million budget, its' probably the most profitable title on this list. Its' also about to pass $500 million worldwide.

And that's about it. Over this week, I will be posting final reports from this year, predictions for next year, as well as my Top 10 movies of 2018 and the Top 10 anticipated films of 2019. As for the beginning of 2019, it will kick off with a horror flick (like most years) with Escape Room tracking for a solid debut. Look out for a predictions post on Wednesday. Happy New Year everyone! :)