Based on my predictions, overall business should be up from last year (but that would not be an apples-to-apples comparison, as Christmas Eve landed on Sunday last year and deflated grosses altogether).
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Aquaman ($74 million)
DC is definitely in need of a major win, after Justice League was a critical and commercial disappointment. Luckily for Warner Bros., buzz and overall word-of-mouth heading into release is fairly strong. Maybe not on a record-breaking level, but still very good by all means. Jason Momoa's character was well-liked in Justice League, and the character is among one of the more popular in the DC line-up. I would expect a solid opening in line with solo Marvel films early on in this decade. But, even if it underwhelms a bit, it will make up ground thanks to the holidays.
#2: Mary Poppins Returns ($34 million, $42 million 5-day)
After earning a lower-than-expected $4.8 million on Wednesday, this Disney sequel will be hoping to make up ground over the weekend. But this highly-anticipated follow-up to the 1964 classic has been earning strong buzz from families over the past few weeks, no doubt due to Disney's strong marketing effort. While a $42 million 5-day start wouldn't be spectacular, it would still set the film up for a lucrative run over the coming weeks. Remember The Greatest Showman? That film only earned $15 million in its first five days, but would have unbelievable holding power on its way to a $175 million final gross. With some awards chatter, Poppins seems set for a long run.
#3: Bumblebee ($23 million)
It's going to be hard for this Transformers prequel to really pull in a lot of attention. Despite strong reception from critics and some solid buzz, the competition is really stiff. If anything, Bumblebee seems more likely to find footing after Christmas when older kids are looking for movies to see. However, if the film disappoints, its going to be more due to the waning interest in the franchise as a whole rather than the competition.
#4: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse ($20 million, -43%)
Even with stellar word-of-mouth, I would not expect this to have a strong hold. With three new competitors aiming for its audience, its' going to be difficult for it to hold on to its audience. That being said, being a PG-rated cartoon, Spider-Man will likely rebound in a strong way next week.
#5: The Mule ($11.5 million, -32%)
The new competitors this weekend aren't looking to dent Clint Eastwood, who is attracting an audience largely not interested in the appealing newbies. While reception hasn't been amazing per se, overall interest from older audiences should keep the movie chugging along through the season.
#6: The Grinch ($8.5 million, -27%)
While competition remains a factor, the Christmas theme should keep Grinch going this weekend.
#7: Second Act ($7 million)
In a counter-programming move for adults, Jennifer Lopez enters the fray with this musical romantic comedy. The PG-13 flick hasn't earned any real strong buzz or anticipation from audiences, but it might succeed in pulling in females not interested in the bigger new releases. However, Lopez is not nearly as strong of a draw as she used to be, and that doesn't help here either.
#8: Ralph Breaks the Internet ($5.5 million, -40%)
With added competition from another Disney flick, Ralph looks to continue eroding faster than usual for a Disney film over the holidays. That's not a bad thing at this point, though, as it too will benefit from kids rushing out to the movies over Christmas break.
#9 (tie): Welcome to Marwen ($3.5 million)
This unique film from Robert Zemeckis and Steve Carell has unfortunately not pulled in the awards season buzz that it was once pegged to have. Early critical reception hasn't been kind either. Despite both names being solid draws, this may be a case of the marketplace being too crowded for this kind of movie.
#9 (tie): Mortal Engines ($3.5 million, -54%)
2 new PG-13 competitors. Lack of awareness, buzz, and strong word-of-mouth. This all equals a fast fade for the Peter Jackson disappointment.
