Thursday, September 8, 2016

Weekend Box Office Predictions for September 9-11, 2016.

Here is the projected Top 10, business looks to be down from this same weekend last year:

#1: Sully ($20 million)
#2: When the Bough Breaks ($11 million)
#3: The Disappointments Room ($8.5 million)
#4: Don't Breathe ($7.5 million, -53%)
#5: Suicide Squad ($5 million, -49%)
#6: The Wild Life ($4 million)#7: Kubo and the Two Strings ($3.5 million, -45%)
      Pete's Dragon ($3.5 million, -44%)
#9: Sausage Party ($3 million, -40%)
#10: Bad Moms ($2.8 million, -41%)

Sully is looking to be one of the big early awards season contenders, with star Tom Hanks looking for a Best Actor nomination. Reviews have been good so far (73% on Rotten Tomatoes), and also boasts director Clint Eastwood, an 86-year old who has quite a fanbase. Look for this one to probably outdo Hanks' last major stab at awards season, Bridge of Spies.

When the Bough Breaks is aiming for a similar audience to last year's hit The Perfect Guy, which pulled in $25 million in its debut. Whether or not it succeeds will depend on how its target audience (African-Americans) respond to it. Right now, buzz doesn't seem to be great, but this could be a movie that could way outperform what I'm expecting it to do.

The Disappointments Room opens this weekend riding the strong streak for horror flicks. However, that's mostly because a lot of those movies had great reviews going for it, whereas no new reviews have come in here. Fatigue from strong business for the genre is sure to set in here too, and the film is only opening in 1,500 locations, another sign that business will likely be held down.

The Wild Life has had some marketing, but distributor Lionsgate is just basically dumping this one here. The Robinson Crusoe adaptation is showing just about no interest from family audiences, who's kids will be back in school and not really interested in a new movie at this time. Reviews are actually not horrible (45% on Rotten Tomatoes). Look for a debut in line with Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return and Hoodwinked Too!

Last weekend's topper (and all Summer leftovers) will likely come down to earth this weekend. Don't Breathe will have a bit of competition, but should still pull in some crowds. Suicide Squad will remain in the mix, even though it is starting to come down to the final leg of its run. Kubo and Pete's Dragon have new competition this weekend, even though its not really that much. The best holds of the returning starters will likely go to the pair of R-rated surprises from late-Summer, Sausage Party and Bad Moms.