Monday, January 2, 2017

New Year's Weekend Box Office Report: "Rogue One", "Sing" Continue to Bring in the Crowds as 2016 Ends on Stunning Note.

It was a solid end to 2016, as all major movies pulled in at least a decent crowd.

As what many expected, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story remained easily at #1. The spin-off was off 23% from last weekend to $49.5 million over the three-day, and a projected $64.3 million through Monday. In just 18 days, Rogue One has earned a massive $439.7 million, ranking as the second-biggest movie of 2016 behind Finding Dory ($486 million). Overall, Rogue One is playing slightly more front-loaded than The Force Awakens thus far, which had pulled in a massive $742 million through this same point. Obviously, the film will drop like a rock next weekend as kids are heading back to school and parents are heading back to work. But, Disney still should be impressed with how this has played. At its current rate, Rogue One is on track for a finish between $525 and $550 million, which would rank it as either the sixth or seventh biggest movie ever in the U.S. Word-of-mouth continues to be solid.





Overseas, Rogue One continues to dominate with a worldwide gross of $775 million through its third weekend of release. With China still to open, it is likely the spin-off will finish north of $1 billion worldwide. It may or may not be able to catch Captain America: Civil War ($1.153 billion) for #1 for 2016 releases, but honestly, I don't think Disney cares at this point.

The other major player for the holidays was Universal and Illumination Entertainment's Sing, which pulled in massive crowds over Christmas break. The animated musical was up 21% from last weekend to $42.8 million, for a projected $56.4 million gross through Monday. In 12 days, Sing has earned a massive $180 million, the best showing ever for an animated flick opening during the holidays. It has also pulled in another $100 million overseas so far. With Monster Trucks not expected to be a major competitor, Sing will likely play well through January and February on its way to a final gross of $250 million or more. Against just a $75 million budget, that's huge.

Well below those two, Passengers chugged along with modest numbers, up 7% from last weekend to $16.2 million, and a projected $20.7 million through Monday. Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence have picked up $66 million in 12 days. The domestic gross should wind up around the same as Pratt's previous movie, The Magnificent Seven ($93 million). The budget was $110 million not including marketing, so the movie will have to be bailed out overseas. So far, the results are promising with a $66 million start across most territories.

Disney Animation's Moana kept pulling in a decent audience, up 42% from last weekend to $11 million, and a projected $14.3 million through Monday. The Mouse House's latest has earned $213.4 million since its' release 38 days ago, passing the final gross of Tangled ($200.8 million) and becoming the year's fourth animated movie to pass the $200 million mark (Sing will be the fifth in a week or so). Moana should continue to play for a few more weeks, and will probably finish in line with Pixar's Brave ($237 million). Worldwide, it passed $400 million with more to go.

Last weekend's comedy release, Why Him?, has done solidly over the holiday season. The James Franco and Bryan Cranston flick was off just 4% from Christmas weekend to $10.6 million, and a projected $13 million through Monday. In eight days, Why Him? has earned $37.6 million, essentially matching its production budget ($38 million). A final gross in the $60 million range would be respectable.

Denzel Washington's possible awards season contender Fences followed with more solid business, up 50% from its Christmas Day opening to $10 million, and a projected $12.7 million though Monday. Fences has earned $32.4 million since its limited launch 17 days ago, and should find even better holding power in the weeks ahead with the Oscar nominations just around the corner.

Fellow potential Oscar contender La La Land continued to amaze, up 66% to $9.5 million, and a projected $12.3 million through Monday. Need I remind everyone, La La Land is playing in only 750 locations, which means its' per-venue average edges out Rogue One for the best average of the weekend among the Top 15 ($12,707 for the 3-day). Since its limited debut 24 days ago, the Damien Chazelle musical spectacular has pulled in $37 million, with a likely wide expansion coming up.

Sliding to eighth place, Assassin's Creed failed to pull in major business over break. The video game adaptation was off 16% from last weekend to $8.6 million, and a projected $10.9 million through Monday. The Michael Fassbender film is at a disappointing $41.9 million in 10 days, and will likely finish around $55 million. That is only a small improvement over Warcraft ($47 million), and puts the film in danger of spilling a lot of red ink as it was produced for $125 million (and early overseas results aren't promising either).

Once again, three potential Oscar contenders made the Top 10 as Manchester by the Sea made its way back into the list. The drama from Amazon Studios was up 53% from last weekend to $4.2 million, and a projected $5.5 million through Monday. With $29.7 million since its limited start 49 days ago, Manchester is primed to continue growing thanks to the Oscar nominations coming up shortly. For the three-day weekend, Collateral Beauty rounded out the Top 10 with a slight 3% slide to $4.2 million, and $5.3 million projected through Monday. Will Smith's critical disappointment has only managed $27 million in 18 days, and doesn't have much further to go. 

Including Monday, the extended frame has Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in 10th place with $5.4 million (up 40% over three-day to $4.1 million). The Harry Potter prequel has played very well through the holidays, with a very solid $225.4 million in 50 days of release. Worldwide, it is at a very strong $775 million, and about to pass Deadpool ($783 million) for eighth place on the 2016 list worldwide.

And that is it. Overall business for 2016 officially clocked in at $11.37 billion. Well, it's hard to believe this will be my last box office post for awhile. I'm going to miss writing this every week. But you can always keep track of how movies are doing every week on some of my favorite sites such as www.boxofficemojo.com and www.boxofficeguru.com.