Saturday, November 28, 2015

Thanksgiving Box Office Update #3: "Hunger Games" Easily in First, but Still Trailing its Predecessors, "Dinosaur" Solid but Unspectacular at #2, "Creed" Ahead of Expectations.

The Hunger Games - Mockingjay - Part II easily remained #1 on Friday, and did get a sizable bump from Thursday, if not quite as much as the previous two movies. The finale in the Hunger Games franchise jumped up 104% from Thursday to $21.3 million. In comparison, Part I increased 118% to $24.2 million, while Catching Fire increased 111% to $31.6 million. Should it play out like its predecessors, it will drop to around $19 million on Saturday, before dropping harder on Sunday due to the strong Friday bump-up. The 3-day and 5-day projections have been lowered a bit to $51.5 million and $75.5 million.

The Good Dinosaur jumped up from Thanksgiving, as expected, increasing 139% to $15.7 million, for a 3-day total of $32 million. That's not quite as strong as Frozen (143%), Tangled (144%) and Penguins of Madagascar (169%), but its still not too far off. If it plays out like those comparable titles, the Saturday gross will drop a bit to $14.5 million before plunging on Sunday. At this moment, the 3-day and 5-day grosses have been lowered from earlier this week to $38.5 million over the 3-day and $55 million for the 5-day period. That's on the low-end for Pixar, unfortunately, but, it should rank as the fourth-biggest opening to date for Thanksgiving weekend behind the aforementioned Disney movies and fellow Pixar flick Toy Story 2.

Following a bump up from Wednesday to Thursday, Creed didn't quite pick up steam as much as the rest of the field. The Rocky continuation perked up 81% from Thursday to $11.7 million, for a still strong $24.2 million 3-day pick-up. Creed should play typically like a Thanksgiving release, drop back slightly on Saturday before losing more steam on Sunday (before possibly playing well through the holiday season). At this moment, the 3-day and 5-day projections have been lowered a little bit to $28.5 million and $41 million, respectively.

Spectre jumped up 97% from Thursday to $5.3 million. In comparison, the previous James Bond movie, Skyfall, was up 92% from Thanksgiving Thursday. At its current pace, the film's 3-day and 5-day projections have been adjusted up slightly: $12.5 million for the 3-day and $18 million for the 5-day.

The Peanuts Movie rebounded from its harsh drop Thanksgiving day, and went up a massive 179% to $4 million on Friday. That's the biggest Thanksgiving Thursday-to-Friday jump for an animated movie in the last 5 years, ahead of Penguins' 169% jump. If Peanuts plays like MegaMind, Puss in Boots and Happy Feet Two over the weekend, it should hold relatively steady on Saturday before dropping on Sunday. The 3-day and 5-day forecasts have been adjusted back up a little, to $10 million and $14 million.

The Night Before went up 94% in sixth place to $3.2 million, and the 3-day/5-day track remains unchanged ($8 million 3-day/$11.5 million 5-day).

The rest of the Top 10 includes (marked whether it was up from earlier projections, in line, or down):

#7: The Secret in Their Eyes ($1.7 million, +124%) ($4 million 3-day, $5.5 million 4-day, up)
#8: Spotlight ($1.65 million, +187%) ($4 million 3-day, $5.5 million 4-day, up)
#9: Brooklyn ($1.4 million, +196%) ($3.5 million 3-day, $4.5 million 4-day, up)
#10: The Martian ($1.3 million, +111%) ($3.2 million 3-day, $4.4 million 4-day, in line)
#11: Love the Coopers ($1.2 million, +62%) ($3 million 3-day, $4.3 million 4-day, up)
#12: Victor Frankenstein ($905,000, +91%) ($2 million 3-day, $3.1 million 4-day, down)

Weekend report coming tomorrow evening. Also coming later, reviews for The Good Dinosaur and Mockingjay - Part II.