Sunday, December 23, 2018

Weekend Box Office Report: "Aquaman" Easily Rules Pre-Christmas Frame, "Mary Poppins", "Bumblebee" and Other Openers Underwhelm...

Overall business was down a light 3% from this same weekend last year, which kept Star Wars: The Last Jedi on top, ahead of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Pitch Perfect 3 and The Greatest Showman.


Aquaman poster.jpgIt was set to be a strong weekend, but it turned out to be an easy win for DC and Warner Bros. with Aquaman. The latest superhero epic earned $67.4 million in its debut (strong $16,339 per-venue average). Including preview screenings over a week in advance, Aquaman has earned $72.1 million stateside. That was in line with the $65-70 million range most analysts projected. While that's an all-time low for the DC Extended Universe, all of their previous films opened before Christmas. And the weekend before Christmas usually doesn't have a film open in triple-digits (unless you're Star Wars). Instead, they end up earning 4-6 times their opening weekend thanks to kids being off for winter break. With that in mind, no one should freak out about this number. In the meantime, Aquaman has been a huge player overseas. In three weeks, its already earned $410 million internationally, with the worldwide gross already close to $500 million. Could this be a $1 billion grosser? Right now, that's a good question. We shall see what will happen. Distributor Warner Bros. produced the film for $200 million, and audiences gave it a solid "A-" CinemaScore.


Mary Poppins Returns (2018 film poster).pngMeanwhile, in a very distant second, Disney's Mary Poppins Returns didn't really soar in its debut. The sequel only could muster $22.2 million over the weekend (mild $5,436 per-venue average), for a $31 million gross since its Wednesday launch. That's below the expectations for both Disney ($35 million 5-day) and analysts ($45-55 million 5-day). That being said, the film's key audience is probably waiting until after Christmas Day to see it, as families are pretty busy right now with holiday preparations. Musicals also don't usually open strong but usually have strong legs (one key example is last year's The Greatest Showman, which turned a $9 million opening weekend into a $175 million final gross). With two weeks of break coming up plus some awards season buzz, Mary Poppins should be able to click more into gear as time passes. Disney produced the film for $130 million, while audiences gave it a solid "A-" CinemaScore.






Bbeefilmpsoter.pngIn third place, Transformers spin-off Bumblebee didn't take off either. Facing intense competition from Aquaman, the PG-13 action flick earned $21 million (mild $5,915 per-venue average). That's just behind expectations (most were thinking around $25 million), and is the lowest debut yet for the Transformers franchise. That being said, Bumblebee has earned strong notices from critics and audiences (solid "A-" CinemaScore), which may help it discover its' audience over Christmas break. But as another movie that was hoping to pull in older kids, it was a very crowded marketplace. Bumblebee has earned $30 million overseas so far and will hope overseas will provide the boost that boosted previous installments. On a budget north of $100 million, the film is going to need all the help it can get. Distributor Paramount did not release a final budget.





After a decent start last week, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse fell 53% in the midst of stiff competition to $16.7 million. The critically-acclaimed animated flick has earned $64.8 million in 10 days, along with an equal amount overseas (it got off to a strong China start this weekend too). While the gross isn't particularly strong so far, it should pick up considerable steam the next couple weeks.

Faring better in fifth place was The Mule. Clint Eastwood's latest was down 43% to $9.9 million, for a decent $35.7 million pick-up in 10 days, with plenty more to go. With Christmas coming up, The Grinch was off just 30% in its seventh week to $8.2 million. Illumination Entertainment's latest has pulled in a strong $253.2 million in 49 days, and $420 million worldwide. The film will pass the 2000 version of The Grinch ($260 million) over the next week.


Second Act.pngOpening in seventh place with mediocre numbers was Jennifer Lopez's latest, Second Act. The PG-13 comedy earned $6.5 million (weak $2,494 per-venue average), below the $7-10 million predicted by most analysts. While Lopez isn't as strong of a draw that she used to be, this is also a case of too crowded of a marketplace. Being a movie aimed more at adults, this may be able to play as a solid alternative over the coming weeks. Also, the budget was small ($16 million), which means any red ink spilled will be minimal if it bombs. But, Christmas is kind to most films, so we will see how it ends up. Distributor STX Films didn't release expectations, while audiences gave it a decent "B+" CinemaScore.








With more competition for its target audience (including a new Disney movie), Ralph Breaks the Internet fell 50% in its fifth weekend to $4.6 million. The sequel is at $162.1 million in one month of release, as it continues its surprisingly front-loaded run. Overseas numbers have also significantly slowed, with just over $300 million worldwide so far. Thankfully, Christmas break will help kids catch up with the characters.


WTM HeroPoster.jpgFinally, Robert Zemeckis, Steve Carell and Universal suffered a misfire this weekend with Welcome to Marwen. The quirky historical drama only managed $2.4 million in ninth place (weak $1,234 per-venue average). Originally positioned as an awards contender, the PG-13 pic failed to bring in any nominations and ended up with scathing reception. On a budget of $39 million and a "B-" CinemaScore, this will likely fade fast from theaters. This marks distributor Universal's second-straight flop, after last weekend's catastrophe Mortal Engines.












Rounding out the Top 10, historical drama Mary Queen of Scots expanded to nearly 800 locations with decent results. The potential awards season contender earned $2.2 million, for a $3.5 million pick-up since its limited start 17 days ago. If awards buzz builds over the next month, the film could find more of an audience as time goes on.

And that's about it. Next weekend will bring Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly for Christmas as Holmes and Watson opens alongside historical drama Vice in wide release. I will be taking this week off from a predictions post due to the holidays, and post another weekend report next Sunday. Also stay tuned over the next few days for a review of Aquaman.