Overall box office will once again falter behind this same weekend last year, which had the $177 million debut of the remake of Beauty and the Beast.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Tomb Raider ($27 million)
It's going to be very close, but I think the video game remake should have what it takes to steal the top spot. The Lara Croft video games still are fairly popular, and there really hasn't been any real action movie in the marketplace since Black Panther. The combination of action and Alicia Vikander should make for a widely-appealing draw. Now this debut is nothing special, and if reviews are negative, this forecast could be a little too generous. But right now, I think it will perform OK.
#2: Black Panther ($24.5 million, -40%)
It very well might have a fifth-straight week at the top spot. But, Tomb Raider is the first real action movie its' had to compete against so far, so it's going to be very close. But I would expect a drop a little more than last weekend because of the competition. Regardless, however, the blockbuster will easily pass $600 million stateside this weekend.
#3: A Wrinkle in Time ($17.5 million, -48%)
Mixed word-of-mouth doesn't spell good news for this book adaptation. But, a lack of any competition for its target family audience should keep its drop from being outrageous.
#4: Love, Simon ($15 million)
The teenage dramedy is definitely a unique bird. Some teenagers and adults will likely flock to it, while others will flat-out avoid it. Reviews for the Greg Berlanti flick have been fantastic so far (91% on Rotten Tomatoes), so it could possibly overperform.
#5: Game Night ($5.5 million, -30%)
The adult comedy continues to benefit from strong word-of-mouth, and should make it a fourth-straight week in the Top 5.
#6: I Can Only Imagine ($5 million)
This is a tough movie to predict, as there's been no official theater count yet (estimates have it between 1,000 and 1,500). But, this faith-based flick has had pretty strong buzz for its' genre over the past few weeks (the Facebook "Like" count for its page is the largest among wide releases this weekend. Its' twice the amount of Tomb Raider and over three times more than Love, Simon). Directors Jon and Andrew Erwin had their last movie Woodlawn debut to $4 million back in 2015. I think this one will inch up a little from that movie.
#7 (tie): Peter Rabbit ($4.5 million, -34%)
Once again, a lack of competition for its family audience will allow the Beatrix Potter adaptation to continue playing strong in its sixth weekend.
#7 (tie): Strangers: Prey at Night ($4.5 million, -59%)
Horror flicks usually have strong drops in their second weekends. This one should be no different.
#9: Red Sparrow ($4 million, -52%)
The Jennifer Lawrence flick should continue dropping fast thanks to mixed word-of-mouth.
#10: Death Wish ($3 million, -55%)
Mixed word-of-mouth also signals another heavy drop for the Bruce Willis thriller.
Meanwhile, Universal/Focus Features releases action thriller 7 Days in Entebbe in 700 locations. But with mediocre buzz and awareness, it will likely not break into the Top 10.
