Overall business should land far ahead of last year's dismal Thanksgiving frame. Here is the projected Top 10 for the 5-day.
#1: Moana ($59 million) ($84 million 5-day)
#2: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them ($39 million, -48%) ($55 million 5-day)
#3: Allied ($14 million) ($18.5 million 5-day)
#4: Doctor Strange ($13.5 million, -24%) ($18.5 million 5-day)
#5: Trolls ($12 million, -32%) ($17 million 5-day)
#6: Bad Santa 2 ($10 million) ($13 million 5-day)
#7: Arrival ($9.5 million, -20%) ($12 million 5-day)
#8: Hacksaw Ridge ($6 million, -12%) ($8 million 5-day)
#9: Rules Don't Apply ($5.5 million) ($7.5 million 5-day)
#10: Almost Christmas ($5 million, -29%) ($7 million 5-day)
Disney Animation returns (in its most successful weekend to open one of their movies) with their second offering of the year, musical powerhouse Moana. Promoted for several months, the Polynesian fairy tale (of sorts) is tracking for a huge debut this weekend. Whether or not it matches or exceeds the debut of Frozen ($93 million 5-day) is currently uncertain, but it should come close. Disney Animation has been on a roll the last few years with fellow Thanksgiving opener Tangled, Big Hero 6 and earlier this year's blockbuster and critical success Zootopia ($1 billion worldwide). Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson being in the film certainly will help pull in some boys. Lin Manuel-Miranda's involvement in the music will pull in Broadway fans as well. Reviews are fantastic (at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes thus far), which will only help pull in those on the fence.
The others aren't looking like they will have nearly as much support. Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard's romantic wartime thriller Allied should pull in decent business thanks to Pitt's fanbase, the strong marketing effort, and director Robert Zemeckis being behind it. Bad Santa 2 will appeal to comedy and holiday movie fans, but it probably won't pull in much, especially with early bad reviews (22% on Rotten Tomatoes) and arriving 13 years after its predecessor. Finally, Warren Beatty's Rules Don't Apply will go after older moviegoers, and probably will only pull in a small number due to limited buzz and awareness. Reviews are solid though (67% on Rotten Tomatoes).
Meanwhile, most holdovers should see small declines from last weekend. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them looks to play a strong second, though it will probably drop harder than the rest due to the Harry Potter fanbase already coming out to see it some last weekend. Other larger drops will likely go to Trolls and Almost Christmas due to stronger competition,
