Overall business looks to be close to the same frame last year, which was Memorial Day Weekend (in that case, its not a direct apples-to-apples comparison).
#1: Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising ($44 million)
#2: Captain America: Civil War ($41 million, -44%)
#3: The Angry Birds Movie ($37 million)
#4: The Nice Guys ($21 million)
#5: The Jungle Book ($10.5 million, -39%)
#6: Money Monster ($10 million, -32%)
#7: The Darkness ($2.5 million, -50%)
#8: Mother's Day ($2 million, -39%)
#9: Zootopia ($1.5 million, -48%)
The Huntsman: Winter's War ($1.5 million, -42%)
Neighbors 2 is coming out after the breakout success of the first Neighbors ($150 million stateside), and is getting fairly good reviews (67% on Rotten Tomatoes). Buzz has been pretty good, and there really hasn't been any R-rated comedies this year that adults have gotten excited about. Look for a very strong start here, and could very well come closer to the first movie's $54 million start.
The Angry Birds Movie has seen solid buzz, and why not? It's based off a popular app that swept the nation back in the early part of this decade. And for some kids, its still popular. Reviews are fairly decent so far (57% on Rotten Tomatoes), but the big advantage here is that it's the first major animated movie out for families since Zootopia. Sony Pictures Animation has yet to have a major blockbuster on the level of Pixar or Disney, and they won't get that here. Instead, look for an opening more along the lines of Epic and the Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs movies.
The Nice Guys is also opening this weekend, and may be overshadowed by the other choices for mainstream choices. What may combat that, though, is that Shane Black's film landed on many people's Top 10 anticipated lists for 2016, even ahead of most of the films from this summer. But, the same thing could be said of Hail, Ceasar! ($31 million), which came in under expectations. The R rating may also hold audiences back. But the reviews so far have been fantastic (96% on Rotten Tomatoes), which could sway many people on the fence. Don't be surprised if this passes $20 million.
Taken at face value, competition for Captain America: Civil War really isn't too bad this weekend. The two R-rated films are aiming for more mature audiences, while Angry Birds is more aiming for younger children. The overall hold should be stronger this weekend, as positive word-of-mouth and strong reviews should start to kick in. Also, superhero fans will probably try to see this one more time before X-Men: Apocalypse comes in next weekend.
The Jungle Book will likely, however, lose a chunk of its audience to Angry Birds. That especially will go for 12 week-old Zootopia, who will make it's final bow in this list this week as Disney has Alice Through the Looking Glass opening next week (they can't have too many films in wide release, can they?). The Nice Guys may or may not take a chunk out of Money Monster's audience, but that one appeals more toward an older audience that may come out this weekend. Same for Mother's Day (though I may be a bit too optimistic). Meanwhile, The Darkness will fall prey to horror movie standards, and The Huntsman: Winter's War will quietly round out the list with little fanfare.
