Overall, the second (or third?) weekend of the summer season looks to be a pretty solid one. Overall business could match this same weekend last year.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Avengers: Infinity War ($62 million, -46%)
It's tough to tell at this point how well this movie will hold. Many fans have already seen it (and made memes on social media about it). But, the lack of any real competition this weekend will help Infinity War keep the top spot for a third-straight weekend with a better hold than last weekend. If Infinity War matches this forecast, it will have the fourth-biggest third weekend on record, behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($90.2 million), Avatar ($68.5 million) and Black Panther ($66.3 million). Of course, the film could hold even better thanks to strong word-of-mouth and challenge for third or second place.
#2: Life of the Party ($21 million)
Melissa McCarthy is definitely a solid bet at the box office these days. Her last film, The Boss pulled in $25 million on its debut weekend. Just about all of her films have pulled in at least $20 million for their debut. This one could very well benefit from a more teen-friendly PG-13 rating (her other efforts are usually R), as well as Mother's Day being on Sunday. However, despite a strong marketing effort, overall buzz has been fairly weak. Reviews being embargoed until right before release isn't a good sign either. In the end, I'm going to bet on this opening around the same ballfield as Boss and Tammy ($21 million).
#3: Breaking in ($13 million)
This is one I have seen barely any marketing for, and the weak buzz shows it too. The Mother's Day release seems appropriate, and could pull this one to higher than expected numbers. But the Universal release isn't looking to really be a major breakout hit. Instead, look for numbers along the lines of non-Madea Tyler Perry movies.
#4: Overboard ($8.5 million, -43%)
This comedy probably will be prevented from having a strong hold thanks to new PG-13 competition.
#5: A Quiet Place ($5.5 million, -30%)
The critically-adored horror hit should continue to have strong holds down the line.
#6: I Feel Pretty ($3.5 million, -30%)
Mother's Day should allow Amy Schumer to have one more solid weekend, though plenty of PG-13 competition may say otherwise.
#7: Rampage ($3 million, -34%)
Audiences who have already seen Avengers will probably try to catch up with this one.
#8: Tully ($2.5 million, -24%)
Strong reviews and a likely expansion plus no real competition should allow the indie flick to have one of the strongest holds of the weekend.
#9: Black Panther ($2 million, -39%)
Panther will likely have one last hurrah in the Top 10, before its' Blu-ray release next Tuesday and competition from Deadpool 2 arrives next Friday (though its' already out on digital, which could signal a stronger drop).
Below that, tenth place is going to be a close battle between three holdovers around $1 million apiece (Blockers, Truth or Dare and Super Troopers 2).
