Overall business will still be up from last Thanksgiving.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part II easily held the top spot on Wednesday, and actually wound up closer to Part I on Wednesday. The final installment of the Hunger Games trilogy added $13.75 million on Wednesday, for a solid $136.3 million gross in 6 days. In comparison, Part I earned a slightly-larger $14.6 million on its sixth day, and had earned $21 million more through the same point. Part I would go on to earn $57 million for the 3-day and $83 million for the 5-day weekend. If Part II plays out like Part I, it would drop to about $10 million on Thanksgiving Day, before jumping up to around $22 million on Friday. I am predicting a $52 million 3-day weekend, and a $76 million five-day Thanksgiving frame.
The Good Dinosaur opened in second place with decent, if unspectacular numbers. Pixar's latest opened to $9.8 million on Friday. In comparison, Penguins of Madagascar earned $6.1 million on its opening Wednesday last year, while Tangled pulled in $11.8 million in 2010 and Frozen earned $15.1 million in 2013. Dinosaur has earned an "A" CinemaScore, which means it will play closer to the latter two of those three comparisons. (I have seen it review, coming soon) If Dinosaur plays out like Tangled, it will fall back to around $7 million on Thursday before jumping up to around $17 million on Friday. At its current rate, I'm going to guess $42.5 million for the three day, and $59 million for the five-day frame. That's kinda soft for Pixar, but not bad for Thanksgiving. But then again, it could perk up higher over the weekend, so we'll have to wait and see.
Creed had a good start, opening to $6 million on Friday. There aren't a lot of direct comparisons, but the strongly-received flick (92% on Rotten Tomatoes) earned an "A" CinemaScore, so it could play well in the coming days and weeks. Right now, I'm going to guess $24 million over the 3-day and $35 million over the extended 5-day frame.
Spectre added $2.7 million on Wednesday, up 22% from Tuesday. Meanwhile, in the face of new competition, The Peanuts Movie ticked up 12% from Tuesday to $2.5 million. Spectre is at $160.6 million in 20 days. In comparison, Skyfall earned $7.4 million on the Wednesday of Thanksgiving weekend (it was in its 3rd frame while Spectre is in its 4th). I wouldn't expect Spectre to tick up slightly like its predecessor on Thanksgiving, but it should still hold decently on its way to a weekend of $11.5 million, and a 5-day stretch of $16.5 million.
Peanuts Wednesday gross is comparable to MegaMind, which earned $2.7 million on Wednesday on its way to a $17.3 million 5-day pick-up. Peanuts should play similarly (drop slightly on Thursday before rebounding largely on Friday), on its way to a 3-day weekend of $12 million, and a $16.5 million 5-day stretch. It may edge out Spectre for fourth place over the weekend if it plays out like this.
The Night Before went up 9% from Tuesday to $1.7 million, for a $14.2 million 6-day gross. Look for a better-than-the-rest hold on Thanksgiving due to the Holiday theme, followed by a nice rebound on Friday. I'd say look for a $7 million 3-day and $10 million 5-day, in line with its opening 3-day weekend. The Secret in Their Eyes, on the other hand, fell 9% from Tuesday to $730,000, and should be set for a $3.5 million 3-day and $5 million 5-day, not a great hold for Thanksgiving. It will be competing for seventh place with Spotlight, which is also on track for a $3.5 million 3-day/$5 million 5-day, as arthouse releases/Oscar contenders usually have stronger staying power over Thanksgiving weekend.
Victor Frankenstein opened all the way down in ninth place with just $620,000 on Wednesday. In comparison, The Book Thief opened to $725,000 on its way to a $6.4 million 5-day start. Victor's critical reception is scathing, so it won't hold as well over the weekend. I'd look for a $3.5 million 3-day start, and $4.5 million 5-day weekend. Fellow Fox flick The Martian rounded out the Top 10 with another $615,000 on Wednesday, up a robust 21% from Tuesday. Look for a $3.3 million 3-day and $4.3 million 5-day. Brooklyn was right behind it with $530,000, on its way to a $2.7 million 3-day, and $3.5 million 5-day.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I will post Thursday's results tomorrow late-afternoon.
