Sunday, November 20, 2016

Weekend Box Office Report: "Fantastic Beasts" Debuts on Top, with Less Power than "Harry Potter".

Overall business was off 10% from this same weekend last year when The Hunger Games - Mockingjay: Part 2 opened on top with $102 million.


Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them poster.pngAs what everyone expected, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them easily took the #1 spot. J.K. Rowling's prequel to the Harry Potter movies pulled in $75 million, for a strong $18,098 per-venue average from 4,144 locations. Considering the immense popularity of the Harry Potter movies, the $180 million production budget and the massive marketing effort by Warner Bros., this debut could be seen as a bit of a disappointment. This debut was less than all of the Harry Potter films (un-adjusted for inflation), and for mid-November, it's more typical for films to open with $100 million or higher. However, it might be unfair to compare this to the others I just mentioned, as it's largely an original project (not based on a popular pre-existing book). Plus, not being a sequel, plus the Thanksgiving holiday will certainly help it have better holding power than other fantasy flicks. Reviews were very good (76% on Rotten Tomatoes), and the CinemaScore was an "A". Warner Bros. didn't release a projection this weekend, but many pegged a $75-80 million start.


Overseas, conversely, Fantastic Beasts got off to a great start, with $144 million, for a $220 million worldwide launch. It broke records for the Wizarding World franchise in many countries. It still has yet to open in China and Japan, which are typically huge for special effects extravaganzas. Ultimately, Fantastic Beasts looks set to pull in at least $500 million worldwide for its entire run.

After topping the last two weeks, as expected, Doctor Strange took a hit from Fantastic Beasts. Marvel's latest was down 59% in its third weekend to $17.7 million, for a very good $181.5 million gross in 17 days. Strange has passed the final grosses of the first Captain America, Thor and Ant-Man movies, and will pass $200 million probably by the end of Thanksgiving weekend. Overseas, it continues to do massive business, with $575 million so far (and Japan still to open).

Just a hair behind in third was DreamWorks Animation's Trolls, which also took a nosedive due to losing some families to the Wizarding World. The musical comedy was down 50% to $17.5 million, for a good $116.4 million pick-up in 17 days. Disney's Moana opens on Wednesday, though the Thanksgiving holiday will help the movie stay afloat. Overseas, it continues to chug along as it has passed $250 million worldwide.

Last weekend's top opener, Arrival, followed with a 51% decline to $11.8 million, as word-of-mouth is apparently not that great for the Amy Adams thriller. However, a $43.4 million pick-up in 10 days is still pretty good in comparison to a $47 million budget. Faring worse was Almost Christmas, which fell 54% to $7 million, for a decent, if unspectacular $25.4 million gross in the same amount of time. Both will hope to have better staying power over the extended frame. Having the best hold of the list was Hacksaw Ridge, which was off 37% in its third weekend to $6.8 million. Mel Gibson's critically-adored war story has pulled in $42.9 million in 17 days, and with Thanksgiving, should reach $60 million.

Opening in seventh place with mediocre results was the teen comedy The Edge of Seventeen. Despite earning strong reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes), the Hailee Steinfeld flick only managed to pull in $4.8 million, for a weak $2,481 per-venue average. That was way below expectations, which many had it hitting $10 million. It's likely that the R rating here limited its audience greatly (considering its a teen-focused comedy). The budget was only $9 million, so any financial loss here for distributor STX Entertainment will be light. The CinemaScore was an "A-".

Edge of Seventeen did fare a lot better than the next new wide release, Bleed for This. The Miles Teller flick only managed $2.4 million in a distant eighth, for an abysmal $1,522 per-venue average. Many had forecasted at least $5 million for the boxing drama, and reviews weren't bad (63% on Rotten Tomatoes) either. Thankfully for distributor Open Road Films, the budget was only $6 million, so any financial loss will be small. The film received an "A-" CinemaScore.

Starting to approach to the end of its run, The Accountant was off 52% in its sixth weekend to $2.1 million. The Ben Affleck film has pulled in a very solid $81.3 million in 36 days. Rounding out the Top 10 was Shut-in, as the horror pic was off 55% to $1.6 million. The poorly-reviewed scarefest has pulled in an unmemorable $6 million in 10 days with very little to go.

Expanding to nearly 1,200 locations, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk flopped hard on its face, with just $930,000 in 14th place (averaging just $791 per theater despite opening in IMAX). The book adaptation had negative reviews (43% on Rotten Tomatoes) and hardly any buzz. The Ang Lee film was produced for $40 million, and will go down as one of the year's priciest misfires.

Next weekend, its Thanksgiving (I will have a predictions post up tomorrow), one of my favorite weekends to track! Leading the charge and likely to take the top spot is Disney's latest princess musical Moana, which is earning spectacular early reviews. Also debuting is Brad Pitt-Marion Cotillard's WWII romance Allied, comedy sequel Bad Santa 2 and 1950's dramedy Rules Don't Apply. It should be a packed weekend, so stay tuned for more info.